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  4. > Virtual Video Viewing 2014 – 2017: User Demand and Exhibition Transition

The report, Virtual Video Viewing 2014 – 2017: User Demand and Exhibition Transition, builds out multi-year forecasts, methodically plumbing exclusive databases spanning years 1999 – 2013 to plot a series of sine waves that reveal adoption trends and inform predictive analytics models. The period 2005 – 2013 includes the advent and ascendance of UGC’s virtual channel, and displays a combined CAGR of 51.8%.

Annual viewing includes professionally published and maintained destinations plus their syndication partners, as well as UGC hosting platforms and social environments, the latter generating the vast majority of choice-based viewing (84%), the former capturing the largest unique audience by far (a 2013 increase of 19.6% vs. 6%).
Viewing tallied across all destinations and outlets is expected to rise 14.1% in 2014, delivering well over 1.27 billion gigabytes of related media traffic and leads off a 2014 – 2017 demand CAGR of 9.5%.

While overall viewing growth is moderating in aggregate, indicative of a larger, diverse, maturing and synchronizing video marketplace, publisher libraries populated with multiple content categories are transforming, impelling stepped up monetization efforts.

Professionally managed television-centric video (including broadcast and cable networks examined from 1999 – 2013) shows a CAGR of 68.3%, and now leads all other categories, including news (49.9%), movies (48.3%) sports (46.7%), music (-22% CAGR 2009 – 2013), and entertainment/kids (61.5%).
Publishers and their brand partners have responded. Ad supported premium content monetized with in-stream video shows an insertion frequency of 1.12 avails per content play, driving a 41% increase in 2013/2014 inventory.

Even so, non-linear video spend is emergent. An hour-per-hour dollar analysis shows the virtual channel is undervalued compared to its linear counterpart by 44.1%.

Table Of Contents

Virtual Video Viewing 2014 - 2017: User Demand and Exhibition Transition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

Virtual Video Viewing to Increase at a Declining Annual Rate; 9.5% Combined Pro/Hosted Network CAGR Projected Through 2017 1
VIRTUAL VIDEO VIEWS 2005 - 2017: PROFESSIONAL, UGC AND SOCIAL DESTINATIONS 2
VIRTUAL VIDEO VIEWING SHARE BY HOSTING ENVIRONMENT: PRO VS. UGC/SOCIAL 2005 - 2017 3
VIRTUAL VIDEO VIEW GROWTH RATES: MULTI-YEAR SINE WAVE CONSUMPTION ANALYSIS 2006 - 2017 4 CAGR ANALYTICS: VIRTUAL VIDEO VIEWS 2005 - 2017 5

SECTION ONE 6

Desktop / Mobile / Tablet / Ott / Vod Virtual Video on Track to Deliver 683.7 Billion Choice-Based Views in 2014, Up 14.1% 6
Virtual Video Viewing Is Increasing at a Declining Annual Rate; 9.5% Combined Pro/Hosted Network CAGR Projected Through 2017 6
PRO and UGC/SOCIAL NETWORKING VIDEO VIEWS: GROWTH RATE COMPARISON 2005 - 2017 8
VIRTUAL VIDEO VIEWS: BANDWIDTH REQUIREMENTS and LENGTH OF VIEW ANALYSIS 2013 20
Professionally Produced, Syndicated and Distributed Video Views Forecast to Reach 112 Billion in 2014 21
PRO VIDEO VIEWS: 1999 - 2017 21
PRO VIDEO VIEW GROWTH RATES: 1999 - 2017 23
UGC/Social Digital Video Growth Projected at 15% in 2014 25
UGC/SOCIAL NETWORKING VIDEO VIEWS and GROWTH RATES: 2005 - 2017 25
FACEBOOK VIDEO VIEWS: 2013 28
Annual Unique Users to Pro Digital Video Destinations Outnumber UGC/Social Networking Counterparts 4.6 to 1 29
PRO DESTINATION SITE and UGC/SOCIAL NETWORKING VIDEO VIEWS PER UNIQUE USER PER MONTH COMPARISON: 2006 - 2013 30
TOTAL PRO VIDEO VIEWS PER UNIQUE USER PER SITE PER MONTH 35
Movie Sites and Services Exhibit the Highest Rate of Viewing Growth Per Unique User 38
UNIQUE VIEWS PER SITE PER MONTH: BY CONTENT CATEGORY: 2011 - 2013 38

SECTION TWO 40

15-Year Virtual Video Content Category Analysis: Pro Publishing Library
Depth and Breadth Deal a 52.2% CAGR 40
Television, News, Sports, Entertainment, Kids and Movie Content Capture Viewer Interest and Cumulative Share 40
Sports Video Led All Categories in Growth Over the Past 12-Months: 2012 - 2013 42
VIRTUAL VIDEO CATEGORY SHARE and GROWTH: 1999 - 2013 (PROFESSIONALLY BRANDED and DISTRIBUTED SEGMENT) 43
Music Video Published and Hosted on Professionally Managed Sites / Destinations Experienced a Negative CAGR Of -22% From 2009 - 2013 45
SUMMARY CATEGORY VIEW SHARE ANALYSIS: 2013 47
Television and Movie Views Net a Combined 27.3% Share 49
SUMMARY CATEGORY VIEW SHARE ANALYSIS: 2013 49
VIRTUAL MOVIE and TELEVISION COMBINED VIEWING SHARE: 1999 - 2013 50
Mobile/Non-Desktop Viewing Activity Impact All Virtual Video Content Categories 53
SUMMARY CATEGORY VIEW SHARE ANALYSIS: MOBILE 2013 53
YouTube has a Strong Presence Across Multiple Content Categories, Particularly Music 55
YOUTUBE VIEWS BY THEMED CATEGORY: 2005 - 2013 vs. PRO DESTINATION TRAFFIC 55
SUMMARY CATEGORY VIEW SHARE ANALYSIS UGV VS. PRO DESTINATION: 2013 57
Music Videos Continue to Top YouTube Channel Views 2005 - 2013 57
YOUTUBE VIEWS BY THEMED CATEGORY: 2005 - 2013 CUMULATIVE SHARE 58
Long-Form, Episodic Broadcast and Cable Digital Video 2013: a Viewing Share Leader 60
TELEVISION 62
News, Politics, Finance and Tech Views Rose Again to 19.7% in 2013, Following an Election Year Surge in 2012 77
NEWS/INFORMATION/WEATHER/POLITICS/FINANCE 79
Entertainment/Kids Digital Video Captured a 16.4% Cumulative Viewing Share in 2012 90
ENTERTAINMENT/KIDS 92
Music Video Viewing Volume Declines to 1% Cumulative Share on Destination and Directly Managed Sites in 2013 104
MUSIC 106
Sports Video Rises to a 15.9% Cumulative Share With 16.2 Billion Views 108
SPORTS 110
As Length of Views Increase, Movie/Film Cumulataive Share Decrease In 2013 to 7.2%; 67.5% on Connected Devices 116
MOVIES 118
Aggregation Platforms and Services Own a 20.7% Cumulative Share of Video Views in 2013 122
AGGREGATORS/PORTALS/NETWORKS/SYNDICATION PLATFORMS 124

SECTION THREE 126

UGC and Social Network Virtual Video Views Forecast at 571 Billion Views in 2014 126
UGC/SOCIAL NETWORKING VIDEO VIEWS and GROWTH RATES: 2005 - 2017 127
UGC/Social Network Unique Users and Views Per Unique User Per Month Increase By 40.5% in 2013 130
UGC/SOCIAL NETWORKING VIDEO VIEWS PER UNIQUE USER PER MONTH: 2006 - 2013 130
PRO DESTINATION SITE and UGC/SOCIAL NETWORKING VIDEO VIEWS PER UNIQUE USER PER MONTH COMPARISON: 2006 - 2013 134
YouTube Video Views Reach 462.2 Billion in 2013 136
YOUTUBE VIEWS BY THEMED CATEGORY: 2005 - 2013 CUMULATIVE SHARE 136
UGC/HOSTED NETWORK 2013 139

SECTION FOUR 145

VIRTUAL VIDEO VIEWS: PROFESSIONALLY PRODUCED and HOSTED PROGRAMMING BY MONTH 2013 145

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