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Australia - National Broadband Network - Analyses early 2014

  • January 2014
  • -
  • Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd
  • -
  • 33 pages

After the September 2013 election in Australia, and with a new government in charge, a number of reviews were announced that will shape the future direction of the NBN. For a start, the Minister asked NBN Co to carry out its own review first, based on the original specifications of the NBN it being a majority FttP rollout.
This indicates that at a strategic level the NBN will most likely continue fairly smoothly. There will most certainly be changes made to the rollout but these could quite possibly be implemented by NBN Co itself, now that it has largely been relieved of the political pressure under which it had to operate during the period of severe attacks by the then Opposition, which started off with a policy to kill the NBN. At this stage at least the NBN now has bipartisan support.

Also, because of the likely continuation of the NBN many of the issues discussed below remain unchanged, and so will require the attention of the government, and/or will need to be taken into account in future policy developments. BuddeComm has already indicated support for certain changes to the NBN in relation to greenfield developments and multi-dwelling units (MDUs) and these issues will now receive significantly more attention than they have had in the past. Again, the comments and analyses made on these issues remain relevant under the new government.
The rollout has seen delays, but at this stage there are no indications that this will affect the longer-term outlook for completion of the project. The review will obviously shed more light on this, but so far the issues seem to be more one-off and/or resolvable for instance, by being more flexible in the use of technology, for example in MDUs.

A serious omission remains that there is no policy or information that takes into account the importance of the NBN for the digital economy, the opportunity to use it to increase digital productivity, and where this infrastructure fits in relation to e-business, e-health and e-education.
There is still a misalignment between the social and economic benefits of the NBN and NBN Co's business plan. The new government wants to prioritise the underserved areas and is looking at other technologies to create some early wins. The question, however, is how much can be changed at this late stage and also whether it will really lower costs and speed up the rollout.

Australia is highly reliant on its income from natural resources and, like other resource-rich countries, it needs to diversify its economy. Interestingly, it is these resource-rich countries that are leading the rollout of FttP around the world. The main reason for those governments becoming involved in digital infrastructure is to increase their country's competitiveness and productivity in areas other than resources.

Companies covered in this report include:

NBN Co; Telekom Deutschland; Belgacom; Telekom Austria; Fastweb; Swisscom; Strata Community Australia (SCA); Telstra; Optus; AusBBS; iiNet; Internode; TPG; and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Table Of Contents

Australia - National Broadband Network - Analyses early 2014
1. Synopsis
2. Will the NBN be unravelled?
2.1 The delicate nature of a wholesale-only model
2.2 Structural separation allows for wholesale-only model
2.3 No demand for fibre-based services?
2.4 National digital productivity
3. Analysis of NBN 2.0
3.1 Two competing NBN offerings
3.2 The multi-technology NBN
3.3 Design and rollout problems
3.4 Contracts, negotiations and regulations
3.5 The execution
3.6 Current FttH plan requires simplification
3.7 So on to the next review in 2016?
3.8 Still missing a national vision
4. NBN Co given the opportunity to save the current NBN (Analysis)
5. Telstra's cashflow may suffer from NBN rollout delays
6. What PRISM, credit card hacking and Chromecast have to do with FttH
7. Retirement of NBN Co's first CEO
8. NBN top priority for the new Government
9. Departure of Minister for Broadband Stephen Conroy
10. The pros and cons of vectoring
11. Will LTE steal the broadband revolution?
12. Multi Dwelling Unit broadband
13. Major credibility issues for NBN Co
14. Is the NBN Co business model flawed?
15. NBN telecoms or digital infrastructure a SAU question
16. Pilbara a lost NBN opportunity
17. Surge in high speed broadband demand
18. NBN leadership or NBN procrastination
19. The Dutch Disease, broadband and the mining boom
20. Comparisons with broadband plans from ATandT and BT (separate report)
21. NBN could slash telecoms maintenance costs
22. Broadband demand-side management
23. The NBN and the opportunity for virtual' players
24. Will infrastructure constrain the digital entertainment market?
25. Will the half-built HFC disaster be repeated?
26. Four million households within reach of the NBN by 2015
27. Digital infrastructure essential to manage the transition to the e-world
28. Related reports

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