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  5. > Opportunities in the Solar Market for Crystalline and Thin Film Solar Cells

Crystalline silicon is currently used in over 90% of PV cells. Despite the lower potential cost of emerging thin-film technologies (less material, higher theoretical efficiencies), crystalline silicon is expected to remain the dominant PV technology for at least the next 10 years due to its higher current average efficiency and its greater stability.

This report analyzes the market for both crystalline and thin film solar cells, equipment to make them, and polysilicon as a starting point. Marker shares of vendors in all these sectors are presented.

Table Of Contents

Opportunities in the Solar Market for Crystalline and Thin Film Solar Cells
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1 Introduction 1-1

Chapter 2 Solar Cell Technology 2-1

2.1 Introduction 2.1
2.2 Generations of development 2-2
2.2.1 First Generation 2-2
2.2.2 Second Generation 2-2
2.2.3 Third Generation 2-3
2.3 History 2-11
2.4 Theory of Operation 2-12
2.4.1 Simple explanation 2-12
2.4.2 Photogeneration of charge carriers 2-13
2.4.3 Charge carrier separation 2-14
2.4.4 The p-n junction 2-14
2.4.5 Connection to an external load 2-15
2.4.6 Equivalent circuit of a solar cell 2-15
2.5 Solar cell efficiency factors 2-16
2.5.1 Maximum-power point 2-16
2.5.2 Energy conversion efficiency 2-16
2.5.3 Fill factor 2-17
2.5.4 Quantum efficiency 2-17
2.5.5 Comparison of energy conversion efficiencies 2-17
2.5.5.1 Peak watt (or Watt peak) 2-18
2.5.5.2 Solar cells and energy payback 2-20
2.6 Light-absorbing materials 2-20
2.6.1 Bulk 2-21
2.6.1.1 Silicon 2-21
2.6.2 Thin films 2-22
2.6.2.1 CdTe 2-22
2.6.2.2 CIGS 2-23
2.6.2.3 CIS 2-24
2.6.2.4 Gallium arsenide (GaAs) multijunction 2-24
2.6.2.5 Light absorbing dyes 2-25
2.6.2.6 Organic/polymer solar cells 2-28
2.6.2.7 Silicon Thin Films 2-30
2.6.3 Nanocrystalline solar cells 2-33
2.7 Concentrating photovoltaics (CPV) 2-34
2.7.1 Introduction 2-34
2.7.2 Commercial reflectors 2-39
2.8 Overview of research on materials and devices 2-45
2.8.1 Silicon processing 2-46
2.8.2 Thin-film processing 2-49
2.8.3 Polymer processing 2-50
2.8.4 Nanoparticle processing 2-50
2.8.5 Transparent conductors 2-52

Chapter 3 Solar Cell Manufacturing 3-1

3.1 Introduction 3-1
3.2 How Solar Cells Are Made 3-1
3.2.1 Silicon Solar Cell 3-4
3.2.2 Etching And Texturing 3-9
3.2.3 Diffusion And Edge Isolation 3-9
3.2.4 Anti-Reflection Coating 3-10
3.2.5 Metallization 3-10

Chapter 4 Thin Film Technology 4-1

4.1 Introduction 4-1
4.2 Silicon Deposition Technologies 4-6
4.2.1 Amorphous Silicon Deposition 4-6
4.2.2 Microcrystalline Silicon Deposition 4-7
4.3 Compound Semiconductor Deposition Technologies 4-11
4.3.1 Introduction 4-11
4.3.2 CdTe - Cadmium Telluride 4-19
4.3.3 CIGS - Copper Indium Gallium Selenide 4-26
4.3.4 GaAs - Gallium Arsenide 4-34

Chapter 5 Solar Markets 5-1

5.1 Introduction 5-1
5.2 Key Growth Drivers 5-3
5.2.1 Government Incentives 5-3
5.2.2 Fossil Fuel Supply Constraints 5-4
5.2.3 Growing Awareness Of The Advantages Of Solar Power 5-4
5.2.4 Advances In Technologies 5-5
5.2.5 Large Market Among Underserved Populations 5-6
5.3 Challenges Facing The Solar Power Industry 5-7
5.4 Cost Of A Photovoltaic System 5-8
5.5 Operating Metrics Of A Photovoltaic System 5-13
5.6 Types Of PV System 5-14
5.6.1 Grid Connected Sector 5-14
5.6.2 Off-Grid Sector 5-16
5.6.3 Market Development 5-17
5.7 Market Analysis 5-18
5.7.1 Solar Cell Market 5-18
5.7.2 Polysilicon Solar Cell Market 5-34
5.7.3 Thin Film Solar Cell Market 5-44
5.7.3.1 Driving Forces 5-44
5.7.3.2 Competing Technologies 5-47
5.7.3.3 Third-Generation Technologies 5-53
5.7.4 Consummables For Thin Films 5-55
5.7.4.1 Indium 5-55
5.7.4.2 Gallium 5-59
5.7.4.3 Cadmium 5-62
5.7.4.4 Tellurium 5-65
5.7.5 Thin Film Solar Cell Equipment Market 5-67
5.7.6 Substrates 5-87
5.7.7 Manufacturing Costs 5-91
5.8 Disruptive Technologies 5-94

Appendix List of Equipment and Material Suppliers


LIST OF TABLES

3.1 Polysilicon Capacity Forecast 3-6
4.1 Thin Film CIGS Solar Cells Efficiencies 4-13
4.2 Polycrystalline Thin Film PV Modules 4-15
5.1 Cost Per Watt Forecasts For Thin Film Cells 5-9
5.2 Efficiency Ranges Of Solar Cells 5-20
5.3 Historic Solar Cell Consumption By Region 5-23
5.4 Solar Cell Producer Capacity 2008- Present 5-24
5.5 Solar Cell Forecast 2005-2015 5-30
5.6 Market Share Of Solar Cells By Technology 5-32
5.7 Polysilicon Production Capacities By Company 5-35
5.8 Solar Power And Polysilicon Consumption Forecast 5-39
5.9 Thin Film Solar Cell Producers 5-45
5.10 Cost Comparison Of Thin Film Technologies 5-52
5.11 Production Figures For Indium 5-58
5.12 Production Figures For Gallium 5-61
5.13 Production Figures For Cadmium 5-64
5.14 Production Figures For Tellurium 5-65
5.15 Affect of Substrate Material On CIGS Solar Efficiency 5-90
5.16 Cost of Ownership Report 5-92


LIST OF FIGURES

2.1 Light Absorption Through Layers In A Multijunction Cell 2-4
2.2 Triple Junction a-Si/a-SiGe/a-SiGe Cell Structure 2-6
2.3 A Two-Junction Amorphous-Silicon Solar Cell 2-7
2.4 Solar Cell Technology Roadmap 2-9
2.5 Best Research-Cell Efficiencies 2-19
2.6 Dye Sensitized Solar Cell Schematic 2-27
2.7 Bulk Heterojunction Solar Cell 2-29
2.8 Schematic Of Sliver Cell 2-48
3.1 Diagram Of Solar Cell 3-2
3.2 Cross Section Of A Solar Cell Under Illumination 3.3
3.3 Polysilicon Manufacturing And Supply Chain 3-8
4.1 Sharp's Triple-Junction Solar Cell 4-8
4.2 Factory Flow For 20 MW/Year CGS Facility 4-10
4.3 Schematic Of CdTe And CIGS Device Structures 4-16
4.4 CdTe Thin Film Deposition By VTD 4-22
4.5 CdTe Thin Film Deposition By Close Space Sublimation (CSS)
Schematic 4-23
4.6 CdTe Thin Film Deposition By VTD2 4-25
4.7 CIGS Deposition System By Evaporation 4-28
4.8 Cross-Sectional Schematic Diagram Of The
InGaP/InGaAs/Ge ATJ Cell 4-36
5.1 150kWp Commercial System Cost Per Watt 5-12
5.2 Best Research-Cell Efficiencies 5-21
5.3 Solar Cell Production By Region 5-27
5.4 Historic and Future Solar Cell Consumption By Region 5-28
5.5 Solar Cell Production By Type 5-31
5.6 Thin Film Solar Cell Production By Type 5-33
5.7 Polysilicon Capacity Market Share 2004 5-36
5.8 Polysilicon Capacity Market Share current 5-37
5.9 Polysilicon Consumption In Grams Per W And Production (MT) 5-40
5.10 Polysilicon Production And Consumption (MT) 5-42
5.11 Best Research-Thin Film Cell Efficiencies 5-48
5.12 Schematic Diagrams Of Thin-Film CdTe, CIGS, and a-Si
Thin Film PV Devices 5-49
5-13 Thin Film Solar Cell Power As A Percentage Of Total Solar
Power 5-54
5.14 Schematic Thin-Film Roll-To-Roll Equipment 5-68
5.15 Market Forecast for Solar Cell Production Equipment 5-85
5.16 Market Shares for Solar Cell Production Equipment 5-86

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