Table of Contents
Key industry events that shaped the power generation and transmission and distribution (T&D) sector in 2013 form the basis for highlighting major trends in the Asia-Pacific power market for 2014. The moderate peak power demand, favorable coal prices, and the resurgent Southeast Asian economy are likely to drive investments in this market. Furthermore, power generation additions, increase in electricity tariffs, and smart-grid rollouts are expected to draw investments in the T&D market.
Global Power Industry Overview and Trends
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the shale gas boom is likely to continue to fuel the US economy at least till 2035, even after the country is expected to start ramping up exports.
The rise in natural gas production (including shale gas) in the US has lowered natural gas prices, which are expected to remain stable during the short and medium terms.
Combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants—with their low-risk technology, favorable capital costs and shorter construction times—have become the technology of choice for intermediate loads as well as, increasingly, base loads.
China’s 12th five-year plan, released in March 2011, envisages a major expansion of gas demand for the country, with consumption anticipated to reach x billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2015, double the 2010 usage level. China is trying to promote gas exploration, upstream development, and adoption through pricing reforms.
Asia is expected to remain the largest (x GW proposed/planned) market for coal-fired generation, primarily driven by China and India (xGW), followed by Indonesia (xGW) and Vietnam (xGW). Both China and India face obstacles in developing their domestic coal production fast enough to meet demand. Their growing import requirements propel the expansion and integration of global coal trade.
New safety regulations are expected to drive large expenditure for enhancement and retrofit of existing nuclear power plants. Russia and Asian markets show commitment to pursue their nuclear power programs.
Globally, the installed capacity of renewable energy is forecast to grow by x% during this decade, corresponding to average an annual growth rate of x%. Solar energy is expected to exhibit the highest growth till 2015, while emerging technologies are forecast to realize its potential in the next decade and beyond.
For the first time, in 2013, the combined markets of US, Japan, and China surpassed Europe for the largest demand of solar power. This is likely to continue during the short term.
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