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World Hybrid & Electric Vehicles Market

  • June 2014
  • -
  • Freedonia
  • -
  • 426 pages

Global H/EV sales to reach 25 million units in 2018

Hybrid and electric vehicle (H/EV) sales will more than double to 25 million units in 2018. Market advances will be led by micro and mild hybrids. Micro hybrids are conventional vehicles equipped with start-stop systems. Mild hybrids also have regenerative braking, and some of these come equipped with a small electric motor that helps start the vehicle but can not propel it without the aid of an internal combustion engine. These systems offer significant fuel savings considering their relatively low cost, and can lower overall vehicle emissions. In 2018, micro and mild hybrids will account for 80 percent of all H/EV demand, followed by full and plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles.

Western Europe to remain largest regional market

Western Europe was the first region to adopt micro/mild hybrid vehicles on a mass scale. As a result, it will remain the largest regional market for micro and mild hybrids and for H/EVs overall, representing 44 percent of total demand in 2018. However, micro/mild hybrid sales are projected to grow faster in other parts of the world, particularly in North America and the Asia/Pacific region. Electric vehicle demand in these regions will exhibit the fastest gains of any type through 2018, albeit from a very small current market base.

Expansion in China, Japan to spur Asia/Pacific growth

The Asia/Pacific region, led by China, will represent the fastest growing market for H/EVs through 2018. Sales gains will be fueled by an increasing number of micro/mild hybrids offered for sale in the country and further narrowing of the price premium over conventional vehicles. In addition, European, Japanese, and US automakers will continue to open and expand existing plants in China and partner with domestic firms to take advantage of government subsidies for vehicles purchased from locally based suppliers. The Asia/Pacific region is also home to Japan, which will remain the world’s largest market for full and plug-in hybrids, representing two-fifths of all demand for those vehicle types in 2018. The US will continue to have the world’s highest electric vehicle sales, accounting for over one-fifth of the global total.

Higher fuel prices, lower cost parts key to H/EV affordability

Increases in overall H/EV demand will be stimulated by high global fuel prices and supported by reductions in component (especially battery) prices as output levels climb and greater economies of scale are achieved. This will help make H/EVs more affordable to the average vehicle purchaser, a particularly major factor in industrializing countries where privately owned vehicles remain a relative luxury. Heightened concerns about air pollution worldwide will also lead to the enactment of additional regulations and subsidy programs supporting sales and use of H/EVs, as these vehicles have the potential to significantly reduce tailpipe emissions.Light vehicles will account for over 99 percent of all H/EV sales in 2018. Nevertheless, demand for fuel-efficient H/EV medium and heavy duty trucks will more than triple as their price premium over conventional models shrinks. The technology required to manufacture H/EVs is more sophisticated than that for conventional motor vehicles. As a result, H/EV production is concentrated among a relatively few large automakers with considerable research and development resources. However, a number of smaller startup companies have entered the electric vehicle industry, with Tesla Motors being the most successful to date. While merger and acquisition activity among vehicle producers is rare, most OEMs have at least one H/EV-related cooperative agreement with another automaker.

Study coverage

This upcoming Freedonia industry study presents historical data (2003, 2008 and 2013) plus forecasts for 2018 and 2023 for supply and demand, as well as demand by type and segment, in 6 regions and 17 countries. The study also assesses key market environment factors, examines emerging technology, evaluates company market share data and profiles 44 global competitors.

Table Of Contents

World Hybrid and Electric Vehicles Market
TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION xii

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT 4

General 4
World Economic Overview 5
Recent Historical Trends 5
World Economic Outlook 6
World Population Overview 10
Per Capita GDP Trends 12
World Motor Vehicle Overview 14
Motor Vehicle Production 15
Motor Vehicle Demand 18
Motor Vehicles in Use 20
Environmental and Regulatory Factors 22
Emissions Regulations 23
Rebates and Incentives 25
Pricing Trends 27

III. TECHNOLOGY 29

General 29
Hybrid and Electric Powerplants 30
Micro/Mild Hybrid 32
Full Hybrid 33
Plug-In Hybrid 34
Battery Electric 34
Fuel Cell 35
Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Commercialization Issues 36
Safety Concerns 36
Battery Life 36
Electric Vehicle Range 38
Fueling Infrastructure Readiness 38
Energy Storage Technologies 39
Well-to-Wheels Efficiency and Pollution Comparisons 41
(continued on next page)
Regulatory Compliance 42
Technology Penetration 44

IV. WORLD SUPPLY and DEMAND 45

General 45
Regional Overview 46
Demand 46
Vehicles in Use 49
Production 51
Micro/Mild Hybrid Vehicle Production 54
Full/Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Production 55
International Trade 56
Demand by Type 58
Hybrid 61
Micro/Mild Hybrid 62
Full Hybrid 65
Plug-In Hybrid 68
Electric 70
Battery 72
Fuel Cell 73
Demand by Segment 75
Light Vehicles 75
Medium and Heavy Trucks and Buses 78

V. NORTH AMERICA 80

General 80
Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 81
Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Market Outlook 85
United States 87
Canada 94
Mexico 100

VI. WESTERN EUROPE 107

General 107
Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 109
Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Market Outlook 112
(continued on next page)
Germany 115
United Kingdom 121
France 127
Italy 133
Spain 139
Netherlands 145
Belgium 151
Austria 157
Sweden 163
Other Western Europe 169

VII. ASIA/PACIFIC 176

General 176
Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 178
Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Market Outlook 181
Japan 184
China 191
India 197
South Korea 204
Other Asia/Pacific 210

VIII. OTHER REGIONS 217

Central and South America 217
Eastern Europe 224
Russia 231
Poland 237
Other Eastern Europe 243
Africa/Mideast 249

IX. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 257

General 257
Industry Composition 258
Market Share 261
Micro/Mild Hybrid Vehicles 262
Full/Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles 263
Electric Vehicles 264
(continued on next page)
Research and Product Development 266
Manufacturing 267
OEM and Supplier Competitive Strategies 268
Marketing and Distribution 269
Cooperative Agreements 271
Financial Issues and Requirements 280
Mergers, Acquisitions, and Industry Restructuring 281
Company Profiles 283
Alcoa Incorporated 284
Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Company Limited 285
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG 286
Blue Energy, see GS Yuasa and Honda Motor
BMW Brilliance Automotive, see Bayerische Motoren
Werke
Bosch (Robert) GmbH 290
BYD Company Limited 295
Chery Automobile Company Limited 298
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited 299
Continental AG 301
Daimler AG 304
Delphi Automotive plc 311
DENSO Corporation 314
Deutsche ACCUmotive, see Daimler
Eaton Corporation plc 316
Exide Technologies 318
Fiat SpA 320
Ford Motor Company 322
Freescale Semiconductor Incorporated 325
Freightliner Custom Chassis, see Daimler
Fuji Electric Company Limited 326
General Motors Company 328
Gillig LLC 331
GS Yuasa Corporation 332
Halla Visteon Climate Control, see Visteon
Hitachi Limited 334
Honda Motor Company Limited 336
(continued on next page)
Hyundai Motor Company 341
JAC Motors, see Anhui Jianghuai Automobile
JATCO, see Mitsubishi Motors and Nissan Motor
Johnson Controls Incorporated 345
Keihin Corporation 347
Kia Motors, see Hyundai Motor
LG Chem Limited 349
Linamar Corporation 351
Lithium Energy and Power, see Bosch (Robert) and GS
Yuasa
Lithium Energy Japan, see GS Yuasa and Mitsubishi
Motors
Mazda Motor Corporation 353
Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus, see Daimler
Mitsubishi Motors Corporation 355
New Flyer Industries Incorporated 359
Nissan Motor Company Limited 361
NMKV, see Mitsubishi Motors and Nissan Motor
NuCellSys, see Daimler
Panasonic Corporation 368
Peugeot SA 370
Renault SA 373
Saft Groupe SA 378
SAIC Motor Corporation Limited 380
Samsung SDI Company Limited 381
SB LiMotive, see Samsung SDI
Shenzhen BYD Daimler New Technology, see BYD and
Daimler
Suzuki Motor Corporation 383
TE Connectivity Limited 385
Tesla Motors Incorporated 386
Toshiba Corporation 389
Toyota Motor Corporation 391
Valeo SA 398
Visteon Corporation 402
Volkswagen AG 404
(continued on next page)
Volvo Car Group 410
ZF Friedrichshafen AG 412
Zytek Group Limited 415
Other Companies Mentioned in the Study 417


LIST OF TABLES

SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary Table 3
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
1 World Gross Domestic Product by Region 9
2 World Population by Region 12
3 World Per Capita Gross Domestic Product by Region 14
4 World Motor Vehicle Production by Type and Region 18
5 World Motor Vehicle Demand by Type and Region 20
6 World Motor Vehicles in Use by Type and Region 22
SECTION III -- TECHNOLOGY
1 Comparison of Hybrid and Electric Powertrain Types 31
SECTION IV -- WORLD SUPPLY and DEMAND
1 World Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand by Region 48
2 World Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in Use by Region 50
3 World Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Production by Region 53
4 World Micro/Mild Hybrid Vehicle Production by Region 55
5 World Full/Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicle
Production by Region 56
6 World Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Net Exports by Region 58
7 World Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand by Type 60
8 World Hybrid Vehicle Demand by Type and Region 62
9 World Micro/Mild Hybrid Vehicle Demand by Region 64
10 World Full Hybrid Vehicle Demand by Region 67
11 World Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Demand by Region 69
12 World Electric Vehicle Demand by Type and Region 71
13 World Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand by Segment 75
14 World Hybrid and Electric Light Vehicle
Demand by Type and Region 77
15 World Hybrid and Electric Medium and Heavy Duty
Truck and Bus Demand by Type and Region 79
(continued on next page)
SECTION V -- NORTH AMERICA
1 North America: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 84
2 North America: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 86
3 United States: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 91
4 United States: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 93
5 Canada: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 98
6 Canada: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 100
7 Mexico: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 104
8 Mexico: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 106
SECTION VI -- WESTERN EUROPE
1 Western Europe: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle
Supply and Demand 111
2 Western Europe: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 114
3 Germany: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 119
4 Germany: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 121
5 United Kingdom: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle
Supply and Demand 125
6 United Kingdom: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 127
7 France: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 131
8 France: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 133
9 Italy: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 137
10 Italy: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 139
11 Spain: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 143
12 Spain: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 145
13 Netherlands: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 149
(continued on next page)
14 Netherlands: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 151
15 Belgium: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 155
16 Belgium: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 157
17 Austria: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 161
18 Austria: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 163
19 Sweden: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 167
20 Sweden: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 169
21 Other Western Europe: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle
Supply and Demand 173
22 Other Western Europe: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 175
SECTION VII -- ASIA/PACIFIC
1 Asia/Pacific: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 180
2 Asia/Pacific: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 183
3 Japan: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 188
4 Japan: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 190
5 China: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 195
6 China: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 197
7 India: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 202
8 India: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 204
9 South Korea: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 208
10 South Korea: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 210
11 Other Asia/Pacific: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle
Supply and Demand 214
12 Other Asia/Pacific: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 216
SECTION VIII -- OTHER REGIONS
1 Central and South America: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle
Supply and Demand 221
2 Central and South America: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle
Demand by Type and Segment 223
3 Eastern Europe: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle
Supply and Demand 227
4 Eastern Europe: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 230
5 Russia: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 235
6 Russia: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 237
7 Poland: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand 241
8 Poland: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 243
9 Other Eastern Europe: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle
Supply and Demand 247
10 Other Eastern Europe: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 249
11 Africa/Mideast: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle
Supply and Demand 254
12 Africa/Mideast: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Type and Segment 256
SECTION IX -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1 World Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Sales by Company, 2013 260
2 Selected Cooperative Agreements 273
3 Selected Acquisitions and Divestitures 282


LIST OF CHARTS

SECTION IV -- WORLD SUPPLY and DEMAND
1 World Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand by Region, 2013 49
2 World Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in Use by Region, 2013 51
3 World Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Production by Region, 2013 54
4 World Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand by Type, 2013 60
5 World Micro/Mild Hybrid Vehicle Demand by Region, 2013 65
6 World Full Hybrid Vehicle Demand by Region, 2013 68
7 World Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Demand by Region, 2013 70
8 World Electric Vehicle Demand by Region, 2013 72
SECTION V -- NORTH AMERICA
1 North America: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Country, 2013 85
SECTION VI -- WESTERN EUROPE
1 Western Europe: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Country, 2013 112
SECTION VII -- ASIA/PACIFIC
1 Asia/Pacific: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Country, 2013 181
SECTION VIII -- OTHER REGIONS
1 Eastern Europe: Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Demand
by Country, 2013 228
SECTION IX -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1 World Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Market Share, 2013 262
2 World Micro/Mild Hybrid Vehicle Market Share, 2013 263
3 World Full/Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Market Share, 2013 264
4 World Electric Vehicle Market Share, 2013 265

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