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EpiCast Report: Dengue - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

Summary

Dengue fever is a febrile illness caused by a single-stranded flavirius most commonly transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Dengue fever is one of the most prevalent arthropod-borne diseases affecting humans. The severity of dengue fever ranges from asymptomatic cases, to classic dengue fever, and to DHF or DSS.

GlobalData epidemiologists sourced government-based publications for the forecast of reported laboratory-confirmed dengue fever cases, including official national dengue reports, weekly surveillance reports, and reportable disease databases.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that laboratory-confirmed dengue cases in the 5MM will increase from an annual average of 304,608 cases from 2009-2013 to 339,104 cases in 2023 with an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.13%. Brazil will have almost half the number of reported laboratory-confirmed dengue cases among the 5MM throughout the forecast period (207,000 cases in 2023). GlobalData epidemiologists believe that introductions of new or long-dormant dengue serotypes would be a significant driver in disease transmission in the 5MM during the next 10 years.

This report is based on laboratory-confirmed dengue cases reported by the national surveillance systems of the 5MM. Therefore, it should be used with the understanding that reported cases are a function of the dengue case burden in the country as well as the type and capacity of the dengue surveillance system.

This report provide a comprehensive analysis of dengue fever epidemiology in the 5MM, incorporating risk factors, disease burden, outbreak periodicity, serotype circulation pattern, regional variations in disease pattern, and age- and sex-specific distribution. The analysis is based on strong sources, including official national dengue reports, weekly surveillance reports, and reportable disease databases. GlobalData epidemiologists supplemented the national-level surveillance data with peer-reviewed regional studies. The analysis was also conducted using consistent methodology across the 5MM, thereby allowing meaningful comparison of the forecast numbers.

Scope

- The Dengue EpiCast Report provides an overview of the dengue fever risk factors and comorbidities, global and historical epidemiology trends, and circulating serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4) in five major markets (5MM) (Brazil, India, Mexico, Singapore, and Thailand). In addition, this report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the reported laboratory-confirmed incident cases of dengue fever (including classic dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), and dengue shock syndrome (DSS)) for the 5MM. The reported laboratory-confirmed incident cases are segmented by sex and age (<1 year, 1 year, 2-14 years, 15-44 years, 45-64 years, and =65 years).
- The dengue epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 5MM.

Reasons to buy

- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global dengue market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global dengue market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the sex and age groups that present the best opportunities for dengue pharmaceutical products in each of the markets covered.

Table Of Contents

EpiCast Report: Dengue - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023
1 Table of Contents

2 Introduction 6
2.1 Catalyst 6
2.2 Upcoming Reports 6
3 Epidemiology 7
3.1 Disease Background 7
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 7
3.3 Global Trends 10
3.3.1 Incidence and Geographic Distribution 10
3.3.2 Dengue Periodic and Seasonal Patterns 11
3.3.3 Dengue Serotypes 12
3.4 Forecast Methodology 14
3.4.1 Sources Used 15
3.4.2 Sources Not Used 18
3.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 19
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast of Dengue (2013-2023) 22
3.5.1 Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases 22
3.5.2 Sex-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases 23
3.5.3 Age-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases 25
3.5.4 Age-Standardized Incidence of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue 26
3.6 Discussion 27
3.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 27
3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 29
3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 29
4 Appendix 30
4.1 Bibliography 30
4.2 About the Authors 37
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 37
4.2.2 Reviewers 37
4.2.3 Global Director of Epidemiology 38
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 39
4.3 About GlobalData 40
4.4 About EpiCast 40
4.5 Disclaimer 41

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors for Dengue Fever and Severe Dengue Fever (Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever and Dengue Shock Syndrome) 9
Table 2: Periodicity and Seasonality of Dengue Fever in the 5MM, 2003-2013 12
Table 3: 5MM, Circulating Dengue Virus Serotypes and Predominant Serotype, 2003-2013 13
Table 4: 5MM, Sources of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Fever Data 14
Table 5: 5MM, Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, N (Col %), Men and Women, All Ages, Select Years 2009-2023 22
Table 6: 5MM, Sex-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, All Ages, Annual Average 2009-2013 24
Table 7: 5MM, Age-Specific Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, All Ages, Annual Average 2009-2013 25

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: 5MM, Incidence Rate (Cases per 100,000 Population) of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases (Including Classic Dengue Fever and DHF), Men and Women, All Ages, 2003-2013 10
Figure 2: 5MM, Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, Men and Women, All Ages, 2014-2023 23
Figure 3: 5MM, Sex-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, All Ages, Annual Average 2009-2013 24
Figure 4: 5MM, Age-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, Men and Women, Annual Average 2009-2013 26
Figure 5: 5MM, Age-Standardized Incidence of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, All Ages, Annual Average 2009-2013 27

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