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Brazil Mining Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 68 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Brazil's mining industry value will continue a multi-year decline in 2016. Nonetheless, robustiron ore production growth and a broader stabilisation of metals prices will support the country's miningindustry outlook over 2017-2020.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- Iron ore will be Brazil's mining industry's growth bright spot due to the sector's low production costs, anda strong output growth strategy from Brazilian mining giant Vale. We expect Brazil's share of global ironore production to increase from 14.4% in 2016 to 17.7% by 2020, with the sector's output reaching581mnt in 2020 from 454mnt in 2016.

- On June 13, the USD5.7bn civil lawsuit against Vale and BHP Billiton over the Samarco dam burst wasdropped. The joint-venture firm, Samarco Mineracao is reportedly looking to restructure USD1.6bn inloans and USD2.2bn in bonds, as operations at the mine will not resume during 2016.

- Investment, merger and acquisition activity will pick up in Brazil's mining sector as debt-laden firms seekto offload prime assets. Most notably, in April, Anglo American sold the niobium and phosphatebusiness in Brazil to Chinese firm China Molybdenum for USD1.5bn. On May 9, Yamana Goldannounced the USD52.0mn purchase of the Riacho dos Machados gold project from Carpathian Gold.

- Brazil's nickel production will contract in 2016, as the key producer Votorantim Metais suspendedoperations at the Niquelandia mine and Sao Miguel Paulista metal processor starting in February. Whilethe firm accounted for approximately 37% of Brazil's total nickel output in 2015, Votorantim will exhauststockpiles before seeing negative growth and may restart operations as prices stabilise over the comingquarters.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Mining Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Brazil Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2020) 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Bauxite: Consolidated Sector To See Muted Growth 10
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Brazil 2014-2020) 10
Risks To Outlook 12
Gold: New Projects To Attract Investors 13
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Brazil 2014-2020) 13
Structural Trends 14
Table: Brazil - Key Gold Projects 15
Iron Ore: Strong Growth Ahead 16
Table: Iron Ore Forecast (Brazil 2014-2020) 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Brazil - Major Iron Ore Projects 19
Nickel: Output To Decline In 2016 20
Table: Nickel Production (Brazil 2014-2020) 21
Tin: Minimal Growth Dependent On Pitinga Mine 23
Table: Tin Production (Brazil 2014-2020) 24
Indonesian Ban To Boost Brazilian Exports 26
Mining Risk/Reward Index 28
Brazil Risk/Reward Index 28
Rewards 28
Industry Rewards 28
Country Rewards 28
Risks 28
Industry Risks 28
Country Risks 29
Americas: Risk/Reward Index 29
Key Takeaways 29
Latest Revisions 30
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index 31
Regulatory Development 32
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 32
Commodities Forecast 36
Commodities Outlook 36
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 36
Competitive Landscape 37
Table: Brazil - Largest Listed Mining Companies Financial Data, 2015 38
Company Profile 39
Vale - Q3 2016 39
Company Overview 41
Company Strategy 42
Latest Results 44
Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 44
Global Company Strategy - Anglo American - Q3 2016 45
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 46
Latest Results 48
Company Strategy 49
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data 51
Global Company Strategy - Alcoa - Q3 2016 52
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 54
Company Background 54
Company Strategy 57
Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data 59
Regional Overview 60
Methodology 65
Industry Forecast Methodology 65
Sources 66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 68

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