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Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 76 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Progress on the formation of a unity government offers upside risk to oil production in SouthSudan. However, we expect the pace of progress to remain slow, with no significant gains in output before2017. The longer-term outlook for both Sudan and South Sudan is heavily bearish, due to a thin projectspipeline, lack of exploration and poor prospects for investment. The downstream sector is also weak, andwe see limited room for growth given the high capital requirements, strained fiscal position of therespective governments and a lack of interest from foreign investors. Consumption growth is relativelystrong, but from a low base. Growth prospects have also narrowed over recent quarters, due to subsidyreform in Sudan and a dollar shortage in South Sudan.

Latest Updates And Key Trends

- Exploration in both Sudan and South Sudan will remain heavily constrained. An uncertain political andsecurity environment, combined with major capex claw backs across the industry, will see limitedinvestment in new exploration across our forecast period.

- Oil production in both countries is set for long-term decline. A range of factors are at play here, includingthe lack of major discoveries to be brought online, rapid depletion rates at producing fields, widespreaddamage to infrastructure, faltering investment and a lack of wider foreign participation.

- Refined fuels production will fail to keep pace with the strong rise in consumption, triggering a mountingdependency on refined fuels imports in South Sudan and falling exports from Sudan. Refineries in Sudanwill struggle to maintain competitiveness against their global peers, due to falling domestic crudeproduction, limited economies of scale and a lack of appetite in new downstream investments.

- Export revenues are at risk of sustained decline, both in line with falling domestic crude output and asharp drop in global oil prices. Increased competition in Sudan and South Sudan's key Asian exportmarkets also threatens further downward price pressures, over the longer term.

Table Of Contents

Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Sudan 2014-2020) 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (South Sudan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Major Discoveries - Sudan And South Sudan 12
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Sudan - Upstream Projects 14
Table: South Sudan - Upstream Projects 15
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Sudan 16
Table: Oil Production (Sudan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Sudan 2020-2025) 17
South Sudan 18
Table: Oil Production (South Sudan 2014-2019) 21
Table: Oil Production (South Sudan 2020-2025) 21
Refining 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Sudan 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Sudan 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Sudan 2020-2025) 24
South Sudan 25
Refined Fuels Consumption 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Sudan 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Sudan 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Sudan 2020-2025) 27
South Sudan 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Sudan 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Sudan 2020-2025) 29
Trade - Oil 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Sudan - Oil Trade 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Sudan 2014-2019) 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Sudan 2020-2025) 32
Sudan - Fuels Trade 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Sudan 2014-2019) 33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Sudan 2020-2025) 34
South Sudan - Oil Trade 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Sudan 2014-2019) 35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Sudan 2020-2025) 36
South Sudan - Fuels Trade 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Sudan 2014-2019) 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Sudan 2020-2025) 37
Industry Risk Reward Index 38
Africa - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 38
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 38
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 41
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 41
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 44
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 44
Sudan And South Sudan - Risk/Reward Index 46
Market Overview 47
Sudan And South Sudan Energy Market Overview 47
Regulatory Overview 47
Licensing Regime 48
Fiscal Regime 48
Table: South Sudan PSC Main Fiscal Terms 48
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 49
Oil Refineries 49
Table: Sudan Oil Refineries 49
Table: South Sudan Oil Refineries 49
Oil Storage Facilities 49
Table: Sudan and South Sudan Main Oil Storage Facilities 50
Oil Trade Facilities 50
Table: Sudan and South Sudan Main Oil Trade Facilities 50
Oil Pipelines 50
Table: Sudan and South Sudan Main Oil Pipelines 50
Competitive Landscape 51
Competitive Landscape Summary 51
Table: Key Players - Sudan Energy Sector 52
Table: Key Upstream Players 52
Table: Key Downstream Players 53
Company Profile 54
CNPC 54
Latest Updates 54
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Sudan and South Sudan 55
Table: Key Financial Data, CNYbn 55
ONGC Videsh 56
Latest Updates 56
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Sudan and South Sudan 57
Table: Key Financial Data, INRmn 57
Petronas 58
Latest Updates 58
Table: Main Upstream Assets In Sudan and South Sudan 59
Table: Key Financial Data, MYRbn 59
Regional Overview 60
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 60
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 68
Glossary 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms 69
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Source 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 75
Table: Weighting 76

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