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PharmaPoint: Schizophrenia - 5EU Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Summary

Schizophrenia is a persistent long-term brain disorder that causes severe, debilitating psychotic episodes. Its core symptoms, auditory or visual hallucinations, are often accompanied by fixed, false, and often paranoid beliefs, called delusions. These two features are often combined with learning and cognitive deficits. WHO experts have estimated that roughly 24 million people are affected by schizophrenia worldwide. While the arrival of atypical antipsychotics has greatly expanded pharmacologic treatment options over the past two decades, the current drug market does not treat the negative and cognitive symptoms that are associated with the disease. GlobalData expects that the growing popularity of long-acting injectable (LAI) antipsychotics, along with the arrival of novel treatments that achieve higher efficacy in negative- and cognitive-predominant patients, will serve to stimulate growth in the marketplace over the forecast period. Country-specific treatment recommendations and policy implementation will be an essential metric for determining future mental health services in the 7MM.

France’s antipsychotics market will experience significant growth, driven by the introduction of new market entries, expanded access to care, and sociological variables. The German drug market enjoys some of the EU’s highest costs of prescription drugs; however, 90% of Germany’s population receives their medications from state-funded insurances. Latuda, Abilify Maintena, and aripiprazole lauroxil. Disease management in Italy shows a growing acceptance of LAIs into their treatment regimens. LAIs have been growing in popularity in Spain, and the high rate of atypical LAI prescribing over FGA LAIs suggests that prescribers are more comfortable with atypical LAIs. The use of LAIs is quite popular among UK psychiatrists, and the launches of LAI Abilify Maintena and aripiprazole lauroxil during the forecast period are expected to be met with readiness from UK physicians.

Scope

- Overview of Schizophrenia including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.
- Detailed information on the key drugs in 5EU including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.
- Sales forecast for the top drugs in 5EU from 2012-2022.
- Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting the 5EU Schizophrenia market.

Reasons to buy

- Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return
- Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for Schizophrenia.
- Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential
- Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance
- Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in 5EU.

Table Of Contents

PharmaPoint: Schizophrenia - 5EU Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022
1 Table of Contents

2 Introduction 13
2.1 Catalyst 13
2.2 Related Reports 14
2.3 Upcoming Reports 15
3 Disease Overview 16
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 16
3.1.1 Etiology 16
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 17
3.2 Symptoms 18
4 Disease Management 19
4.1 Diagnosis 19
4.1.1 Subjective Assessments 20
4.1.2 Disease Subtypes 21
4.2 Treatment Overview 23
4.2.1 Treatment of Acute Agitation Associated with Schizophrenia 26
4.2.2 Maintenance Treatment of Schizophrenia 27
4.3 France 28
4.3.1 Diagnosis 28
4.3.2 Clinical Practice 28
4.4 Germany 29
4.4.1 Diagnosis 29
4.4.2 Clinical Practice 30
4.5 Italy 31
4.5.1 Diagnosis 31
4.5.2 Clinical Practice 31
4.6 Spain 32
4.6.1 Diagnosis 32
4.6.2 Clinical Practice 33
4.7 UK 34
4.7.1 Diagnosis 34
4.7.2 Clinical Practice 34
5 Competitive Assessment 36
5.1 Overview 36
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 37
5.3 Product Profiles by Generation 38
5.3.1 Conventional Antipsychotics 38
5.3.2 Atypical Antipsychotics 41
6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 74
6.1 Unmet Needs Overview 74
6.1.1 Public Awareness 75
6.1.2 Early Diagnosis and Treatment 77
6.1.3 Long-Acting and Advanced Drug Delivery Systems 78
6.1.4 Effective Management of Negative and Cognitive Symptom Domains 79
6.2 Gap Analysis 80
6.2.1 Long-Acting Drug Delivery 81
6.2.2 Treatment of Negative and Cognitive Symptoms 81
7 Pipeline Assessment 82
7.1 Overview 82
7.2 Early-Stage Pipeline Assessment 82
7.3 Novel Therapeutic Approaches 83
7.3.1 Negative Symptoms 84
7.3.2 Cognitive Symptoms 84
7.4 Long-Acting Drug Delivery 84
7.5 Technology Trends Analysis 85
7.6 Key Drugs in Clinical Development 86
7.6.1 Aripiprazole Lauroxil 87
7.6.2 Cariprazine 92
7.6.3 Brexpiprazole 96
7.6.4 Zicronapine 99
7.6.5 Bitopertin 102
7.6.6 EVP-6124 105
8 Market Outlook 109
8.1 France 109
8.1.1 Forecast 109
8.1.2 Key Events 113
8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers 113
8.2 Germany 115
8.2.1 Forecast 115
8.2.2 Key Events 119
8.2.3 Drivers and Barriers 119
8.3 Italy 121
8.3.1 Forecast 121
8.3.2 Key Events 124
8.3.3 Drivers and Barriers 125
8.4 Spain 127
8.4.1 Forecast 127
8.4.2 Key Events 130
8.4.3 Drivers and Barriers 130
8.5 UK 131
8.5.1 Forecast 131
8.5.2 Key Events 134
8.5.3 Drivers and Barriers 134
9 Appendix 137
9.1 Bibliography 137
9.2 Abbreviations 147
9.3 Methodology 152
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 152
9.4.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Rates 152
9.4.2 Adherence Rates 153
9.4.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 153
9.4.4 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates 154
9.4.5 General Pricing Assumptions 155
9.4.6 Drug Assumptions 156
9.4.7 Generic Erosion 161
9.4.8 Pricing of Pipeline Agents 161
9.5 Key Opinion Leaders 163
9.6 About the Authors 164
9.6.1 Author 164
9.7 About GlobalData 165
9.8 Disclaimer 165

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Symptom Clusters of Schizophrenia 18
Table 2: Common Subjective Rating Scales Employed in Schizophrenia Diagnosis 21
Table 3: Development-Based Classification of Antipsychotic Drugs 24
Table 4: Receptor Binding Profiles of Atypical Antipsychotics 25
Table 5: Guidelines for the Treatment of Schizophrenia 26
Table 6: Leading Branded Treatments for Schizophrenia, 2013 38
Table 7: Strategic Competitor Assessment of the Marketed Products in Schizophrenia, 2014 38
Table 8: Chemical Classifications of FGAs 39
Table 9: Receptor Affinity Profiles for FGAs 40
Table 10: First-Generation Antipsychotics SWOT Analysis, 2013 41
Table 11: Product Profile - Abilify 44
Table 12: Abilify SWOT Analysis, 2014 47
Table 13: Product Profile - Saphris 48
Table 14: Saphris SWOT Analysis, 2013 50
Table 15: Product Profile - Clozaril 51
Table 16: Clozaril SWOT Analysis, 2014 52
Table 17: Product Profile - Fanapt 53
Table 18: Fanapt SWOT Analysis, 2014 55
Table 19: Product Profile - Latuda 56
Table 20: Latuda SWOT Analysis, 2014 57
Table 21: Product Profile - Zyprexa 59
Table 22: Zyprexa SWOT Analysis, 2014 62
Table 23: Product Profile - Invega 63
Table 24: Invega SWOT Analysis, 2013 65
Table 25: Product Profile - Seroquel 66
Table 26: Seroquel SWOT Analysis, 2013 67
Table 27: Product Profile - Risperdal 69
Table 28: Risperdal SWOT Analysis, 2013 71
Table 29: Product Profile - Geodon 72
Table 30: Geodon SWOT Analysis, 2013 73
Table 31: Unmet Needs - Current Level of Attainment 75
Table 32: Clinical Unmet Needs - Gap Analysis, 2013 80
Table 33: Technological Trends Analytic Framework in the Schizophrenia Pipeline, 2014 85
Table 34: Pipeline Candidates in Development for Schizophrenia, 2014 86
Table 35: Comparison of Novel Therapeutic Classes in Development for Schizophrenia, 2013 87
Table 36: Product Profile - Aripiprazole Lauroxil 88
Table 37: Aripiprazole Lauroxil SWOT Analysis, 2014 92
Table 38: Product Profile - Cariprazine 93
Table 39: Cariprazine SWOT Analysis, 2014 96
Table 40: Product Profile - Brexpiprazole 97
Table 41: Brexpiprazole SWOT Analysis, 2014 99
Table 42: Product Profile - Zicronapine 100
Table 43: Zicronapine SWOT Analysis, 2014 102
Table 44: Product Profile - Bitopertin 103
Table 45: Bitopertin SWOT Analysis, 2014 105
Table 46: Product Profile - EVP-6124 106
Table 47: EVP-6124 SWOT Analysis, 2014 108
Table 48: Sales Forecast ($m) for Schizophrenia in France, 2012-2022 111
Table 49: Key Events Impacting Sales for Schizophrenia in France, 2012-2022 113
Table 50: Schizophrenia Market in France - Drivers and Barriers, 2012-2022 113
Table 51: Sales Forecast ($m) for Schizophrenia in Germany, 2012-2022 117
Table 52: Key Events Impacting Sales for Schizophrenia in Germany, 2012-2022 119
Table 53: Schizophrenia Market in Germany - Drivers and Barriers, 2012-2022 119
Table 54: Sales Forecast ($m) for Schizophrenia in Italy, 2012-2022 122
Table 55: Key Events Impacting Sales for Schizophrenia in Italy, 2012-2022 124
Table 56: Schizophrenia Market in Italy - Drivers and Barriers, 2012-2022 125
Table 57: Sales Forecast ($m) for Schizophrenia in Spain, 2012-2022 128
Table 58: Key Events Impacting Sales for Schizophrenia in Spain, 2012-2022 130
Table 59: Schizophrenia Market in Spain - Drivers and Barriers, 2012-2022 130
Table 60: Sales Forecast ($m) for Schizophrenia in the UK, 2012-2022 132
Table 61: Key Events Impacting Sales for Schizophrenia in the UK, 2012-2022 134
Table 62: Schizophrenia Market in the UK - Drivers and Barriers, 2012-2022 134
Table 63: Key Launch Dates 154
Table 64: Key Patent Expirations 155

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Schizophrenia - Pipeline Drugs by Target, 2014 83
Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in Schizophrenia, 2012-2022 86
Figure 3: Sales for Schizophrenia in France by Drug Class, 2012-2022 112
Figure 4: Sales for Schizophrenia in Germany by Drug Class, 2012-2022 118
Figure 5: Sales for Schizophrenia in Italy by Drug Class, 2012-2022 123
Figure 6: Sales for Schizophrenia in Spain by Drug Class, 2012-2022 129
Figure 7: Sales for Schizophrenia in the UK by Drug Class, 2012-2022 133

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