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EpiCast Report: Gout - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

  • April 2014
  • -
  • Global Data
  • -
  • 55 pages

EpiCast Report: Gout - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

Summary

Gout is a type of inflammatory arthritis. The disease is triggered by the crystallization of uric acid within the joints and is associated with hyperuricemia, a condition in which the body either overproduces or under excretes uric acid. Attacks of gout are episodic in nature and although months may pass before the next attack occurs, the pain experienced during an attack can be debilitating. Men are at a higher risk for developing gout and the risk also increases with age, with a mean age at diagnosis for gout in both men and women of 61 years.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast an increase in both the diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of gout in the 6MM, from 1,374,065 diagnosed incident cases in 2013 to 1,649,065 diagnosed incident cases in 2023, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 2.00%, and 13,750,047 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2013 to 17,625,944 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2023, at an AGR of 2.82%.

This forecast is supported by age- and sex-specific data obtained from country-specific estimates from peer reviewed journal articles, in which the study populations were representative of the general population in the respective markets. GlobalData epidemiologists used historical diagnosed incidence and diagnosed prevalence data which were available for Italy and the UK, along with linear regression methods to forecast the age- and sex-specific diagnosed incidence and diagnosed prevalence for Italy and the UK through 2023. The forecast provides the age- and sex-specific diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of gout in each of the 6MM, with clinically relevant segmentations, which facilitate an in depth understanding of the emerging temporal trends, and informs strategies to improve the management of the disease. Additionally, GlobalData epidemiologists used the same methodology across the 6MM, which allows for a meaningful comparison of the forecast diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of gout across these markets.

Scope

- The Gout EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical epidemiological trends for gout in the six major markets (6MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK). In addition, this report includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases and the diagnosed prevalent cases of gout segmented by sex and age (in five-year age groups beginning at 20 years and ending at =85 years). The diagnosed prevalent cases are then further segmented by the number of cases of gout flares and tophaceous gout.
- The gout epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 6MM.

Reasons to buy

- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global gout market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global gout market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the sex and age groups that present the best opportunities for gout therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table Of Contents

EpiCast Report: Gout - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023
1 Table of Contents

2 Introduction 7
2.1 Catalyst 7
2.2 Upcoming Reports 7
3 Epidemiology 8
3.1 Disease Background 8
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 8
3.3 Global Trends 10
3.3.1 US 12
3.3.2 5EU 12
3.4 Forecast Methodology 13
3.4.1 Sources Used 17
3.4.2 Sources Not Used 20
3.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 22
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Gout (2013-2023) 29
3.5.1 Diagnosed Incidence 29
3.5.2 Diagnosed Prevalence 35
3.6 Discussion 43
3.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 43
3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 44
3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 45
4 Appendix 46
4.1 Bibliography 46
4.2 About the Authors 50
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 50
4.2.2 Reviewers 50
4.2.3 Global Director of Epidemiology 52
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 52
4.3 About GlobalData 53
4.4 About EpiCast 53
4.5 Disclaimer 54

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Gout 9
Table 2: Summary of Reported Incidence and Prevalence of Gout in the 6MM* 11
Table 3: American College of Rheumatology Criteria for the Clinical Diagnosis of Gout 14
Table 4: Sources of Gout Incidence Data in 6MM 15
Table 5: Sources of Gout Prevalence Data in 6MM 16
Table 6: Sources of Gout Flare and Tophaceous Gout Data in 6MM 17
Table 7: 6MM, Sources Not Used in the Epidemiological Analysis of Gout 21
Table 8: 6MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gout, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N, 2013-2023 30
Table 9: 6MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gout, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2013 31
Table 10: 6MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gout, Ages ?20 Years, N (Row %), 2013 33
Table 11: 6MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Gout, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N, 2013-2023 36
Table 12: 6MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Gout, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2013 37
Table 13: 6MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Gout, Ages ?20 Years, N (Row %), 2013 39

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: 6MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gout, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N, 2013-2023 30
Figure 2: 6MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gout, Both Sexes, N, 2013 32
Figure 3: 6MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gout, Ages ?20 Years, N, 2013 33
Figure 4: 6MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of Gout (Cases per 100,000 Population), Ages ?20 Years, by Sex, 2013 35
Figure 5: 6MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Gout, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N, 2013-2023 36
Figure 6: 6MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Gout, Both Sexes, N, 2013 38
Figure 7: 6MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Gout, Ages ?20 Years, N, 2013 39
Figure 8: 6MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence (%) of Gout, Ages ?20 Years, by Sex, 2013 41
Figure 9: 6MM, Number of Gout Flares in the Diagnosed Prevalent Population of Gout, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N, 2013 and 2023 42
Figure 10: 6MM, Tophaceous Gout Cases in the Diagnosed Prevalent Population of Gout, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N, 2013 and 2023 43

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