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  5. > Italy Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Italy Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 82 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Italy's oil and gas sector will continue to suffer from a gradual depletion of its hydrocarbonreserves and the rapid downsizing of the country's ailing refining sector. While an active exploration sceneand a gradually improving regulatory environment are positive signs, we believe these improvements willtake some years to garner more substantial industry changes. This is particularly the case in the context oflow oil and gas prices over the coming years.

Key Forecasts

- Italy's exploration has benefited from an accelerated licensing and drilling approval process on licences,which is part of the Italian government's energy plan in 2013. The National Energy Strategy is nowstarting to bear fruit with several exploration and production permits approved since its implementation.Drilling activity has accelerated as a result. Most recently, Sound Energy was granted drilling permissionfor its Badile prospect - due to be drilled in 2016 - highlighting that interest in exploration remains inspite of the low oil price environment.

- The reintroduction by the 2016 Budget Law of the ban on exploration and production activity within 12nautical miles of the Italian coast will stem some of the interest for offshore exploration. The lack ofpolicy consistency also creates an uncertain regulatory environment for the industry. Nevertheless, theApril 2016 referendum on banning renewals of offshore licenses failed to reach the necessary turnout,meaning existing production sites offshore within 12 miles of the coast will continue to produce untilthey reach depletion. However, new drilling concessions are no longer being handed out.

- Italy's oil production is expected to receive a significant boost from the Tempa Rossa field, which is setto come online in late 2018. Nonetheless, this will not suffice to achieve the government's goal ofdoubling oil production by 2020. Rapidly declining reserves are expected to push oil output graduallylower in the post-2020 period.

- A deteriorating downstream sector in Italy, as elsewhere in Europe, has seen large refining capacity andrefined products production cuts over the past decade. Further cuts are to be expected, given continuedcapacity oversupply and weak demand growth.

Table Of Contents

Italy Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Italy 2014-2020) 7
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 16
Table: Upstream Projects 16
Upstream Production - Oil 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Oil Production (Italy 2014-2019) 20
Table: Oil Production (Italy 2020-2025) 20
Upstream Production - Gas 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Gas Production (Italy 2014-2019) 23
Table: Gas Production (Italy 2020-2025) 23
Refining 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Italy 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Italy 2020-2025) 27
Refined Fuels Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Italy 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Italy 2020-2025) 30
Gas Consumption 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Italy 2020-2025) 33
Trade - Oil 34
Crude Oil 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Italy 2014-2020) 36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Italy 2020-2025) 36
Refined Products 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Italy 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Italy 2020-2025) 38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Italy 2014-2019) 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Italy 2020-2025) 42
Industry Risk Reward Index 44
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 44
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 45
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 45
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 47
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 48
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 50
Italy - Risk/Reward Index 52
Upstream Index 52
Downstream Index 52
Market Overview 53
Italy Energy Market Overview 53
Regulatory Structure 53
Fiscal Regime 54
Table: Italy Oil And Gas Fiscal Regime 54
Licensing Regime 54
Table: Italy Licensing Regime 54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 56
Oil Refineries 56
Table: Refineries In Italy 56
Service Stations 57
Oil Storage Facilities 57
Oil Terminals/Ports 58
LNG Terminals 58
Table: Italy - LNG Terminals 60
Gas Storage Facilities 61
Gas Pipelines 61
Competitive Landscape 65
Competitive Landscape Summary 65
Regional Overview 67
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 67
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 67
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 68
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 69
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent 70
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 71
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 72
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 73
Glossary 75
Table: Glossary Of Terms 75
Methodology 77
Industry Forecast Methodology 77
Source 79
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 79
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 81
Table: Weighting 82

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