BMI View: The volatility of demand in low-value and undeveloped IT markets such as those in Ghana,Kenya and Nigeria were underlined by the sharp downturn in 2014 and 2015. The decline in commodityand oil markets, and general increase in negative sentiment towards emerging markets resulted in currencydepreciation and erosion of purchasing power and sentiment, which was a negative shock in small andhighly price-sensitive markets. This served as a reality check on optimism regarding their economic growthtrajectory and IT markets as a lack of structural and institutional strength was laid bare. We expectimproved performance over the medium term, but caution that there is a long way to go before the rapidgrowth of IT spending observed in the higher income emerging markets is replicated in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Latest Updates & Developments
- Ghana Total IT Market Sales: GHS590mn in 2016 to GHS1.1bn in 2020, a compound annual growthrate (CAGR) of +16.7% in local currency terms. Ghana will continue to be a small and low-value retailand enterprise IT market, but a stronger economic outlook will see performance improve from 2014 and2015.
- Kenya Total IT Market Sales: KES47.3bn in 2016 to KES80.7bn in 2020, a CAGR of +14.3% in localcurrency terms. Kenya is the most developed IT market and we believe it has a stronger outlook than itspeers due to lower level of exposure to commodities market and greater modernisation momentum thatshould result in broader based economic growth.
- Nigeria Total IT Market Sales: NGN173.4bn in 2016 to NGN306.6bn in 2020, a CAGR of +15.3% inlocal currency terms. Nigeria is the largest market in the region, and has considerable long-term potential,but over our forecast period we believe low incomes and an unfavourable enterprise mix will constrainopportunities for vendors.
Table Of Contents
Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria Information Technology Report Q2 2016 BMI Industry View 7 SWOT 9 IT SWOT 9 Industry Forecast 11 Ghana 11 Latest Updates 11 Structural Trends 11 Table: Enterprise Trends - GVA By Vertical (Ghana 2015-2020) 15 Table: IT Industry - Historical Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2013-2020) 17 Kenya 17 Latest Updates 17 Structural Trends 17 Table: Enterprise Trends - GVA By Vertical (Kenya 2015-2020) 21 Table: IT Industry - Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2013-2020) 22 Nigeria 23 Latest Updates 23 Structural Trends 23 Table: Enterprise Trends - GVA By Vertical (Nigeria 2015-2020) 27 Table: IT Industry - Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2013-2020) 28 Internet Technology Risk/Reward Index 29 Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Index 29 Table: IT RRI Scores By Region 30 Table: MEA IT Risk/Reward Index - Q216 32 Market Overview 33 Ghana 33 Hardware 33 Software 37 Services 40 Kenya 43 Hardware 43 Software 48 Services 54 Nigeria 58 Hardware 58 Software 63 Services 68 Industry Trends And Developments 73 Ghana 73 Kenya 77 Nigeria 81 Regulatory Development 84 Ghana 84 Table: NITA 84 Recent Developments 85 Kenya 88 Table: KICTA 88 Table: Kenya - 2013 ICT Masterplan Strategic Goals 89 Recent Developments 89 Nigeria 91 Table: NITDA 91 Recent Developments 91 Competitive Landscape 94 Ghana 94 Table: Intercom Programming and Manufacturing Company (IPMC) 94 Table: Persol Systems Limited 95 Table: RLG Communications 96 Kenya 97 Table: Craft Silicon 97 Table: IBM 97 Table: Seven Seas Technology (SST) 99 Nigeria 100 Table: Computer Warehouse Group (CWG) 100 Table: Systemspecs 102 Table: Zinox Technologies 103 Regional Overview 104 Demographic Forecast 108 Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ghana 1990-2025) 109 Table: Key Population Ratios (Ghana 1990-2025) 109 Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Ghana 1990-2025) 110 Table: Population By Age Group (Ghana 1990-2025) 110 Table: Population By Age Group % (Ghana 1990-2025) 111 Methodology 113 Industry Forecast Methodology 113 Sources 115 Risk/Reward Index Methodology 115 Table: IT Risk/Reward Index Indicators 116 Table: Weighting Of Components 117