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  5. > The Smartphone markets: worldwide trends, forecasts and strategies 2014–2018

The number of smartphone connections is set to grow by 136% in the next 5 years to reach 3.9 billion worldwide in 2018. This report presents our latest smartphone forecasts, derived from a demand- and supply-side model for both smartphone connections and sales across 65 countries.

This report provides:

- a 5-year forecast of the installed base and sales demand for smartphones
- a detailed 5-year forecast of smartphone connections by operating system (OS) for France, Germany, Spain, the UK and the USA
- an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and inhibitors for the adoption of smartphones, and the strategies that players are adopting to expand smartphone adoption
- a comparative SWOT analysis for the top-eight smartphone manufacturers in the world (by number of device sales), as well as Google and Microsoft
- key implications and recommendations for mobile operators and vendors.

We define smartphones as mobile handsets that have the characteristics of a PC, including advanced multimedia capabilities and the ability to install third-party software. Our definition excludes Symbian Series 40 devices.
This report draws on Analysys Mason's regional forecasts and interviews with regional operators and smartphone vendors.

Table Of Contents

The Smartphone markets: worldwide trends, forecasts and strategies 2014-2018
7.Executive summary
8.Executive summary: Improving customer loyalty via stronger device ecosystems will help vendors sustain their market share
9.Key implications
10.Key implications
11.Forecasts and analysis: worldwide
12.Smartphones' share of handset connections will not exceed 50% until 2018
13.Almost 40% of non-smartphone users in developed markets are not really interested in smartphones
14.18% of mobile respondents will not convert to smartphones unless their phone breaks
15.2014 will be a pivotal year for vendors as the high-end smartphone market reaches saturation in developed countries
16.OS worldwide market shares: Android will maintain its comfortable lead, with a 72% volume market share in 2018
17.Analysis: Apple and iOS
18.Analysis: Google and Android
19.Analysis: Windows Phone
20.Vendors' worldwide market shares: Samsung's market share of unit sales will decline from 32% in 2013 to 27% in 2018
21.Vendor analysis: HTC
22.Vendor analysis: Huawei
23.Vendor analysis: Lenovo
24.Vendor analysis: LG Electronics
25.Vendor analysis: Nokia
26.Vendor analysis: Samsung
27.Vendor analysis: Sony Mobile
28.Forecasts and analysis: regional
29.Worldwide view: Latin America's contribution to the smartphone market will increase the most during the forecast period
30.North America: Operators have been particularly successful at converting prepaid and other low-end customers to smartphones
31.Western Europe: Making smartphones more affordable via financing plans and refurbished handsets will help maximise smartphone penetration
32.Central and Eastern Europe: The region will have almost as many smartphone connections and sales as Western Europe by the end of 2018
33.Developed Asia-Pacific: 96% of handset sales will be smartphones in 2018
34.Emerging Asia-Pacific: 47% of connections will be smartphones by 2018, and the market will continue to grow steadily beyond the forecast period
35.Latin America: The region is set to overtake North America in yearly smartphone unit sales by the end of 2015
36.The Middle East and Africa: Strong demand for OTT communication apps is driving smartphone take-up
37.Sub-Saharan Africa: The average selling price for smartphones will remain high in comparison with income levels and ARPU
38.Forecasts and analysis: country-level
39.France: Android's market share will decline by 8 percentage points during the forecast period because of a high-end-focused market
40.Germany: Low ARPU and a relatively high share of prepaid connections will continue to drive low-end Android smartphone adoption
41.Spain: Android smartphones will account for three out of four smartphone connections in 2018
42.UK: Windows Phone will gain users from BlackBerry's user base
43.USA: This is the only market we tracked in which iOS's market share will continue to grow during the forecast period
44.Market definition
45.Definition of geographical regions [1]
46.Definition of geographical regions [2]
47.About the author and Analysys Mason
48.About the author
49.About Analysys Mason
50.Research from Analysys Mason
51.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: Smartphone unit sales by device manufacturer, worldwide,
2011-2018
Figure 3: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, worldwide, 2011-2018
Figure 4: Propensity to buy a smartphone, 2011 and 2012
Figure 5: Primary reasons for getting a new handset, by type of device currently owned
Figure 6: Mobile handset unit sales by type, and smartphones' share of unit sales, worldwide, 2011-2018
Figure 7: Smartphone unit sales by operating system, worldwide, 2011-2018
Figure 8: Smartphone unit sales by device manufacturer, worldwide,
2011-2018
Figure 9: Smartphone connections by region, 2011-2018
Figure 10: Smartphone unit sales by region, 2011-2018
Figure 11: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, North America, 2011-2018
Figure 12: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, North America, 2011-2018
Figure 13: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, Western Europe, 2011-2018
Figure 14: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, Western Europe, 2011-2018
Figure 15: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2018
Figure 16: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2018
Figure 17: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2018
Figure 18: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2018
Figure 19: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2018
Figure 20: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2018
Figure 21: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, Latin America, 2011-2018
Figure 22: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, Latin America, 2011-2018
Figure 23: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, Middle-East and North Africa, 2011-2018
Figure 24: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, Middle-East and North Africa, 2011-2018
Figure 25: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2018
Figure 26: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2018
Figure 27: Smartphone connections by operating system, and smartphones' share of total mobile handset connections, France, 2011-2018
Figure 28: Smartphone connections by operating system, and smartphones' share of total mobile handset connections, Germany, 2011-2018
Figure 29: Smartphone connections by operating system, and smartphones' share of total mobile handset connections, Spain, 2011-2018
Figure 30: Smartphone connections by operating system, and smartphones' share of total mobile handset connections, UK, 2011-2018
Figure 31: Smartphone connections by operating system, and smartphones' share of total mobile handset connections, USA, 2011-2018
Figure 32: Regional breakdown used in this report
Figure 33: Regional breakdown used in this report

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