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The FTTx roll-out and capex worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2014–2019

  • June 2014
  • -
  • Analysys Mason
  • -
  • 64 pages

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The commercial and economic environment for next-generation access (NGA) has evolved quickly during the past 12 months, and operators will have to adapt their long-term plans to match the changes. This report forecasts coverage and take-up of different NGA technologies, assesses the costs and points to opportunities.

About this report

This report provides:

-a 5-year forecast of coverage, take-up and capex split by four FTTx technology options (FTTC/VDSL, FTTB/dp/VDSL, FTTB/LAN and FTTH), plus DOCSIS3.0+ and VDSL-CO in 57 countries and 7 regions
-an assessment of the business environment, the technology drivers and the cost trends behind our forecasts
-key implications and recommendations for operators in the region.
-The forecast levels of capex are what we consider the most likely outcome based on operators’ current thinking.
-The model can serve several other functions beyond the immediate scope of this report. It can be used to provide the costs of alternative scenarios, for example: different mixes of technologies, different demand profiles in different geotypes, different completion dates. If you wish to explore these options, please contact the author.
-For the complete data set, see the accompanying Excel file at www.analysysmason.com/FTTx-2014.

The business environment for fixed NGA has changed a great deal in the past 12 months

- The general economic environment has improved in key regions such as Europe. Revenue trends for fixed broadband, particularly NGA, are strong, and significantly
stronger than those of mobile (see Figure 36). We forecast stronger growth in fixed broadband than mobile in every region until 2019 (see Figure 37). (Mobile revenue is
nevertheless about four times greater than broadband.) For incumbent operators, cable is an ever-increasing threat creating greater incentive to invest.
- In North America and developed Asia–Pacific, the environment is different. Fixed investment among integrated plays was a low priority until recently. In the USA, Google
Fiber is causing AT&T and Tier 2 incumbents to invest in fixed access. In developed Asia–Pacific, FTTB and FTTH coverage is already high, and future investment may be
limited to upgrades from FTTB to FTTH and from earlier lower-capacity PONs to next-generation PONs.
- Investment in fixed infrastructure has tended to be a low priority in emerging markets. Some of the negative trends that affect mobile in Europe are also emerging, and some operators see opportunities in developing fibre, particularly where new-build and a growing middle class improve the business case. Several high-profile roll-outs, such as the HSBB project in Malaysia, indicate that take-up can be very good.

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