1. Market Research
  2. > Telecom Market Trends
  3. > The Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020

The Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Analysys Mason
  • -
  • 55 pages

Global telecoms service revenue will increase to USD1668 billion in 2020, spurred by 4G mobile services and NGA fixed broadband development. This report provides our regional and global telecoms forecasts to 2020, and an analysis of the trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets.

Table Of Contents

The Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015-2020

Contents


andnbsp;


8.Executive summary


9.Worldwide telecoms service revenue will increase to USD1668 billion, driven by 4G mobile services and next-generation fixed broadband


10.Mobile handset data will continue to boost revenue, driven by the increasing availability of 4G networks


11.Developing regions will have highest revenue growth, but NA will continue to be largest retail revenue contributor worldwide by 2020


12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets


13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators


14.Global forecasts and cross-regional comparison


15.Geographical coverage: 4G penetration will exceed 70% and household broadband penetration will surpass 85% in DVAP, NA and WE by 2020


16.Market context: Service take-up is driven by high GDP per capita in NA, WE and DVAP, and by affordability and accessibility in emerging regions


17.Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data and fixed broadband services will account for 44% of total service revenue in 2020


18.Mobile penetration: EMAP, DVAP and SSA will drive mobile SIM penetration worldwide to 108% by 2020, up from 92% in 2014


19.Mobile connections: 4G's share of connections will exceed 3G's share by 2020, driven by extensive network roll-out in developed regions


20.Smartphones and LTE: LTE's share of connections will be the highest in NA (92%) and DVAP (84%), and SSA will lag behind significantly (5%)


21.Mobile ARPU: Intense competition in mature regions, OTT services and converged bundle services will have a downward pressure on ARPU


22.Fixed services: FTTH/B connections will increase to 425 million, accounting for 44% of total fixed broadband connections in 2020


23.Fixed broadband: Household penetration will increase from 39% to 48% because of GDP per capita growth and network roll-out


24.Key drivers at a glance for each region


25.Individual regional forecasts


26.CEE: Telecoms revenue will decline in the forecast period due to competitive pressure on mobile and fixed voice revenue


27.CEE-mobile: Mobile revenue will drop to USD 2.4 million as handset data revenue will not fully offset voice and SMS losses


28.CEE- fixed: Broadband and IPTV revenue will grow at a CAGR of 1.9% as a result of increasing service take-up


29.DVAP: Total retail revenue will grow at a 1% CAGR, driven by mobile handset data usage and the wide availability of fibre


30.DVAP-mobile: Increasing smartphone penetration and high 4G availability will drive handset data ARPU up to USD23 in 2020


31.DVAP- fixed: The increase of broadband, IPTV and business network services revenue will offset fixed voice revenue losses


32.EMAP: Service revenue will increase at a CAGR of 3.1% by 2020 driven by mobile handset data and broadband take-up


andnbsp;


33.EMAP-mobile: Increasing 3G and 4G penetration contributes to mobile handset data revenue growth at a CAGR of 11.8%


34.EMAP- fixed: Fixed broadband and IPTV revenue growth at a CAGR of 7% will be driven by increasing service take-up


35.LATAM: Mobile handset data and fixed broadband services will stimulate steady revenue growth to USD140 billion by 2020


36.LATAM-mobile: 4G service take-up will accelerate and boost smartphone penetration and handset revenue growth


37.LATAM- fixed: Fixed broadband penetration will continue to grow, driven by an increase in cable and DSL connections


38.MENA: Total retail revenue will grow at a stable pace to USD85andnbsp;billion, of which mobile services will account for 69%


39.MENA-mobile: Mobile handset data revenue will grow by USD5.6 billion between 2014 and 2020, a CAGR of 8.7%


40.MENA- fixed: Broadband and IPTV revenue will grow at a 4.9% CAGR to USD11.3 billion, driven by roll-out plans in GCC countries


41.NA: Total telecoms service revenue will decline slowly at a


CAGR of -0.2%, after a USD437 billion peak in 2015-2016


42.NA-mobile: 4G technology will dominate mobile market with 92% of 4G SIMs and will drive up handset data revenue


43.NA- fixed: Fibre broadband penetration will grow because the services will outdo cable in terms of quality and speedandnbsp;


andnbsp;


44.SSA: Total service revenue will reach USD60 billion in 2020, driven by growth opportunities in mobile handset data


45.SSA-mobile: Revenue and penetration growth will be driven by demand for voice and Internet services


46.SSA-mobile: Revenue and penetration growth will be driven by demand for voice and Internet services


47.WE: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline slowly because of market maturity, price competition and OTT services


48.WE-mobile: ARPU will decline, offset in part by mobile data service revenue and consolidations


49.WE- fixed: Pressure on the quality of service will drive the market competition in fixed broadband


50.About the authors and Analysys Mason


51.About the authors


52.About Analysys Mason


andnbsp;

andnbsp;


List of figures


Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), worldwide, 2010-2020


Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2014-2020


Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide


Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions, worldwide


Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by region, worldwide, 2020


Figure 6: Metrics for the eight regions modelled individually, 2014


Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, worldwide, 2010-2020


Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, worldwide, 2014-2020


Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, worldwide, 2014-2020


Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2010-2020


Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, worldwide, 2010-2020


Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2014 and 2020


Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by region and worldwide, 2010-2020


Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, worldwide, 2010-2020


Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, worldwide, 2010-2020


Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by region, worldwide, 2015-2020


Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), CEE, 2010-2020


Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, CEE, 2014-2020


Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, CEE, 2014-2020


Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, CEE, 2010-2020


Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, CEE, 2010-2020


Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, CEE


Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, CEE, 2010-2020


Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, CEE, 2010-2020


Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, CEE


Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), DVAP, 2010-2020


Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, DVAP, 2014-2020


Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, DVAP, 2014-2020


Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, DVAP, 2010-2020


Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, DVAP, 2010-2020


Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, DVAP


Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, DVAP, 2010-2020


Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, DVAP, 2010-2020


Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, DVAP


Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), EMAP, 2010-2020


Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, EMAP, 2014-2020


Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, EMAP, 2014-2020


Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, EMAP, 2010-2020


Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, EMAP, 2010-2020


Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, EMAP


Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, EMAP, 2010-2020


Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, EMAP, 2010-2020


Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, EMAP


Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), LATAM, 2010-2020


Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, LATAM, 2014-2020


Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, LATAM, 2014-2020


Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, LATAM, 2010-2020


Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, LATAM, 2010-20201


Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, LATAM


Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, LATAM, 2010-2020


Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, LATAM, 2010-2020


Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, LATAM


Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), MENA, 2010-2020


Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, MENA, 2014-2020


Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, MENA, 2014-2020


Figure 56: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, MENA, 2010-2020


Figure 57: Mobile ARPU by type, MENA, 2010-2020


Figure 58: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, MENA


Figure 59: Fixed penetration rates by service type, MENA, 2010-2020


Figure 60: Fixed ASPU by service type, MENA, 2010-2020


Figure 61: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, MENA


Figure 62: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), NA, 2010-2020


Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, NA, 2014-2020


Figure 64: Connections by type, and growth rates, NA, 2014-2020


Figure 65: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, NA, 2010-2020


Figure 66: Mobile ARPU by type, NA, 2010-2020


Figure 67: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, NA


Figure 68: Fixed penetration rates by service type, NA, 2010-2020


Figure 69: Fixed ASPU by service type, NA, 2010-2020


Figure 70: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, NA


Figure 71: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), SSA, 2010-2020


Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, SSA, 2014-2020


Figure 73: Connections by type, and growth rates, SSA, 2014-2020


Figure 74: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, SSA, 2010-2020


Figure 75: Mobile ARPU by type, SSA, 2010-2020


Figure 76: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, SSA


Figure 77: Fixed penetration rates by service type, SSA, 2010-2020


Figure 78: Fixed ASPU by service type, SSA, 2010-2020


Figure 79: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, SSA


Figure 80: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), WE, 2010-2020


Figure 81: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, WE, 2014-2020


Figure 82: Connections by type, and growth rates, WE, 2014-2020


Figure 83: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, WE, 2010-2020


Figure 84: Mobile ARPU by type, WE, 2010-2020


Figure 85: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, WE


Figure 86: Fixed penetration rates by service type, WE, 2010-2020


Figure 87: Fixed ASPU by service type, WE, 2010-2020


Figure 88: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, WE

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
The Developed Asia–Pacific telecoms market: interim forecast update 2015–2020

The Developed Asia–Pacific telecoms market: interim forecast update 2015–2020

  • $ 7 999
  • Industry report
  • March 2016
  • by Analysys Mason

According to our latest forecasts, the total telecoms service revenue for the developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP) region will grow gradually from 2014 to reach USD220 billion in 2020. This report provides ...

The Latin America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2015–2020

The Latin America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2015–2020

  • $ 7 999
  • Industry report
  • April 2016
  • by Analysys Mason

Latin America continues to offer significant opportunities for growth, as advanced technologies are gaining pace in both fixed (next-generation access) and mobile markets (LTE). However, macroeconomic ...

The North America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2015–2020

The North America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2015–2020

  • $ 7 999
  • Industry report
  • April 2016
  • by Analysys Mason

Telecoms service revenue will remain flat in North America during the forecast period because of a slowdown in mobile data revenue growth. Mobile's share of service revenue will decline from 52% in ...


ref:plp2015

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.