"Telecoms service revenue will reach USD1.8 trillion worldwide by 2018, driven by increased service penetration in emerging markets, and higher spend on handset data services in developed countries. This report provides our regional and worldwide telecoms forecasts during 2013–2018, and an analysis of the trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets."

Table Of Contents

Table of contents

9.Executive summary
10.Telecoms service revenue will reach USD1.82 trillion worldwide by 2018, driven by growth in emerging markets and handset data services
11.Mobile handset data will be the single largest source of revenue growth during the next 5 years, driven by smartphone and LTE adoption
12.Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe will be the only regions where telecoms retail revenue will decline during the period up to 2018
13.Forecast revision: We have revised up our 2018 revenue forecast by 1% to reflect stronger-than-expected smartphone take-up and Internet demand
14.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile market
15.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the fixed market
16.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
17.Global forecasts and cross-region comparison
18.Geographical coverage: we model 8 regions and 67 countries, covering 94% of the world’s telecoms service revenue
19.Market context: The three most developed regions accounted for 14% of the world’s population in 2013, but 61% of telecoms service revenue
20.Fixed and mobile penetration: Handset population penetration will reach 100% worldwide by 2018, mainly driven by growth in emerging markets
21.Mobile penetration: We forecast further growth in all regions, except Europe where multiple-SIM ownership may slightly decrease

22.Mobile connections: The 2G:3G:4G technology mix will be 40%:40%:20% by 2018 and North America will account for 82% of 4G connections
23.Smartphones and LTE: North America and Developed Asia will still lead in 2018, but 36% of smartphone net adds will be in China, India and Brazil
24.Mobile ARPU: Competition looks set to intensify and drive down mobile ARPU in all regions - declines in Europe will have the biggest impact
25.Fixed services: FTTH/B growth will be stronger than cable and will help to drive IPTV adoption, particularly in Developed Asia-Pacific
26.Fixed broadband: Emerging Asia-Pacific and Latin America have the highest potential for fixed broadband growth during the next 5 years
27.Revenue and ARPU: Mobile M2M will show the highest growth of any telecoms service, but will account for 1% of retail revenue in 2018
28.Service revenue: Emerging Asia-Pacific will overtake Western Europe to become the second-largest region for telecoms service revenue in 2016
29.Revenue mix: North America will have the largest telecoms market in 2018, but Emerging Asia-Pacific will have the largest mobile market
30.Individual regional forecasts
31.North America: Service revenue will grow modestly until
2017 because data will compensate for falling voice revenue
32.North America: Key trends, drivers and assumptions

33.North America - fixed and mobile penetration: Mobile handset
growth will be slow but smartphone adoption will improve the mix
34.North America - fixed and mobile revenue: The USA will grow
more than Canada because broadband offers greater opportunities
35.Western Europe: Revenue growth for fixed broadband and
handset data will not offset voice and messaging revenue decline
36.Western Europe: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
37.Western Europe - fixed and mobile penetration: Mobile handset
penetration will peak in 2014 and fixed broadband keeps growing
38.Western Europe - fixed and mobile revenue: Growth in new
services fails to outweigh downward pressure on prices
39.Central and Eastern Europe: telecoms service revenue peaked
in 2013 and will move into a period of steady decline
40.Central and Eastern Europe: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
41.Central and Eastern Europe - fixed and mobile penetration: Fixed broadband will grow strongly but remains below Western Europe
42.Central and Eastern Europe - fixed and mobile revenue: Turkey
will be the only country where revenue will grow
43.Developed Asia-Pacific: Service revenue will continue its steady growth, and the shift from voice to data will be robust
44.Developed Asia-Pacific: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
45.Developed Asia-Pacific - fixed and mobile penetration: Fixed
broadband and mobile handsets will continue to grow

46.Developed Asia-Pacific - fixed and mobile revenue: Mobile
revenue will grow in most countries during the next 5 years
47.Emerging Asia-Pacific: The region will replace Europe as the world’s second-largest telecoms market during the forecast period
48.Emerging Asia-Pacific: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
49.Emerging Asia-Pacific - fixed and mobile penetration: EMAP will
account for 66% of handset net additions worldwide
50.Emerging Asia-Pacific - fixed and mobile revenue: Growth will be
highest in China and India, and lowest in Indonesia and Malaysia
51.Latin America: Competition will stimulate steady but slower
growth, driving service revenue to USD179 billion by 2018
52.Latin America: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
53.Latin America - fixed and mobile penetration: Growth in handset
penetration will slow as markets mature
54.Latin America - fixed and mobile revenue: growth in all countries
but it will be weakest in Chile and Mexico due to regulation
55.Middle East and North Africa: Telecoms service revenue will
grow 15% to USD96 billion by 2018, driven by data services
56.Middle East and North Africa: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
57.Middle East and North Africa - fixed and mobile penetration:
Fixed broadband growth will be particularly strong in GCC countries
58.Middle East and North Africa - fixed and mobile revenue: Strong
growth in most countries, except Egypt, Israel and Kuwait
59.Sub-Saharan Africa: Mobile voice and data demand, and growing smartphone penetration, will drive 2018 revenue to USD65 billion
60.Sub-Saharan Africa: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
61.Sub-Saharan Africa - fixed and mobile penetration: Mobile
handsets will continue to dwarf other types of connectivity
62.Sub-Saharan Africa - fixed and mobile revenue: Mobile retail
revenue growth will be more significant than fixed
63.About the authors and Analysys Mason
64.About the authors
65.About Analysys Mason
66.Research from Analysys Mason
67.Consulting from Analysys Mason


List of figures



Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2013-2018
Figure 4: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by region, worldwide
Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, worldwide, 2013 and 2018
Figure 6: Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the mobile market, worldwide, 2013-2018
Figure 7: Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the fixed market, worldwide, 2013-2018
Figure 8: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by region, 2018
Figure 9: Telecoms, demographic and economic metrics for the eight regions of the world, 2013
Figure 10: Fixed and mobile penetration rates by service type, worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 11: Connections by service type, and growth rates, worldwide, 2013-2018
Figure 12: Active mobile SIM penetration by region (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 13: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G’s share of connections, worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 14: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2013 and 2018
Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by region, worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 16: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 17: Fixed broadband penetration of households by region, worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, worldwide, 2013-2018
Figure 20: Service revenue by region, worldwide, 2013
Figure 21: Service revenue by region, worldwide, 2018
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), by region, worldwide, 2013 and 2018
Figure 23: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), North America, 2009-2018
Figure 24: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, North America, 2013-2018
Figure 25: Connections by type, and growth rates, North America, 2013-2018
Figure 26: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, North America
Figure 27: Population penetration rates by service type, North America, 2009-2018
Figure 28: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, North America
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2009-2018
Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 31: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 32: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Western Europe
Figure 33: Population penetration rates by service type, Western Europe, 2009-2018
Figure 34: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), top-five countries by retail revenue, Western Europe
Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2009-2018
Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 38: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 39: Population penetration rates by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009-2018
Figure 40: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), selected countries in Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 41: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 42: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2018
Figure 43: Connections by type, and growth rates, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2018
Figure 44: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Developed Asia-Pacific
Figure 45: Population penetration rates by service type, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 46: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, Developed Asia-Pacific
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013-2018
Figure 49: Connections by type, and growth rates, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013-2018
Figure 50: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Emerging Asia-Pacific
Figure 51: Population penetration rates by service type, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 52: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, Emerging Asia-Pacific
Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Latin America, 2009-2018
Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Latin America, 2013-2018
Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2013-2018
Figure 56: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Latin America
Figure 57: Population penetration rates by service type, Latin America, 2009-2018
Figure 58: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, Latin America
Figure 59: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 60: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 61: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 62: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Middle East and North Africa
Figure 63: Population penetration rates by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 64: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, Middle East and North Africa
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 67: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 68: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 69: Population penetration rates by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 70: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa
Data series in the Excel annex
The following data is provided for each individual region listed under 'Geographical coverage' and for the world as a whole. Figures are provided in USD and local currency units at constant and current exchange rates.
Mobile Connections total (including M2M)
Mobile Connections total (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections penetration (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections prepaid (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections contract (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections prepaid share (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections penetration - prepaid (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections penetration - contract (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections 2G (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections 3G (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections 4G (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections handset
Mobile Connections handset penetration
Mobile Connections handset - prepaid
Mobile Connections handset - contract
Mobile Connections handset - prepaid share
Mobile Connections handset - 2G
Mobile Connections handset - 3G
Mobile Connections handset - 4G
Mobile Connections handset - smartphone
Mobile Connections handset - basic
Mobile Connections broadband
Mobile Connections broadband penetration
Mobile Connections broadband - 2G
Mobile Connections broadband - 3G
Mobile Connections broadband - 4G
Mobile Connections M2M
Mobile Connections M2M penetration
Mobile Service revenue total telecoms
Mobile Service revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Mobile Service revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Mobile Service revenue prepaid
Mobile Service revenue contract
Mobile Service revenue prepaid share
Mobile Service revenue data
Mobile Service revenue data as % of service revenue
Mobile Service revenue handset
Mobile Service revenue handset - prepaid
Mobile Service revenue handset - contract
Mobile Service revenue handset - prepaid share
Mobile Service revenue handset - voice
Mobile Service revenue handset - SMS/MMS messaging
Mobile Service revenue handset - data
Mobile Service revenue broadband
Mobile Service revenue M2M
Mobile Retail revenue total telecoms
Mobile Retail revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Mobile Retail revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Mobile Retail revenue handset
Mobile Retail revenue handset - voice
Mobile Retail revenue handset - SMS/MMS messaging
Mobile Retail revenue handset - data
Mobile Retail revenue broadband
Mobile Retail revenue M2M
Mobile ARPU total telecoms
Mobile ARPU total telecoms - prepaid
Mobile ARPU total telecoms - contract
Mobile ARPU total telecoms (excluding M2M)
Mobile ARPU total telecoms (excluding M2M) - prepaid
Mobile ARPU total telecoms (excluding M2M) - contract
Mobile ARPU handset
Mobile ARPU handset - prepaid
Mobile ARPU handset - contract
Mobile ARPU handset - voice
Mobile Voice traffic outgoing minutes
Mobile Voice traffic outgoing MoU per active connection
Fixed Connections voice
Fixed Connections voice - narrowband
Fixed Connections voice - VoBB
Fixed Connections broadband
Fixed Connections DSL
Fixed Connections FTTH/B
Fixed Connections cable modem
Fixed Connections BFWA
Fixed Connections other fixed broadband
Fixed Connections IPTV
Fixed Connections dial-up Internet
Fixed Service revenue total telecoms
Fixed Service revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Fixed Service revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Fixed Retail revenue total telecoms
Fixed Retail revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Fixed Retail revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Fixed Retail revenue voice
Fixed Retail revenue dial-up Internet
Fixed Retail revenue broadband
Fixed Retail revenue DSL
Fixed Retail revenue FTTH/B
Fixed Retail revenue cable modem
Fixed Retail revenue BFWA
Fixed Retail revenue other fixed broadband retail revenue
Fixed Retail revenue IPTV
Fixed Retail revenue business network services
Fixed Voice traffic outgoing minutes
Fixed Voice traffic outgoing MoU per active connection
Total market Connections voice
Total market Connections broadband
Total market Service revenue total telecoms
Total market Service revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Total market Service revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Total market Retail revenue total telecoms
Total market Retail revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Total market Retail revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Total market Retail revenue voice
Total market Retail revenue non-voice
Total market Voice traffic outgoing minutes

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