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Introduction

Decades of abrasive diplomacy and mutual suspicion about the Iranian government’s decision to engage in uranium enrichment have led to strong sanctions from the international community. Following the election of more conciliatory presidents in both the US and Iran, negotiations to temporarily lift economic sanctions in exchange for slowing in progress of uranium enrichment have been achieved.

Features and benefits

* Analysis of the current sanction regime imposed on Iran, its origins and consequences.
* What a potential amelioration of Iranian international relations could mean for the local and wider economy.
* Analysis of the short term impact of the negotiations, what could go wrong, and other issues with the Iranian economy

Highlights

Iran has faced economic sanctions since 2002 because of its desire to enrich uranium and intransigence in clarifying its purposes. The UN, US, and EU have since progressively stepped up their economic pressure. Consequently the Iranian economy has suffered, with high unemployment, inflation, and a collapse in oil revenues.
Following the breakthrough in negotiations, a respite has been achieved for the country, and parties both domestically and internationally are eyeing Iran’s potential. A large population of highly skilled workers, a nominally diversified economy, and large oil and gas reserves has caught the eye of many investors.
The deal has bought a reprieve for six months, but many factors must be addressed in order to make it sustainable. Both parties have elements seeking to deride the deal. There are other issues with Iranian economy; a wave of policy liberalization aimed at freeing up the market didn't quite work when governmental factions acquired many assets.

Your key questions answered

* Why has Iran been subject to international trade sanctions, and what impact has this had upon the economy?
* What does the deal in Geneva mean for the Iranian economy?
* What is wrong with the current deal and what could possibly undermine it?

Table Of Contents

Iran: Hope for the economy following sanctions breakthrough?
OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary
THE CURRENT IRANIAN SECTION REGIME
Background to Iran's sanctions
The nuclear sanctions: the enrichment program
Sanctions get tougher between 2005 and 2012
EU and US finance and oil sanctions have been most damaging
SWIFT blacklist and pressure on UAE
Oil and gas sector's embargo
Iran's current economic condition
Gross Domestic Product decline
The Rial's free-fall
Inflation rampant due to subsidy reform and inability to import
Unemployment in double digit figures
THE NUCLEAR DEAL'S POTENTIAL FOR IRAN
Nuclear breakthrough: modest sanction lifts
The consequences of unleashing Iran's hydrocarbon reserves
Implications for Oil and gas prices
A place for international oil firms in Iranian oilfields?
Only temporary reprieve: further deals necessary
New opportunities for shipping companies
The automotive industry: recovery and re-entry
The Iranian domestic automotive industry's problems
Renault and Peugeot hope to return to Iran
General effects and other industries looking to prosper
PROBLEMS WITH THE DEAL AND IRAN'S ECONOMY
Sanctions lift is temporary and moderate
Core issues still need to be resolved
Deal remains precarious due to hardened factions
Economic concerns: state presence in the market
IP could present an obstacle for pharmaceutical and technological firms
CONCLUSIONS
A promising start, but advancement will be difficult
APPENDIX
Sources
Further Reading
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