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Mexico Mining Report 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 42 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain a positive outlook for Mexico's mining industry growth, predicated on a strongproject pipeline, low operating costs and vast mineral reserves. Nonetheless, elevated cartel violence willremain a key downside risk.

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

- Mexico's mining industry value will see solid growth, supported by low operating costs and a strongproject pipeline, over the next few years. We forecast the country's sector value to increase fromUSD15.7bn in 2016 to USD17.8bn by 2020, averaging 3.3% annual growth.

- Mexico will remain the leading global silver producer, with production growth accelerating over ourforecast period to 2020 on the back of a strong project pipeline. We expect the country's silver output toincrease from 178 million ounces (moz) in 2016 to 214moz by 2020, averaging 4.5% annual growth.

- Mexico's silver industry production growth will be export-driven, as key Asian markets increase silverconsumption. For instance, in 2015, Mexico's silver ores and concentrates exports to China nearlydoubled to 1.5moz compared to 791koz the previous year. Similarly, in 2015, the country exported511koz of silver ores and concentrates to South Korea, up from 412koz in 2014.

- Mexico's copper sector will continue increase output, due to competitive operating costs and a significantproject pipeline over the coming years. Namely, Southern Copper's USD3.5bn expansion at theBuenavista mine will ramp up output to 500 thousand tonnes (kt) by 2017. In light of this, we haverevised Mexico's copper output growth forecast up from 3.0 to 10.0% and 2.5% to 4.0% in 2016 and2017, respectively. We forecast the country's output to increase from 592 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2016 to644kt by 2020.

- The key downside risk to our upbeat mining production forecasts for Mexico will be elevated violence innorthern states, where a number of projects are located. For instance, Fresnillo's USD515mn San Juliansilver-gold project, expected to begin production in 2017, sits in Chihuahua. The state of Chihuahua, inwhich Ciudad Juárez is located, recorded a homicide rate of 46 per 100,000 people in 2014 - the secondhighest in the country, and well above the national average of 16 per 100,000 people, according to datafrom the Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática.

Table Of Contents

Mexico Mining Report 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Mexico Mining Industry Value Forecast (2012-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Copper: Output To Pick Up 9
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Mexico 2012-2020) 9
Table: Mexico - Key Copper Projects 10
Structural Trends 10
Buenavista To Drive Growth 10
Risks To Outlook 12
Silver: Solid Growth Ahead 13
Table: Silver Production Forecast (Mexico 2012-2020) 14
Table: Mexico - Key Silver Projects 14
Structural Trends 14
Strong Project Pipeline To Support Growth 14
Headwinds To Die Down 15
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 18
Industry Risk/Reward Index - Mexico - Q3 2016 18
Rewards 18
Industry Rewards 18
Country Rewards 18
Risks 18
Industry Risks 18
Country Risks 19
Americas: Risk/Reward Index 19
Key Takeaways 19
Latest Revisions 20
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index 21
Regulatory Development 22
Trade And Investment Risk Analysis 22
Commodities Forecast 26
Commodities Outlook 26
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 26
Competitive Landscape 27
Table: Mexico - Largest Listed Mining Companies - Financial Data, 2015 27
Company Profile 28
Industrias Peñoles - Q3 2016 28
Table: Industrias Peñoles - Key Financial Data 30
Company Profile - Grupo Mexico - Q3 2016 31
Table: Grupo Mexico - Key Financial Data 33
Regional Overview 34
Methodology 39
Industry Forecast Methodology 39
Sources 40
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 41
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 42

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