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  4. > The Solid State Lighting Revolution: Market Analysis and Insight On Reducing Manufacturing Costs

Light-emitting diodes (LEDs) are on the verge of revolutionizing the lighting market. As a general illumination lighting source, LED products surpass many conventional lighting technologies (including incandescent and fluorescent light sources) in energy efficiency, lifetime, and versatility and rival them in color and light quality. Having already significantly penetrated several colored light applications, such as traffic signals and exit signs, white-light LED products have recently been commercialized. LEDs can be found in directional lamp fittings such as downlights, display, accent, under-cabinet lighting, as well as in area light fittings such as parking, roadway, and troffer lighting applications.

This report analyzes the LED Backlight market for Notebook PCs, LCD TVs, Desktop Monitors, Large Others, and Small/Medium LEDs. In analyzes the markets for Lighting, Active Outdoor Displays, Signals, Automotive, Mobile, and others

Table Of Contents

The Solid State Lighting Revolution: Market Analysis and Insight On Reducing Manufacturing Costs
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1 Introduction 1-1

Chapter 2 Recent Progress in High Brightness LED
Technology and Applications 2-1

2.1 LED: Theory of Operation 2-1
2.2 Intellectual Property Map 2-5
2.3 LED Manufacturing Technologies and Costs 2-7
2.4 LED Market General Illumination 2-13

Chapter 3 Processing Equipment 3-1

3.1 Introduction 3-1
3.2 MOCVD for SSL - Productivity Challenges and Solutions 3-3
3.3 Low temperature Remote Plasma Chemical Vapor Deposition
(RPCVD) 3-13
3.3.1 RPCVD Process Advantages 3-13
3.4 Defect Inspection and Testing 3-15
3.5 Lithography 3-19
3.5.1 Steppers 3-19
3.5.2 Nanoimprint 3-20
3.5.3 Nanopatterning of LED Wafers 3-24

Chapter 4 Materials of Construction 4-1

4.1 Introduction 4-1
4.2 GaN-based LED for General Lighting 4-7
4.2.1 Methods to Improve White LED Efficiency 4-18
4.2.2 Time-to-Market for LED substrates 4-20
4.3 LED Phosphor Manufacturing Issues 4-21
4.3.1 Current LED Phosphor Manufacturing 4-21
4.3.2 LED Phosphor Cost 4-23

Chapter 5 Packaging and Assembly Issues for High Brightness
LEDs 5-1

5.1 Packaging for HB LEDs 5-1
5.1.1 Bonding 5-5
5.1.2 Die/Ball Bonding 5-9
5.1.3 Scribing 5-12
5.2 Wafer Level Packaging HB LEDs 5-15
5.3 Thermal Issues 5-21
5.4 Test and Inspection 5-24

Chapter 6 National Programs As Innovation Drivers 6-1

6.1 DOE Solid-State Lighting Manufacturing Initiative 6-1
6.2 DOE Solid-State Lighting Program Mission and Goal 6-1
6.3 Major National Research Programs Pertaining to LEDs 6-4
6.4 Challenges Facing SSL Manufacturing 6-9
6.4.1 Inconsistent Color 6-10
6.4.2 Low Light Output 6-11
6.4.3 Challenges Facing Market Introduction 6-12

Chapter 7 OLED Lighting 7-1

7.1 Opportunities for Luminaire Manufacturers 7-1
7.2 Critical Issues for Continued OLED Market Growth 7-5
7.3 Manufacturing Options and Equipment Needs 7-9
7.4 Availability of Critical Materials 7-12
7.5 OLED Lighting Costs 7-13

Chapter 8 OLED Manufacturing 8-1

8.1 Deposition Equipment and Processes for OLED Lighting 8-1
8.2 General OLED Manufacturing Cost Considerations 8-10
8.3 Roll-to-Roll OLEDs 8-12
8.4 Lithography 8-22
8.5 Substrates and Encapsulation 8-23
8.5.1 Substrate and Encapsulation Material Selection 8-24
8.5.2 Substrate Coatings 8-25
8.5.3 Transparent Electrodes 8-26
8.5.4 Encapsulation 8-28
8.6 Inspection and Quality Control 8-30

Chapter 9 Outlook for the Worldwide OLED Market 9-1

9.1 Introduction 9-1
9.2 Passive Matrix Capacity and Demand 9-6
9.3 Active Matrix Capacity and Demand 9-9
9.4 Cost Challenges for OLED Lighting 9-11

Chapter 10 Outlook for the Worldwide High-Brightness LED
Market 10-1

10.1 HB LED Technology 10-1
10.2 HB LED Market Overview and trends 10-4
10.2.1 Market Drivers for SSL 10-7
10.2.2 LED Backlights for Notebook PCs 10-8
10.2.3 LED Backlights for LCD TVs 10-10
10.2.4 LED Backlights for Other Applications 10-12
10.2.5 LED Lighting Market 10-14
10.2.6 LED Active Outdoor Display Market 10-16
10.2.7 LED Signal Market 10-18
10.2.8 LED Automotive Market 10-20
10.2.9 LED Mobile Market 10-22


LIST OF TABLES

2.1 Color, Wavelength Material Of LED 2-3
2.2 Light Source Comparison 2-17
2.3 Comparison of LED, HB-LED, UHB-LED Characteristics 2-19
3.1 Epitaxy Metrics from Initial Solid-State Lighting
Manufacturing RandD Roadmap 3-5
3.2 Process Control Metrics 3-16
4.1 Production Method for Various LEDs 4-3
4.2 LED Cost Model: Impact of Substrate Choice 4-14
4.3 Comparison of $/klm for LED Made on Various 2" Substrates 4-15
5.1 Properties Of Die Bonding Processes 5-6
7.1 Comparison Of Lighting Technologies 7-2
7.2 OLED Displays vs OLED lighting 7-3
8.1 Manufacturing Roadmap for Sheet Processing of OLED
Lighting Panels 8-16
8.2 Manufacturing Roadmap for Web Processing of OLED
Lighting Panels 8-17
8.3 Projected Costs of OLED Lighting Panels (Sheet Processed)
Stage 8-19
8.4 Projected Costs of OLED Lighting Panels (Web Processed)
Stage 8-20
10.1 Forecast Of LED Backlights For Notebook PCs 10-9
10.2 Forecast Of LED Backlights For LCD TVs 10-11
10.3 Forecast Of LED Backlights For Other Application 10-13
10.4 Forecast Of LED Lighting Market 10-15
10.5 Forecast Of LED Active Outdoor Display Market 10-17
10.6 Forecast Of LED Signal Market 10-19
10.7 Forecast Of LED Automotive Market 10-21
10.8 Forecast Of LED Mobile Market 10-23
10.9 Revenues of Top LED Vendors 10-26


LIST OF FIGURES

2.1 Operation of LED 2-2
2.2 Key Intellectual Property Relationships 2-6
2.3 DOE Roadmap 2-8
2.4 Relative Manufacturing Costs 2-10
2.5 Pareto Analysis Of SSL Manufacturing Costs 2-12
2.6 Market drivers for LED Biz and Applications 2-14
2.7 SSL vs. Classical Technologies 2-15
2.8 LED Performance vs. Traditional Light Sources 2-16
2.9 Energy Production and Use Comparison 2-18
2.10 White-LEDs for General Lighting Market estimates in $B to
2020 2-20
2.11 Wafer Needs for General Lighting (2” wafer equivalents, million
units to 2020) 2-21
3.1 SSL - LED manufacturing with MOCVD: productivity
and Cost Analysis 3-6
3.2 Larger Wafer Size: GaN LEDs 3-7
3.3 Global Shipments Of MOCVD Tools By Vendor 3-10
3.4 Global Shipments Of MOCVD Tools By Region 3-11
3.5 Diagram of RPCVD Reactor 3-13
3.6 Comparison between MOCVD and RPCVD 3-14
3.7 Nanoimprint Lithography System 3-21
3.8 The Phlatlight Chip 3-25
4.1 Regular LED (white) Front-End Steps 4-5
4.2 Current Blocking Layer 4-6
4.3 Regular LED (white) Production Costs for 100k wafers/year 4-12
4.4 HB LED (white) Production Costs for 100k wafers/year 4-13
4.5 Main Manufacturing Steps for GaN-based LED 4-16
4.6 Regular LED (white) Back-End 4-17
4.7 Methods to Improve White LED Efficiency 4-19
4.8 Phosphor Coating - Four Approaches 4-24
5.1 Hybrid Integration Approach to HD-LED Package 5-3
5.2 Chain Wire Bond 5-11
5.3 HB-LED with Silicon Carrier Submount 5-17
5.4 Silicon interposer for MEMS / LED Applications 5-18
5.5 High Brightness LED 5-19
5.6 SMD Package Cost Structure 5-20
5.7 Packaging Changes Result in Optical Improvements 5-22
5.8 Substrate Solutions for HB/HP LEDs 5-23
6.1 DOE Solid-State Lighting Program Strategy 6-2
6.2 DOE Efficacy Targets 6-3
6.3 Congressional Appropriations 6-6
6.4 SSL RandD Project Funding 6-7
6.5 Price Targets 6-8
7.1 Status of Technology Towards Lighting Targets 7-7
7.2 Maximizing Internal Quantum Efficiency 7-8
7.3 Manufacturing Options 7-10
7.4 Kodak VIST Deposition Source 7-11
7.5 OLED Lighting Costs - VTE process 7-14
7.6 OLED Lighting Costs: Glass Substrate 7-15
8.1 Steps of OLED Production 8-3
8.2 Industrial Coater Design Approaches 8-4
8.3 Comparison Cluster vs. In-Line - Gen 2 8-5
8.4 Comparison Cluster vs. In-Line - Gen 4/5 8-6
8.5 Process Flow for OLED stack 8-8
8.6 Comparison of Deposition Sources 8-9
8.7 Roll-to-Roll OLED Fabrication 8-15
9.1 Schematic of PMOLED 9-2
9.2 PMOLED Stack/Driving Architecture 9-3
9.3 Schematic of AMOLED 9-5
9.4 Passive Matrix OLED Capacity and Demand Forecast 9-8
9.5 Active Matrix OLED Capacity and Demand Forecast 9-10
10.1 LED Market by Sector 10-24
10.2 Worldwide LED Market Forecast 2009-2015 10-25

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