Telecoms service revenue will reach USD1.8 trillion worldwide by 2018, driven by increased service penetration in emerging markets, and higher spend on handset data services in developed countries. This report provides our regional and worldwide telecoms forecasts during 2013–2018, and an analysis of the trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets.

About this report
This report and the accompanying data annex provide:
-a 5-year forecast (2013–2018) of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs, worldwide and for eight geographical regions
-an analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service in each region, and a worldwide summary
-an overview of operator strategies and region-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-regional comparison
-a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.
-Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from our topic-led Research programmes and Consulting division, as well as external interviews.
-In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).

Mobile handset data will be the single largest source of revenue growth during the next 5 years, driven by smartphone and LTE adoption
-Telecoms retail revenue will grow by USD145 billion worldwide between 2013 and 2018. High growth in some lines of business will be counterbalanced by significant declines in fixed and mobile voice revenue.
-Mobile handset data revenue, the largest contributor, will grow by USD151 billion, driven by value growth in developed regions (increased customer spend on data services) and volume growth in emerging regions (more smartphone users):
-Developed regions. The shift from mobile voice and messaging to handset data services looks robust. LTE will play an important role in driving data usage in DVAP, NA and WE. By 2018, 20% of mobile connections (excluding M2M) worldwide will be LTE. The USA will maintain its LTE leadership position with 301 million LTE connections (excluding M2M) in 2018 or 19% of total LTE connections worldwide.
-Emerging regions. Smartphone adoption will gain momentum, particularly in LATAM (smartphones will account for 57% of mobile handsets by 2018) and EMAP (47%). Cheaper devices, handset subsidies, bundled offers and voice–data packages will become increasingly important growth drivers because new adopters have lower disposable incomes than established subscribers.

Table Of Contents

Contents

9.Executive summary
10.Telecoms service revenue will reach USD1.82 trillion worldwide by 2018, driven by growth in emerging markets and handset data services
11.Mobile handset data will be the single largest source of revenue growth during the next 5 years, driven by smartphone and LTE adoption
12.Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe will be the only regions where telecoms retail revenue will decline during the period up to 2018
13.Forecast revision: We have revised up our 2018 revenue forecast by 1% to reflect stronger-than-expected smartphone take-up and Internet demand
14.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile market
15.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the fixed market
16.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
17.Global forecasts and cross-region comparison
18.Geographical coverage: we model 8 regions and 67 countries, covering 94% of the world’s telecoms service revenue
19.Market context: The three most developed regions accounted for 14% of the world’s population in 2013, but 61% of telecoms service revenue
20.Fixed and mobile penetration: Handset population penetration will reach 100% worldwide by 2018, mainly driven by growth in emerging markets
21.Mobile penetration: We forecast further growth in all regions, except Europe where multiple-SIM ownership may slightly decrease
22.Mobile connections: The 2G:3G:4G technology mix will be 40%:40%:20% by 2018 and North America will account for 82% of 4G connections
23.Smartphones and LTE: North America and Developed Asia will still lead in 2018, but 36% of smartphone net adds will be in China, India and Brazil
24.Mobile ARPU: Competition looks set to intensify and drive down mobile ARPU in all regions - declines in Europe will have the biggest impact
25.Fixed services: FTTH/B growth will be stronger than cable and will help to drive IPTV adoption, particularly in Developed Asia-Pacific
26.Fixed broadband: Emerging Asia-Pacific and Latin America have the highest potential for fixed broadband growth during the next 5 years
27.Revenue and ARPU: Mobile M2M will show the highest growth of any telecoms service, but will account for 1% of retail revenue in 2018
28.Service revenue: Emerging Asia-Pacific will overtake Western Europe to become the second-largest region for telecoms service revenue in 2016
29.Revenue mix: North America will have the largest telecoms market in 2018, but Emerging Asia-Pacific will have the largest mobile market
30.Individual regional forecasts
31.North America: Service revenue will grow modestly until 2017 because data will compensate for falling voice revenue
32.North America: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
33.North America - fixed and mobile penetration: Mobile handset growth will be slow but smartphone adoption will improve the mix
34.North America - fixed and mobile revenue: The USA will grow more than Canada because broadband offers greater opportunities
35.Western Europe: Revenue growth for fixed broadband and handset data will not offset voice and messaging revenue decline
36.Western Europe: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
37.Western Europe - fixed and mobile penetration: Mobile handset penetration will peak in 2014 and fixed broadband keeps growing
38.Western Europe - fixed and mobile revenue: Growth in new services fails to outweigh downward pressure on prices
39.Central and Eastern Europe: telecoms service revenue peaked in 2013 and will move into a period of steady decline
40.Central and Eastern Europe: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
41.Central and Eastern Europe - fixed and mobile penetration: Fixed broadband will grow strongly but remains below Western Europe
42.Central and Eastern Europe - fixed and mobile revenue: Turkey will be the only country where revenue will grow
43.Developed Asia-Pacific: Service revenue will continue its steady growth, and the shift from voice to data will be robust
44.Developed Asia-Pacific: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
45.Developed Asia-Pacific - fixed and mobile penetration: Fixed broadband and mobile handsets will continue to grow
46.Developed Asia-Pacific - fixed and mobile revenue: Mobile revenue will grow in most countries during the next 5 years
47.Emerging Asia-Pacific: The region will replace Europe as the world’s second-largest telecoms market during the forecast period
48.Emerging Asia-Pacific: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
49.Emerging Asia-Pacific - fixed and mobile penetration: EMAP will account for 66% of handset net additions worldwide
50.Emerging Asia-Pacific - fixed and mobile revenue: Growth will be highest in China and India, and lowest in Indonesia and Malaysia
51.Latin America: Competition will stimulate steady but slower growth, driving service revenue to USD179 billion by 2018
52.Latin America: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
53.Latin America - fixed and mobile penetration: Growth in handset penetration will slow as markets mature
54.Latin America - fixed and mobile revenue: growth in all countries but it will be weakest in Chile and Mexico due to regulation
55.Middle East and North Africa: Telecoms service revenue will grow 15% to USD96 billion by 2018, driven by data services
56.Middle East and North Africa: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
57.Middle East and North Africa - fixed and mobile penetration: Fixed broadband growth will be particularly strong in GCC countries
58.Middle East and North Africa - fixed and mobile revenue: Strong growth in most countries, except Egypt, Israel and Kuwait
59.Sub-Saharan Africa: Mobile voice and data demand, and growing smartphone penetration, will drive 2018 revenue to USD65 billion
60.Sub-Saharan Africa: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
61.Sub-Saharan Africa - fixed and mobile penetration: Mobile handsets will continue to dwarf other types of connectivity
62.Sub-Saharan Africa - fixed and mobile revenue: Mobile retail revenue growth will be more significant than fixed
63.About the authors and Analysys Mason
64.About the authors
65.About Analysys Mason
66.Research from Analysys Mason
67.Consulting from Analysys Mason


List of figures

Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2013-2018
Figure 4: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by region, worldwide
Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, worldwide, 2013 and 2018
Figure 6: Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the mobile market, worldwide, 2013-2018
Figure 7: Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the fixed market, worldwide, 2013-2018
Figure 8: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by region, 2018
Figure 9: Telecoms, demographic and economic metrics for the eight regions of the world, 2013
Figure 10: Fixed and mobile penetration rates by service type, worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 11: Connections by service type, and growth rates, worldwide, 2013-2018
Figure 12: Active mobile SIM penetration by region (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 13: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G’s share of connections, worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 14: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2013 and 2018
Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by region, worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 16: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 17: Fixed broadband penetration of households by region, worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, worldwide, 2009-2018
Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, worldwide, 2013-2018
Figure 20: Service revenue by region, worldwide, 2013
Figure 21: Service revenue by region, worldwide, 2018
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), by region, worldwide, 2013 and 2018
Figure 23: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), North America, 2009-2018
Figure 24: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, North America, 2013-2018
Figure 25: Connections by type, and growth rates, North America, 2013-2018
Figure 26: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, North America
Figure 27: Population penetration rates by service type, North America, 2009-2018
Figure 28: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, North America
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2009-2018
Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 31: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 32: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Western Europe
Figure 33: Population penetration rates by service type, Western Europe, 2009-2018
Figure 34: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), top-five countries by retail revenue, Western Europe
Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2009-2018
Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 38: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 39: Population penetration rates by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009-2018
Figure 40: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), selected countries in Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 41: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 42: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2018
Figure 43: Connections by type, and growth rates, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2018
Figure 44: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Developed Asia-Pacific
Figure 45: Population penetration rates by service type, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 46: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, Developed Asia-Pacific
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013-2018
Figure 49: Connections by type, and growth rates, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013-2018
Figure 50: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Emerging Asia-Pacific
Figure 51: Population penetration rates by service type, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 52: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, Emerging Asia-Pacific
Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Latin America, 2009-2018
Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Latin America, 2013-2018
Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2013-2018
Figure 56: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Latin America
Figure 57: Population penetration rates by service type, Latin America, 2009-2018
Figure 58: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, Latin America
Figure 59: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 60: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 61: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 62: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Middle East and North Africa
Figure 63: Population penetration rates by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 64: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, Middle East and North Africa
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 67: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 68: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 69: Population penetration rates by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 70: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa

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