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PharmaPoint: Migraine - Japan Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2023

Summary

The migraine market is saturated with generic drugs, and the remaining branded products already on the market are expected to lose exclusivity during the next few years, with the exception of Botox for chronic migraine, which is expected to maintain its leading position in terms of sales. However, reformulations of mature products as well as new classes of therapies are anticipated to launch during the forecast period and these will contribute to the market growth. By 2023, the migraine market will grow to $3.7 billion at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6%, with the US continuing to dominate the market as a result of higher drug prices and a large migraine population. Some of the new treatments are expected to target the key unmet needs but opportunities will remain for further treatment choices especially drugs that will offer an improved safety and side-effects profile.

The launch of drugs in the Japanese market is often delayed due to the requirement by Japanese regulatory agencies to perform clinical studies in Japanese patients; as a result, the market uptake of lasmiditan and MK-1602 will occur at the very end of the forecast period, when they are expected to steal shares from triptans as well as gaining additional patient share from the underserved population.

Scope

- Overview of Migraine including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.
- Detailed information on the key drugs in the Japan including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.
- Sales forecast for the top drugs in the Japan from 2012-2023.
- Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting the Japan Migraine market.

Reasons to buy

- Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return
- Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for Migraine
- Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential
- Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance
- Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2023 in the Japan

Table Of Contents

PharmaPoint: Migraine - Japan Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2023
1 Table of Contents

2 Introduction 11
2.1 Catalyst 11
2.2 Related Reports 12
2.3 Upcoming Related Reports 13
3 Disease Overview 14
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 16
3.1.1 Etiology 16
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 17
3.1.3 Prognosis 18
3.2 Symptoms 18
3.2.1 Premonitory Phase 18
3.2.2 Aura Phase 19
3.2.3 Headache Phase 20
3.2.4 Postdrome Phase 20
4 Disease Management 21
4.1 Treatment Overview 21
4.1.1 Acute Migraine Treatment 24
4.1.2 Preventive Migraine Treatment 25
4.2 Japan 26
4.2.1 Diagnosis 26
4.2.2 Clinical Practice 26
5 Competitive Assessment 27
5.1 Overview 27
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 28
5.3 Product Profiles- Major Brands 29
5.3.1 Triptans 29
5.3.2 Imitrex (sumatriptan) 31
5.3.3 Zomig (zolmitriptan) 33
5.3.4 Amerge (naratriptan) 35
5.3.5 Maxalt (rizatriptan) 36
5.3.6 Axert (almotriptan) 38
5.3.7 Frova (frovatriptan) 39
5.3.8 Relpax (eletriptan) 41
5.3.9 Ergot Alkaloids 42
5.3.10 Beta Blockers 47
5.3.11 Anti-Epileptics 50
5.3.12 Antidepressants 54
5.3.13 Calcium Channel Antagonists 56
6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 59
6.1 Overview 59
6.1.1 A Lack of Acute Therapies for Patients with or at Risk of Cardiovascular Disorders 60
6.1.2 Lack of Acute Therapies for Patients Unresponsive to Triptan Medication 60
6.1.3 Lack of Diagnostic Tools Causes Misdiagnosis 61
6.1.4 Physician Education 61
6.1.5 Effective and Well-Tolerated Prophylactic Therapies 62
6.2 Unmet Needs Gap Analysis 62
6.2.1 Acute Therapies for Patients with or at Risk of Cardiovascular Disorders and for Patients Unresponsive to Triptan Medication 63
6.2.2 Effective and Well-Tolerated (Migraine-Specific) Preventive Therapies 64
6.2.3 Physician Education 64
6.2.4 Diagnostic Tools 65
7 Pipeline Assessment 66
7.1 Overview 66
7.2 Promising drugs in clinical development 66
7.2.1 RHB-103 68
7.2.2 Lasmiditan 71
7.2.3 MK-1602 76
7.2.4 RT-001 80
7.2.5 NXN-188 82
8 Market Outlook 85
8.1 Japan 85
8.1.1 Forecast 85
8.1.2 Key Events 89
8.1.3 Driver and Barriers 89
9 Appendix 91
9.1 Bibliography 91
9.2 Abbreviations 99
9.3 Methodology 101
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 101
9.4.1 Diagnosed Migraine Patients 101
9.4.2 Percent Drug-treated Patients 102
9.4.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 102
9.4.4 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates 103
9.4.5 General Pricing Assumptions 104
9.4.6 Individual Drug Assumptions 104
9.4.7 Generic Erosion 109
9.4.8 Pricing of Pipeline agents 109
9.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 110
9.6 Survey of Prescribing Physicians 111
9.7 About the Authors 112
9.7.1 Author 112
9.7.2 Reviewer 112
9.7.3 Global Head of Healthcare 112
9.8 About GlobalData 113
9.9 Disclaimer 113

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Classification of Migraine Subtypes 15
Table 2: Diagnostic Criteria for Migraine with Aura 19
Table 3: Diagnostic Criteria for Migraine without Aura 20
Table 4: Treatment Guidelines for Migraine 22
Table 5: Most Prescribed Drugs for Migraine by Class in the Major Markets, 2013 23
Table 6: Product Profile - Triptans 30
Table 7: Triptans SWOT Analysis, 2013 31
Table 8: Product Profile - Ergot Alkaloids 44
Table 9: Ergot Alkaloids SWOT Analysis, 2013 47
Table 10: Product Profile - Beta Blockers 48
Table 11: Beta Blockers SWOT Analysis, 2013 49
Table 12: Product Profile - Anti-Epileptics 51
Table 13: Anti-Epileptics SWOT Analysis, 2013 53
Table 14: Product Profile - Antidepressants 55
Table 15: Antidepressants SWOT Analysis, 2013 56
Table 16: Product Profile-Calcium Channel Antagonists 57
Table 17: Calcium Channel Antagonists SWOT Analysis, 2013 58
Table 18: Overall Unmet Needs - Current Level of Attainment 59
Table 19: Clinical Unmet Needs - Gap Analysis, 2013 63
Table 20: Migraine - Promising Late-Stage Pipeline, 2013 67
Table 21: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Migraine, 2013 68
Table 22: Product Profile - RHB-103 69
Table 23: RHB-103 SWOT Analysis, 2013 71
Table 24: Product Profile - Lasmiditan 73
Table 25: Lasmiditan SWOT Analysis, 2013 76
Table 26: Product Profile - MK-1602 77
Table 27: MK-1602 SWOT Analysis, 2013 80
Table 28: Product Profile - RT-001 82
Table 29: RT-001 SWOT Analysis, 2013 82
Table 30: Product Profile - NXN-188 83
Table 31: NXN-188 SWOT Analysis, 2013 84
Table 32: Sales Forecasts ($m) for Migraine in Japan, 2012-2023 86
Table 33: Key Events Impacting Sales for Migraine in Japan, 2012-2023 89
Table 34: Japanese Migraine Market - Drivers and Barriers, 2012-2023 89
Table 35: Key Launch or Approval Dates 103
Table 36: Key Patent Expiries 103
Table 37: Physicians Surveyed, By Country 111

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Migraine Treatment Algorithm in the 7MM 23
Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in Migraine, 2012-2023 67
Figure 3: Sales for Migraine in Japan by Drug Class, 2012-2023 88

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