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"We anticipate stronger growth in mobile and broadband markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region than previously forecast, and faster decline in messaging and fixed voice revenue. This interim update report evaluates, explains and quantifies the impact of recent market developments on our comprehensive 5-year market forecasts for the MENA region."

Table Of Contents

The Middle East and North Africa telecoms market: 2014 interim forecast update 2013-2018
Table of contents
7.Executive summary
8.The telecoms service market in the Middle East and North Africa will grow at a 2.9% CAGR to reach USD96 billion by 2018
9.Mobile data and fixed broadband will be the services with most growth, driven by increasing smartphone penetration and Internet demand
10.We have reduced our 2018 retail revenue forecasts because of a lower outlook for fixed voice, mobile broadband and business network services
11.Regional forecasts and summary of revisions
12.New forecast by service: telecoms service revenue will grow to USD96 billion in MENA in 2018, driven by mobile and fixed data services
13.Forecast revision by service: mobile broadband revenue has been reduced to reflect the shift to smartphones for data access
14.New revenue forecast by country: strong net growth in telecoms retail revenue is expected in most countries, except Egypt, Israel and Kuwait
15.New forecast by country: Israel and the GCC countries will lead the MENA region in terms of smartphone and LTE penetration by 2018
16.Forecast revision by country: we have reduced our CAGR forecasts for retail revenue in all modelled countries except Israel
17.Key trends since our previous forecast: growth in smartphone adoption is exceeding expectations, while mobile broadband is lagging behind
18.Key trends since our previous forecast: M2M growth is revised downwards, and the decline in fixed voice connections accelerates
19.Key trends since our previous forecast: stronger-than-expected FTTx market growth will help offset the decline of fixed voice revenue
20.Individual country forecasts
21.Algeria: 3G will drive demand for mobile data services, and help maintain solid growth in the non-messaging mobile market
22.Algeria: Fixed and mobile voice were more resilient than anticipated; 3G will accelerate fixed-mobile broadband substitution
23.Egypt: Demand for handset data services will stimulate marginal growth, but political unrest is hampering the market
24.Egypt: Political instability has caused big changes since the last forecast, and the shift to handset data usage has accelerated
25.Israel: Competition and price erosion continue to hinder mobile growth, while fixed voice decline will be slower than expected
26.Israel: The outlook has improved slightly since our previous forecast because of operators' efforts to slow down price erosion
27.Kuwait: Mobile and fixed data services will offer greater growth opportunities, while voice and messaging revenue is set to decline
28.Kuwait: Mobile data demand, supported by the recent LTE launch, will help boost revenue, while fixed broadband also shows growth
29.Morocco: Voice continues to dominate the mobile market, although data services will represent a growing share of retail revenue
30.Morocco: We have made changes to the outlook for LTE, handset data, mobile broadband and fixed broadband
31.Qatar: High revenue CAGR for handset data will drive growth in telecoms revenue
32.Qatar: Growth prospects are strong for both fixed and mobile markets, driven by ambitious plans for high-speed broadband
33.Saudi Arabia: Retail revenue in MENA's largest telecoms market will grow at a 2.5% CAGR, driven by broadband and data
34.Saudi Arabia: Mobile broadband and smartphone adoption exceeds expectations, while fixed broadband offsets declining voice revenue
35.UAE: Retail revenue will grow at a 3.1% CAGR, led by high growth in mobile handset data, and fixed and mobile broadband
36.UAE: New forecasts reflect accelerated erosion of legacy mobile services and increased adoption of smartphones and fibre
37.About the author and Analysys Mason
38.About the author
39.About Analysys Mason
40.Research from Analysys Mason
41.Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures

Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2013 and 2018
Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 8: CAGRs for telecoms retail revenue by service type, previous and new forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 9: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013 and 2018
Figure 10: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2013 and 2018
Figure 11: CAGRs for telecoms retail revenue by country, previous and new forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 12a-c: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for the Middle East and North Africa
Figure 13: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Algeria, 2009-2018
Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Algeria, 2013-2018
Figure 15: Connections by type, and growth rates, Algeria, 2013-2018
Figure 16: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Algeria
Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Egypt, 2009-2018
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Egypt, 2013-2018
Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Egypt, 2013-2018
Figure 20: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Egypt
Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Israel, 2009-2018
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Israel, 2013-2018
Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Israel, 2013-2018
Figure 24: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Israel
Figure 25: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Kuwait, 2009-2018
Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Kuwait, 2013-2018
Figure 27: Connections by type, and growth rates, Kuwait, 2013-2018
Figure 28: Summary of major drivers for our market forecast for Kuwait
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Morocco, 2009-2018
Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Morocco, 2013-2018
Figure 31: Connections by type, and growth rates, Morocco, 2013-2018
Figure 32: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Morocco
Figure 33: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Qatar, 2009-2018
Figure 34: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Qatar, 2013-2018
Figure 35: Connections by type, and growth rates, Qatar, 2013-2018
Figure 36: Summary of major drivers for our market forecast for Qatar
Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Saudi Arabia, 2009-2018
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2013-2018
Figure 39: Connections by type, and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2013-2018
Figure 40: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Saudi Arabia
Figure 41: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, UAE, 2009-2018
Figure 42: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UAE, 2013-2018
Figure 43: Connections by type, and growth rates, UAE, 2013-2018
Figure 44: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for the UAE
Geographical coverage
Forecast data is provided for the following individual countries, as well as for the region as a whole:
Algeria
Egypt
Israel
Kuwait
Morocco
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Data series in the Excel annex
The following data is provided for each individual country listed in under 'Geographical coverage' and for the region as a whole. Figures are provided in USD and local currency units at constant and current exchange rates.
Mobile Connections total (including M2M)
Mobile Connections total (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections penetration (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections prepaid (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections contract (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections prepaid share (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections penetration - prepaid (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections penetration - contract (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections 2G (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections 3G (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections 4G (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections handset
Mobile Connections handset penetration
Mobile Connections handset - prepaid
Mobile Connections handset - contract
Mobile Connections handset - prepaid share
Mobile Connections handset - 2G
Mobile Connections handset - 3G
Mobile Connections handset - 4G
Mobile Connections handset - smartphone
Mobile Connections handset - basic
Mobile Connections broadband
Mobile Connections broadband penetration
Mobile Connections broadband - 2G
Mobile Connections broadband - 3G
Mobile Connections broadband - 4G
Mobile Connections M2M
Mobile Connections M2M penetration
Mobile Service revenue total telecoms
Mobile Service revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Mobile Service revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Mobile Service revenue prepaid
Mobile Service revenue contract
Mobile Service revenue prepaid share
Mobile Service revenue data
Mobile Service revenue data as % of service revenue
Mobile Service revenue handset
Mobile Service revenue handset - prepaid
Mobile Service revenue handset - contract
Mobile Service revenue handset - prepaid share
Mobile Service revenue handset - voice
Mobile Service revenue handset - SMS/MMS messaging
Mobile Service revenue handset - data
Mobile Service revenue broadband
Mobile Service revenue M2M
Mobile Retail revenue total telecoms
Mobile Retail revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Mobile Retail revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Mobile Retail revenue handset
Mobile Retail revenue handset - voice
Mobile Retail revenue handset - SMS/MMS messaging
Mobile Retail revenue handset - data
Mobile Retail revenue broadband
Mobile Retail revenue M2M
Mobile ARPU total telecoms
Mobile ARPU total telecoms - prepaid
Mobile ARPU total telecoms - contract
Mobile ARPU total telecoms (excluding M2M)
Mobile ARPU total telecoms (excluding M2M) - prepaid
Mobile ARPU total telecoms (excluding M2M) - contract
Mobile ARPU handset
Mobile ARPU handset - prepaid
Mobile ARPU handset - contract
Mobile ARPU handset - voice
Mobile Voice traffic outgoing minutes
Mobile Voice traffic outgoing MoU per active connection
Fixed Connections voice
Fixed Connections voice - narrowband
Fixed Connections voice - VoBB
Fixed Connections broadband
Fixed Connections DSL
Fixed Connections FTTH/B
Fixed Connections cable modem
Fixed Connections BFWA
Fixed Connections other fixed broadband
Fixed Connections IPTV
Fixed Connections dial-up Internet
Fixed Service revenue total telecoms
Fixed Service revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Fixed Service revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Fixed Retail revenue total telecoms
Fixed Retail revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Fixed Retail revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Fixed Retail revenue voice
Fixed Retail revenue dial-up Internet
Fixed Retail revenue broadband
Fixed Retail revenue DSL
Fixed Retail revenue FTTH/B
Fixed Retail revenue cable modem
Fixed Retail revenue BFWA
Fixed Retail revenue other fixed broadband retail revenue
Fixed Retail revenue IPTV
Fixed Retail revenue business network services
Fixed Voice traffic outgoing minutes
Fixed Voice traffic outgoing MoU per active connection
Total market Connections voice
Total market Connections broadband
Total market Service revenue total telecoms
Total market Service revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Total market Service revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Total market Retail revenue total telecoms
Total market Retail revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Total market Retail revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Total market Retail revenue voice
Total market Retail revenue non-voice
Total market Voice traffic outgoing minutes

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