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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The report titled “Poland Shale Gas Industry Outlook to 2025 - Government Strategy and Companies Proclivity to Drive Shale Gas Exploration” presents a comprehensive analysis of the industry covering market size by number of shale gas concessions awarded and by number of shale gas wells drilled in the country. The report also entails information on technological prospects, key policy drivers, potential challenges and trends & developments in the industry. The report illustrates a competitive scenario of major players in the industry along with the market share of major companies on the basis of concessions awarded and shale gas wells drilled.

The primary energy consumed in Poland comprises predominantly of coal, oil, natural gas and renewable sources of energy. The shale gas industry in Poland has been driven by potentially large shale gas reserves, government support, social acceptance and developing interest of E&P companies with positive shale gas test results. The industry has registered a CAGR of 67.1% during 2010-2013 by drilling ~ shale gas wells till the year 2013. These wells were solely drilled by OPPPW (The Polish Exploration and Production Industry Organization) member companies.

State owned PGNiG SA is the leading player with the total of ~ concessions and ~ drilled shale gas wells by the year 2013. It is followed by San Leon Energy with over ~ drilled shale gas wells in the country. PKN ORLEN SA stood at the third position along with 3Legs Resources, BNK Petroleum and Chevron as other leading E&P players operating in Poland Shale Gas Industry.

Poland shale gas industry is estimated to witness ~ drilled shale gas wells by the year 2018 which will increase from ~ drilled shale gas wells in 2013. The future of Poland shale gas industry is expected to be favorable on account of evolving favorable regulatory legislations, increasing inclination of E&P companies due to shale gas flows during test drilling, moderating environmental legislations on hydraulic fracturing techniques and social acceptance. However, the year 2017 is anticipated to be the commercial production year for Poland Shale Gas Industry. The industry is anticipated to witness either moderate, increased foreign investments or accelerated growth scenario. The overall Poland shale gas industry is expected to grow significantly at a CAGR of 26.3% in the forecasted period of 2014-2018.

KEY TOPICS COVERED IN THE REPORT


- Poland Primary Energy Consumption with detailed coverage of Natural Gas Industry Supply & Consumption Prospects
- Shale gas reserves in Poland with potential impact on energy security and economy
- The market size of Poland shale gas industry in terms of number of concessions awarded and number of shale gas wells drilled in Poland
- Technological Prospects, Key Policy Drivers and Potential Challenges existing in Poland shale gas industry
- Trends and developments with evolving favorable regulations and positive shale gas test flow results in industry
- Market share of major E&P players by number of concessions awarded & number of shale gas wells drilled in Poland
- Competitive landscape and company profiles with the pictorial representation of the awarded concessions and detailed description of each of the shale gas wells drilled by the major E&P companies and Service providers operating in Poland Shale Gas Industry (PGNiG SA, San Leon Energy, PKN ORLEN SA, 3Legs Resources , BNK Petroleum, Halliburton and others)
- Future Outlook and Projections under Moderate growth scenario, Increase in foreign investments and Accelerated growth scenario, with their comparative analysis
- Macro economic factors (both Quantitative and Qualitative) of the Poland Shale Gas Industry

Table Of Contents

Poland Shale Gas Industry Outlook to 2025 - Government Strategy and Companies Proclivity to Drive Shale Gas Exploration
TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Poland Primary Energy Industry Introduction
2. Primary Energy Consumption Dynamics, 2007-2012
3. Poland Natural Gas Industry Introduction
4. Poland Natural Gas Industry Supply and Consumption Prospects, 2007-2012
5. Poland Shale Gas Industry Introduction
5.1. Shale Gas Reserves in Poland
5.2. Impact on Energy Security
5.3. Impact on the Economy
6. Poland Shale Gas Market Size, 2010-2013
6.1. By Number of Concessions Awarded, 2010-2013
6.2. By Number of Shale Gas Wells Drilled, 2010-2013
7. Technological Prospects
Prospecting and Exploration Aspects of Shale Gas
Road Map to Successful Shale Gas Exploration
Myths and Solutions to Exploration of Shale Gas
Production and Cost Estimates of Different EandP Activities over the years, 2010-2014
8. Key Policy Drivers in Poland Shale Gas Industry
Polish Legal Framework
Existing Regulations
Shale Gas Concessions in Poland
Tax Policy
Environment Policy
9. Potential Challenges in Poland Shale Gas Industry
9.1. Geo- political Factors
Impact of European Union Guidelines and Aid of European Countries For Shale Gas Exploration in Poland
Gas Pricing Scenario
Difference between Poland and the US shale gas Scenario
9.2. Geological factors
9.3. Indigenous Factors
Uncertain Commercial Recovery
Insufficient Infrastructure
Inadequate Administrative Regulations
9.4. Environmental Factors
10. Trends and Developments in the Poland Shale Gas Industry
11. Market Share of Major Players in Poland Shale Gas Market
11.1. By Number of Concessions Awarded, Company Wise, 2007-2013
11.2. By Number of Shale Gas well Drilled by each Company, 2010-2013
12. Polish Exploration and Production (EandP) Industry Organization (OPPPW) OandG companies investing in shale gas EandP
12.1. International
12.1.1. BNK Petroleum Inc.
12.1.1.1. Company Overview
12.1.1.2. Business Strategies
BNK across Poland
Focus on Providing Benefits to People and Economy in Poland
12.1.2. San Leon Energy PLC
12.1.2.1. Company Overview
Timeline of San leon energy Activities in Poland, 2010-2013
12.1.2.2. Business Strategies
Shale Gas Acreage in Poland
12.1.3. Chevron
12.1.3.1. Company Overview
Shale Gas prospects In Poland
12.1.3.2. Business Strategies
Focus on Continued Shale Gas Exploration in Poland
12.1.4. 3Leg Resources
12.1.4.1. Company Overview
12.1.4.2. Business Strategies
12.1.5. Conoco Phillips
12.2. Poland National Oil and Gas Companies
12.2.1. PKN Orlen SA
12.2.1.1. Company Overview
12.2.1.2. Business Strategies
Huge Investments in Developing Poland Shale Gas Reserves
Initiating Blue Gas - Polish Shale Gas Programme
12.2.2. Polish Petroleum and Gas Mining
12.2.2.1. Company Overview
12.2.2.2. Business Strategies
Assistance to EandP Companies to Explore Shale Gas in Poland
Focus on Continued Shale Gas Exploration Independently and with Other Companies
12.3. Service Providers to Oil and Gas Companies
12.3.1. Halliburton
12.3.1.1. Company Overview
12.3.1.2. Business Strategies
Enhancing Operational Capabilities
Assistance to Different Shale Gas Exploring Companies in Poland
12.4. Other Players in Poland Shale Gas Industry
12.4.1. Other Upcoming EandP Players in Poland
Total
Hutton Energy
12.4.2. Other EandP Players in Poland
13. Poland Shale Gas Industry Future Outlook and Projections, 2014-2025
13.1. Comparative Analysis of three scenarios- Moderate, FDI and Advanced Investment
13.1.1. Moderate Growth Scenario, 2012-2025
13.1.2. Increase in Foreign Investments, 2012-2025
13.1.3. Accelerated Growth Scenario, 2012-2025
13.2. Cause and Effect Relationship in the Poland Shale Gas Industry
14. Macroeconomic and Industry Factors
14.1. Quantitative Factors
14.1.1. Population Density in Poland, 2007-2018
14.1.2. Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), 2007-2018
14.1.3. Unemployment Rate, 2007-2018
14.2. Qualitative Factors
14.2.1. Shale Gas Reserves in Poland, 2011 and 2013
14.2.2. Water Access
14.2.3. Social Acceptance in Poland
15. Appendix
15.1. Market Definitions
15.2. Abbreviations
15.3. Research Methodology
Data Collection Methods
Approach
Variables (Dependent and Independent)
Multi Factor Based Sensitivity Model
Final Conclusion
15.4. Disclaimer

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Pictorial Representation of Topology of Natural Gas Reservoirs with their Permeabilities in mD
Figure 2: Pictorial Representation of Shale Gas Basins in Poland
Figure 3: Flow Chart Representing Different Stages during Prospecting and Exploration of Shale Gas
Figure 4: Important Factors Determining Successful Shale Gas Exploration
Figure 5: Pictorial Representation of Chemical Composition of Fracking Fluid
Figure 6: Global Corporate Structure of BNK Petroleum Inc.
Figure 7: Pictorial Representation of BNK Polska Shale Gas Concessions Location in Poland
Figure 8: Location of Different Shale Gas Concessions in Poland
Figure 9: Pictorial Representation of Shale Gas Well Drilled by 3Legs Resources Group in partnership with Conoco Phillips
Figure 10: Pictorial Representation of Conoco Phillips Shale Gas Acreages in Poland
Figure 11: Pictorial Representation of Location of the 15 Concessions Owned by PGNiG SA
Figure 12: Poland Shale Gas Industry Future Projections on the Basis of the Number of New Shale Gas Wells Drilled, 2014-2018
Figure 13: Population Density in Number of People per Square Kilometers (Km2) in Poland, 2007-2018
Figure 14: FDI in Poland in USD Million, 2007-2018
Figure 15: Unemployment Rate in Percentage (%) in Poland, 2007-2018
Figure 16: Polish Population Acceptance for Shale Gas Exploration and Extraction, 2011
Figure 17: Polish Population Acceptance for Shale Gas Exploration and Extraction Near the place of their Residence, 2011

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Top 10 Coal producers in the World with their Production in Metric Tonnes (Mt) and Contribution in Percentage (%), 2012
Table 2: Different Types of Coal Production in Poland with the Amount Produced (in MT) and Contribution in Percentages (%), 2012
Table 3: Crude Oil Domestic Supply Sources in Poland, 2011
Table 4: Domestic Crude oil Consumption in Poland, 2011
Table 5: Retail Outlets in Poland, 2012
Table 6: Renewable Sources of Energy Consumption in million tonnes of oil equivalent in Poland, 2007-2012
Table 7: Primary Energy Consumption in million tonnes of oil equivalent in Poland, 2007-2012
Table 8: By Primary Energy Consumption in Poland in Percentage (%), 2007-2012
Table 9: List of European countries importing Natural Gas to Poland and the Entry (Interconnection) Points, 2012
Table 10: Poland Import Relationships in 2011
Table 11: Natural Gas Imports from the Top 3 Countries in Poland, 2012
Table 12: Natural Gas Supply in Billion Cubic Feet (Bcf) in Poland, 2007-2012
Table 13: Natural Gas Consumption by Various Sectors in Tera Joules (TJ) in Poland, 2007-2011
Table 14: By Natural Gas Consumption by various sectors in Percentages (%) in Poland, 2007-2011
Table 15: Shale Gas Reserves in Europe in Trillion Cubic Feet (Tcf), April 2011
Table 16: Location of Shale Gas Reserves with Estimates of Risked Gas-in Place (In Bcm and Tcf) and Technically Recoverable Shale Gas Reserves (In Bcm and Tcf) in Poland, April 2011
Table 17: Cost Incurred during Different Seismic Surveys as per the Distances in USD
Table 18: Shale Gas Wells Drilled in Poland, 2010-2013
Table 19: The Relationship between the Total Organic Carbon (TOC) in Weight (%) and the Resource Potential
Table 20: Simulation Treatments Performed in the Unconventional Shale Gas Exploratory Wells by the OPPPW members
Table 21: Estimated Shale Gas Production Structure from a Vertical Well for the First 10 Years after Commercial Shale Well Development in Percentages (%)
Table 22: Average Costs of Single Different Types of Shale Gas Wells, 2013
Table 23: Cost Estimates for Different Types of Exploration Work with the Respective Number of Works, Size of Work, Cost per Work and the Value of the Work, 2012-2014
Table 24: Description of Different Legislations Persisting in Poland with their Link to the Shale Gas EandP Activities and the Relevant Concerns/Issues Related to the Shale Gas
Table 25: Procedure/Permits/Clearances Requite to Proceed Shale Gas Exploration with Minimum, Maximum and Average Time Taken in Months in Poland
Table 26: Difference in the Reservoir Properties, Indigenous Factors, Environmental Regulations and Bureaucratic Discrepancies of Poland and the US Shale Gas Scenario
Table 27: Permits Required, Time Required for Administrative Procedures and Validation for the OandG Companies in Poland
Table 28: Difference in Area of Shale Gas Reserves and Number of Wells Drilled During the First Four Years in Pennsylvania and Poland
Table 29: Threshold values for Different Pollutants during Drilling of the Shale Gas Well in Poland
Table 30: Details of the New Tax/ Fee Structure for the Shale Gas Exploration Activity in Poland, 2013
Table 31: Relinquished Shale Gas Wells by Different Operating Companies with Name and Details of the Relinquished Well, October 2012
Table 32: By Number of concessions awarded as a Group and as Dependent to Different Companies (The Capital Group) in Poland; 2007- 2013
Table 33: By Number of Wells Drilled by each Company under OPPPW, 2010-2013
Table 34: BNK Polska Shale Gas Key Performance Indicators, 2013
Table 35: San Leon Energy Assets in Poland in Different Basins with Area Coverage (in Net Acres, Net km2) and by Number of Licenses Awarded
Table 36: Seven Concessions in the Baltic Basin with Gross, Net Coverage Acreage/ Area and Working Interest in Percentages (%), in Poland, 2013
Table 37: Timeline of San Leon Company Energy Activities in Poland, 2010- 2013
Table 38: Effect on San Leon Energy Business Pre-Aurelian and Post-Aurelian Acquisition, 2012
Table 39: Operating Company with San Leon for Drilling of Shale Gas Well with Name, Drilling Commencement and Completion of the Shale Gas Well, 2013
Table 40: San Leon and its Operating Company Test-flow Production Details with Operating Well Location, 2013
Table 41: Chevron Shale Gas Prospects in Poland through Different Concessions with Respective Areas in Acres and Square Kms, 2013
Table 42: Timeline of 3Leg Resources Activity of Shale Gas Exploration in Poland, 2009-2014
Table 43: Different Types of Five Shale Gas Wells with their Development and Production Details over the Years, 2011-2013
Table 44: Conoco Phillips Concession Names, Acreage and Number of Shale Gas Wells Drilled in each Concession, 2013
Table 45: Facts about Shale Gas Exploration Prospects of PKN Orlen SA, 2014
Table 46: PGNiG SA Exploration and Production Activity in Poland, 2012
Table 47: Name and Acreage/Area Covered by the 15 Concessions Owned by PGNiG SA
Table 48: Shale Gas Well Drilled with the Year of Commencement and Completion of Drilling by PGNiG, 2009-2013
Table 49: Name of the Shale Gas Concession with Acreage/Area in km2 acquired by Hutton Energy, 2013
Table 50: Others Players Name of the Concessions, Acreage and Number of Wells Drilled; 2010-2013
Table 51: Volume of Gas Production and Annual Average Capital Expenditure under three Different Scenarios, 2012-2025
Table 52: Moderate Growth Scenario for Exploration and Economic Prospects of Shale Gas in Comparison to the Baseline Scenario, 2012-2025
Table 53: Increased Foreign Investment Scenario for Exploration and Economic Prospects of Shale Gas in Comparison to the Baseline Scenario, 2012-2025
Table 54: Accelerated Growth Scenario for Exploration and Economic Prospects of Shale Gas in Comparison to the Baseline Scenario, 2012-2025
Table 55: Number of Boreholes (Exploration Wells) Transformed into Producing Wells in three different Assumed Scenarios, 2015-2034
Table 56: Number of New Wells expected to be drilled in Three Different Assumed Scenarios, 2015-2034
Table 57: Cause and Effect Relationship Analysis between Industry Factors and Expected Poland Shale Gas Market Prospects
Table 58: FDI Inflow to 5 European Countries in USD Billion, 2007-2011
Table 59: IMD Competiveness Index and Global Competiveness Index (WEF) Ranking of Poland, Russia and Ukraine, 2013
Table 60: Water and Other Material Requirements for a Vertical and a Horizontal Well during Shale Rock Drilling and Fracturing
Table 61: Correlation Matrix of Poland Shale Gas Industry
Table 62: Regression Coefficients Output of Poland Shale Gas Industry

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