Synopsis

The report outlines the key trends arising and insights in the mortgage markets in the US, UK, Ireland and Australia after the financial crisis:
• It provides a comparative analysis of the US, UK, Irish and Australian mortgage markets
• It provides analytical insights into the key emerging trends in the mortgage markets arising as a result of regulatory and economic developments in these countries
• It provides a competitive assessment of the mortgage products offered by the leading lending banks in the US, UK, Ireland and Australia, and their shares in the mortgage market

Summary

The subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 severely impacted numerous world economies. Reckless lending practices by banks and rising house prices led to an increasing number of foreclosures in mortgage markets around the world. While economies such as the US and UK have shown signs of improvement in the overall mortgage market, Ireland has recorded a negative trend in the mortgage market as its economy continues to struggle. Australia, on the other hand, remained resilient and was less impacted by the crisis, supported by strong banking and consumer protection regulations in the country.
The US mortgage market has shown signs of recovery following the financial crisis, supported by strong regulatory measures and an economic stimulus package by the Federal Reserve. GDP growth, increased consumer spending and falling unemployment have also contributed to the mortgage market’s recovery. In terms of outstanding mortgages value, the overall US mortgage market reached US$13.2 trillion in 2013, with annual growth recovering from -4.4% in 2009 to just -0.08% in 2013. Delinquencies and foreclosures in the mortgage market have improved since 2009: delinquencies improved from 4.6% in 2009 to 2.4% in 2013, while the number of foreclosures fell from 3.5 million to 1.7 million. The improved housing market and enforcement of stringent regulatory measures are expected to result in positive growth in the overall mortgage market over 2014–2018.
The UK mortgage market is showing signs of improvement, but downside risks emanating from the European sovereign debt crisis remain a key concern. The UK’s economy is showing signs of improvement, although growth remains sluggish. Nevertheless, positive economic growth and the implementation of strict regulations are helping to curb the effects of the global financial crisis. The value of outstanding mortgages in 2013 was at around US$1.98 trillion. There has been substantial growth in the number of mortgages lent over the years, following the European debt crisis. The introduction of new mortgages is made available for the Muslim population of the country. First time buyer and buy-to-let are the most preferred mortgages among borrowers in the UK market. Improvements in the job market among the young population increased demand for first-time-buyer mortgages.

Scope

• This report highlights the key trends arising in the mortgage markets after the strict enforcement of regulation following the subprime mortgage crisis in the US, UK, Ireland and Australia.
• The report gives an insight into preferred mortgage products offered by the banks in these countries, and the fluctuations in interest rates and economic factors affecting consumers' choices of mortgage products.
• The report also discusses the key drivers, issues and challenges faced by retail banks while offering mortgage products in these countries.

Reasons To Buy

• Gain insights into the mortgage markets of the US, UK, Ireland and Australia.
• Gain an understanding of the amendments brought about in the mortgage lending market following the financial crisis in these countries.
• Gain insights into competitive analysis of the four countries based on market size, strategies adopted to improve the mortgage products, and company profiles and product portfolios in these four countries.
• Gain insights about the key operational and regulatory trends in the mortgage market of these countries as a result of economic factors.

Key Highlights

• Mortgage markets have displayed differing trends since the financial crisis. While the US, UK and Ireland were badly affected by the subprime crisis, Australia maintained stability, supported by strong banking regulations.
• In terms of outstanding mortgages value, the overall US mortgage market reached US$13.2 trillion in 2013, with annual growth recovering from -4.4% in 2009 to just -0.08% in 2013. The US was at the forefront of the subprime crisis, and implemented a number of regulatory measures to ensure responsible lending practices. The implementation of strict regulations and the Federal Reserve’s economic stimulus package led to a positive trend in the US mortgage market.
• The value of outstanding mortgages in 2013 was at around US$1.98 trillion. There has been substantial growth in the number of mortgages lent over the years, following the European debt crisis.
• Ireland is still recovering from the European debt crisis, recording negative trends in its overall mortgage market. Ireland has the second-largest credit bubble after the US, with the value of outstanding mortgages higher than the country’s GDP.
• The Basel II framework in the Australian banking system protected it from the worst of the financial crisis in 2008. The timely implementation of policies and consumer-protection guidelines proved to be of great benefit for the market, and the number of mortgages undertaken grew as both unemployment and interest rates fell.

Table Of Contents

Table of Contents
1 Executive Summary
2 Mortgage Market Dynamics in the US, UK, Ireland and Australia
2.1 Comparative Assessment of the US, UK, Irish and Australian Mortgage Markets
2.2 Key Drivers
2.3 Issues and Challenges
3 Analysis of the US Mortgage Market
3.1 Overview
3.2 Emerging Trends
3.2.1 Total outstanding mortgage debt largely unchanged over the decade
3.2.2 Delinquency rates display a mixed trend
3.2.3 Affordability of mortgages through economic intervention and product innovation
3.2.4 Foreclosures falling since 2011
3.3 Regulatory Developments
3.4 Competitive Analysis
3.4.1 Competitive landscape and market shares
3.4.2 Mortgage product comparison
4 Analysis of the UK Mortgage Market
4.1 Overview
4.2 Emerging Trends
4.2.1 Outstanding mortgage lending is growing at a marginal rate following the financial crisis
4.2.2 Default rates fall following the financial crisis
4.2.3 First-time buyers remain the major contributors to the UK mortgage market
4.2.4 UK government Help to Buy scheme expands to Islamic mortgages
4.3 Regulatory Developments
4.4 Competitive Analysis
4.4.1 Competitive landscape and market shares
4.4.2 Mortgage product comparison
5 Analysis of the Irish Mortgage Market
5.1 Overview
5.2 Emerging Trends
5.2.1 Outstanding mortgages outran economic growth during the last decade
5.2.2 Number of first-time buyers in Ireland falling
5.3 Regulatory Developments
5.4 Competitive Analysis
5.4.1 Competitive landscape and market shares
5.4.2 Mortgage products comparison
6 Analysis of the Australian Mortgage Market
6.1 Overview
6.2 Emerging Trends
6.2.1 Outstanding mortgages are rising compared to GDP
6.2.2 Three-year fixed mortgage rates fall in comparison with the total number of mortgages
6.3 Regulatory Developments
6.4 Competitive Analysis
6.4.1 Competitive landscape and market shares
6.4.2 Mortgage product comparison
7 Appendix
7.1 Methodology
7.2 Contact Timetric
7.3 About Timetric
7.4 Timetric’s Services
7.5 Definitions
7.6 Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Comparative Assessment of the Mortgage Markets
Table 2: Economic Conditions in the US, UK, Ireland and Australia, 2009 and 2013
Table 3: US - Mortgage Market Environment
Table 4: US - Mortgage Products Offered, 2014
Table 5: US - Five-Year Adjustable-Rate Mortgages, February 2014
Table 6: US - 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages, February 2014
Table 7: US - 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages, February 2014
Table 8: UK - Mortgage Market Environment
Table 9: UK - Mortgage Products Offered by UK Banks, 2014
Table 10: UK - First-Time-Buyer Mortgages Fixed for Two Years, February 2014
Table 11: UK - Buy-to-Let Mortgages Fixed for Two Years, February 2014
Table 12: Ireland - Mortgage Market Environment
Table 13: Ireland - Mortgage Products Offered, 2014
Table 14: Ireland - First-Time-Buyer Mortgages, February 2014
Table 15: Ireland - Buy-to-Let Mortgages, February 2014
Table 16: Australia - Mortgage Market Environment
Table 17: Australia - Mortgage Products Offered, 2014
Table 18: Australia - Three-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages, February 2014
Table 19: Australia - Five-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages, February 2014
Table 20: Australia - Variable-Rate Mortgages, February 2014
Table 21: Key Definitions

List of Figures

Figure 1: Mortgage Markets - Size and Growth
Figure 2: US - Total Outstanding Mortgages (US$ Trillion), 2003-2013
Figure 3: US - Delinquency vs GDP Growth Rate, 2003-2013
Figure 4: US - Outstanding First-Time-Buyer Mortgages vs 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Interest Rates, 2003-2013
Figure 5: US - Foreclosures vs Delinquency Rates, 2003-2013
Figure 6: US - Mortgage Market Share (%), December 2012
Figure 7: UK - Outstanding Mortgages vs GDP, 2003-2013
Figure 8: UK - Default Rates vs Total Mortgages, 2003-2013
Figure 9: UK - Mortgage Market Shares (%), December 2012
Figure 10: Ireland - Outstanding Mortgages vs GDP (US$ Billion), 2003-2013
Figure 11: Ireland - Number of First-Time Buyers, 2003-2013
Figure 12: Ireland - Mortgage Market Shares (%), June 2013
Figure 13: Australia - Outstanding Mortgages vs GDP (US$ Billion), 2003-2013
Figure 14: Australia - Three-Year Fixed Rates against Average Home Mortgages, 2003-2013
Figure 15: Australia - Mortgage Market Shares (%), December 2013

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