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Global Gas and Steam Turbine Markets

  • June 2014
  • Frost & Sullivan
Report ID: 2171916

Summary

Table of Contents

Conventional Thermal Power Expansion Driven by Emerging Markets and Rising Natural Gas Availability

This study provides in-depth analyses of the global gas and steam turbine markets. Global revenue and order forecasts, drivers and restraints, competitive analyses, company market shares, and pricing and technology trends are evaluated. It also provides segment forecasts by power range, region, and application. The gas turbine market is driven by replacing aging coal plants with modern gas-fired power stations, the growing availability and use of natural and shale gas, expansion of the oil and gas industry, and rising need for more flexible generating assets. Steam turbine growth is driven by large coal-fired capacity additions, growth in CCGT plants requiring steam turbines, expansion of nuclear power, and upgrades to outdated coal plants.

Key Findings

-Global gas turbine market revenue is expected to increase from $billion in 2013 to reach $ billion by 2020, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of % over this period.
-The market is driven by the replacement of aging coal plants with modern gas-fired power stations, the growing availability and usage of natural gas in power generation, strong expansion of the global oil and gas industry, and the rising need for more flexible generating assets linked to the growth of intermittent power generation based on renewable energy sources.
-Strong growth is anticipated for the years beyond 2016, as the prospects for new gas plants start to improve in the weak European region and growth accelerates in China and India.
-Total global orders for gas turbines are forecast to rise from megawatts (MW) in 2013 to MW in 2020. The market will expand significantly, with order levels rising in excess of % annually from 2015 onwards, before growth trails off towards the end of the forecast period as emerging markets become more mature and renewable energy becomes a more attractive proposition for large-scale generation.
-A total ofgigawatts (GW) of gas turbines are forecast to be ordered over the 2013 to 2020 period.
-The small- and medium-sized gas turbine output ranges are expected to grow faster than larger units. This is largely driven by on-going market uncertainty in the utilities sector, mainly across developed markets, over the future of carbon markets and the development of renewable energy, affecting the outlook for conventional generation. Smaller ranges will benefit from the greater need for flexible generating units and the growth of the oil and gas industry.
-Power utilities and independent power producers (IPPs) represent the bulk of gas turbine orders in the market, accounting for over two-thirds of orders in the market. Going forward, both the mechanical drive and industrial segments will expand more rapidly than the utility/IPP segment.
-Gas turbine prices have fallen from their peak by approximately % as a result of reduced demand in power generation equipment in the aftermath of the economic crisis but have remained relatively stable since 2012. Frost & Sullivan expects global prices to start picking up from 2014 as demand for gas turbines rises and manufacturers’ spare production capacities are reduced with significant regional variations.
-The latest generation of gas turbines were initially conceived with greater efficiency as the key goal, but greater operating flexibility has emerged as the key battleground between original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).
-China is expected to become the leading gas turbine region as the position of the Middle East, hitherto the undisputed leader, declines gradually. China is aggressively promoting gas turbine plants in a bid to reduce dependence on coal plants and promote fuel diversification.
-The global steam turbine market is expected to increase from $ billion in 2013 to reach $ billion by 2020, corresponding to a CAGR of % over this period. The market is driven by large coal-fired capacity additions in emerging markets such as China and India, growth in combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) plants requiring steam turbines, the expansion of nuclear power, and the trend towards upgrading outdated coal plants with supercritical and ultra-supercritical technology.
-Global orders for steam turbines will remain broadly stable over the forecast period, rising marginally, from , MW in 2013 to , MW in 2020. Recovering order levels in some developed regions will be offset by weakening order levels in the world’s largest steam turbine market, China.
-Small- and medium-sized steam turbine output ranges are forecast to rise somewhat faster compared to the average growth as a result of better financing prospects for smaller plants as well as industrial applications, including those in the expanding oil and gas industry.
-Unlike gas turbines, steam turbines are highly customised so prices vary substantially depending on the specific location, application, technology (sub-critical versus supercritical or ultra-supercritical), and the customer’s buying power. Frost & Sullivan expects steam turbine prices to remain fairly stable over the next few years, reflecting the highly competitive nature of the market and Chinese OEMs increasingly making inroads into other markets.
-Ultra-supercritical (USC) steam turbines can achieve efficiencies of up to%, compared with an average of % for sub-critical units. USC units have started to replace older plants at an accelerating pace, as China has increasingly installed USC machines.
-Major OEMs and institutions in Europe, the United States, Japan, China, and India are working on breaking through the% efficiency barrier, focusing on raising the temperature and pressure of steam turbine operating conditions.
-While China’s share of the steam turbine market is forecast to decline over time—albeit remaining in a dominant position—India’s share will expand upon resolving its coal shortage issues. Southeast Asia will also grow strongly as it looks to coal to reduce gas dependence.
-The European market will remain weak amid uncertainty over future power demand growth and financially troubled utilities.

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