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Uganda Infrastructure Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 36 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Uganda's construction sector is forecast to expand by 7.7% in real terms over our full forecastperiod, with investment flows into bringing Uganda's oil reserves online a major driver of growth, alongwith improvements to overall logistics capacity. Additional revenue from oil exports when the first reservesare brought online will help to ease the pressure on Uganda's fiscal deficit, which has come under furtherstrain as infrastructure spending reaches a record high.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- We forecast the industry to expand 7.1% in real terms in 2016 and 7.7% over our forecast period up to2025. Around USD11bn has been earmarked for the development of the country's infrastructure over thenext 10 years through public and private investment.

- Nominal industry value is expected to almost triple over our forecast period, from an estimatedUSD3.2bn in 2015 to USD9.2bn in 2025.

- Oil reserves are forecast to come online in 2020, which will provide the government with additionalrevenue to funnel into infrastructure. Oil infrastructure itself, as well as the build of the oil industry, willbe a major driver of growth.

- The small size of the Ugandan construction market will weigh on the rewards on offer for investors,given the risks in exposure to a market without significant and long-term opportunities that come withlarger markets.

Table Of Contents

Uganda Infrastructure Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: 5-Year Forecast Scenario (Uganda 2016-2020) 5
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (Uganda 2016) 6
SWOT 7
Infrastructure SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Infrastructure And Construction Forecast Scenario 9
Table: 10 Year Forecast Scenario (2015-2025) 9
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 17
Uganda - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 17
Rewards 17
Risks 17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 19
Table: SSA RRI 27
Methodology 29
Industry Forecast Methodology 29
Sector-Specific Methodology 30
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 34
Sector-Specific Methodology 35
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 35
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 36

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