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South Africa Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 67 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The South African petrochemicals industry is set for stronger growth in 2016 as a result of low base effects,a modest upturn in local consumption and capacity growth in the C3 chain. However, the sector has beenthe worst affected area of an economy that is enduring sub-2% growth and falling competitiveness, weigheddown by poor consumption, strike action and disruption to electricity supply.In 2015, South Africa had ethylene capacity of just under 700,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) and propylenecapacity of 960,000tpa. Meanwhile, polymer capacities included a total of 570,000tpa of polyethylene (PE),60,000tpa of polyethylene terephthalate (PET), 680,000tpa of polypropylene (PP) and 200,000tpa ofpolyvinyl chloride. This gives South Africa a relatively small yet diverse petrochemicals base. However,capacities are unlikely to change over the medium term.In 2015, basic chemicals output fell 0.6% y-o-y, while plastic fell 1.9% and rubber declined 1.0%. Signs ofrecovery were seen in H215 and going into Q116 with uptrends in plastics and chemicals. In terms of endmarkets,the construction sector is enduring a poor performance, which is helping to depress demand forconstruction-related polymers. On the upside, the automotive industry is seeing a recovery and rising localcontent in cars manufactured in South Africa offers further opportunities for consumption group.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Political 10
Economic 11
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Latest Developments 14
Consumption 14
Table: South Africa's Chemicals and Petrochemicals Sector, 2012-2020 18
Macroeconomic Forecasts 19
Economic Analysis 19
Industry Risk/Reward Index 22
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 22
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index - Q3 2016 27
South Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 28
Market Overview 30
Industry Trends And Developments 33
Sasol 33
Refining 35
Upstream 37
Company Profile 38
Sasol 38
Table: Sasol - Financial Results, Financial Year Ending June 30 (ZARmn), 2010-2014 41
Regional Overview 42
Middle East And Africa Overview 42
Global Industry Overview 50
Demographic Forecast 57
Demographic Outlook 57
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 58
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 58
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 59
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 59
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 60
Glossary 62
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 62
Methodology 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 65
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 67

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