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  4. > Rare Earths Elements in High-Tech Industries: Market Analysis and Forecasts amid China’s Trade Embargo

At the time of the alleged 2010 embargo, Chinese firms accounted for 97 percent of rare-earth oxide production and a large fraction of the processing business that turns these into rare earth metals, alloys, and products like magnets. This near-monopoly was in a market with surging demand and intense political resonance in consuming countries. And the most dependent countries—primarily Japan and the United States, but also several European states—happened to be those over which China most wanted influence. Prices soared in the REE spot market in the wake of China’s 2010 export cuts, especially as downstream users—companies that incorporate REEs into other products—filled inventories to protect themselves from future disruptions.

Downstream markets are already adjusting to the changing supply picture through normal market mechanisms. This report presents a forecast of REE for a variety of technologies: semiconductors, HDDs, FPDs, mobile devices, LEDs, and alternative energy.

Table Of Contents

Rare Earths Elements in High-Tech Industries: Market Analysis and Forecasts amid China’s Trade Embargo
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1 Introduction 1-1

1.1 Rare Earth Element Characteristics 1-1
1.2 Rare Earth Element Resources 1-4
1.3 Overview of Rare Earth Element Applications 1-9

Chapter 2. Rare Earth Industry 2-1

2.1 China' Rare Earth Industry 2-1
2.1.1 China's Production 2-1
2.1.2 China Rare Earth Production Structure 2-5
2.1.3 China Rare Earth Consumption Structure 2-5
2.1.4 China Export of Rare Earths 2-11
2.1.5 Recent Activities Of China's Rare Earth Industry 2-17
2.1.5.1 Consolidation Of China's Rare Earth Industry 2-17
2.2 Rest Of World's Rare Earth Industry 2-22
2.2.1 UNITED STATES 2-26
2.2.1.1 Mountain Pass 2-26
2.2.1.2 Utah Rare Earth Project 2-29
2.2.1.3 Bear Lodge Rare-Earth Project 2-32
2.2.1.4 Elk Creek 2-35
2.2.1.5 Bokan-Dotson Ridge 2-37
2.2.1.6 Diamond Creek 2-38
2.2.1.7 Lemhi Pass 2-40
2.2.2 CANADA 2-42
2.2.2.1 MacLeod Lake Project 2-42
2.2.2.2 Hoidas Lake 2-42
2.2.2.3 Benjamin River Project 2-43
2.2.2.4 Douglas River Project 2-45
2.2.2.5 Nechalacho Rare Earth Element Project 2-47
2.2.2.6 Archie Lake 2-53
2.2.2.7 Bulstrode Rare Earth Property 2-54
2.2.2.8 Mount Copeland 2-55
2.2.2.9 Cross Hills Newfoundland 2-56
2.2.2.10 Kipawa 2-57
2.2.2.11 Strange Lake 2-58
2.2.2.12 Ytterby 2-59
2.2.2.13 Grevet REE 2-60
2.2.2.14 Turner Falls 2-62
2.2.3 SOUTH AFRICA 2-63
2.2.3.1 Steenkampskraal Mine South Africa 2-63
2.2.4 AUSTRALIA 2-66
2.2.4.1 Nolans Bore 2-66
2.2.4.2 Mount Weld 2-69
2.2.4.3 Jungle Well/ Laverton 2-71
2.2.5 GREENLAND 2-71
2.2.5.1 Kvanefjeld Project 2-71
2.2.6 ARGENTINA 2-74
2.2.6.1 Cueva del Chacho 2-74
2.2.6.2 Susques Property - Jujuy Province 2-76
2.2.6.3 John Galt Project 2-77
2.2.7 INDIA 2-78
2.2.7.1 Indian Rare Earth 2-78
2.2.8 RUSSIA 2-79
2.2.8.1 Kutessay II 2-79
2.3 Profiles of Mining Corporations 2-81

Chapter 3 Rare Earth Market Analysis 3-1

3.1 Overview 3-1
3.2 Rare Earth Market 3-4
3.2.1 Domestic Production and Consumption 3-4
3.2.2 China Production and Consumption 3-10
3.3 Global Rare Earth Market Analysis 3-15
Chapter 4 Impact on Hi-Tech Applications 4-1

4.1 Semiconductors 4-1
4.1.1 Technology Impacted 4-1
4.1.1.1 High-k Dielectrics 4-1
4.1.1.2 Polishing Powders 4-9
4.1.2 Rare Earth Material Used 4-12
4.1.3 Market Forecast of Impacted Semiconductor
Devices/Materials 4-12
4.2 Hard Disk Drives (HDDs) 4-14
4.2.1 Technology Impacted 4-14
4.2.1.1 Neo Magnets for HDDs 4-16
4.2.1.2 High Strength Glass Substrates 4-19
4.2.1.3 Polishing Materials 4-19
4.2.2 Rare Earth Material Used 4-20
4.2.3 Market Forecast of Impacted HDD
Devices/Materials 4-22
4.3 Displays - FPD/CRT 4-27
4.3.1 Technology Impacted 4-27
4.3.1.1 Polishing Materials 4-27
4.3.1.2 Phosphors 4-29
4.3.2 Rare Earth Material Used 4-33
4.3.3 Market Forecast of Impacted CRT/FPD
Devices/Materials 4-34
4.4 Mobile and Mobile Internet Devices 4-39
4.4.1 Technology Impacted 4-39
4.4.2 Rare Earth Material Used 4-39
4.4.3 Market Forecast of Impacted Mobile
Devices/Materials 4-40
4.5 Solid State Lighting - LED/CFL 4-43
4.5.1 Technology Impacted 4-43
4.5.1.1 Phosphors for Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) 4-43
4.5.1.2 Phosphors for Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL) 4-49
4.5.2 Rare Earth Material Used 4-52
4.5.3 Market Forecast of Impacted LED
Devices/Materials 4-53
4.6 Green Technology 4-56
4.6.1 Technology Impacted 4-56
4.6.1.1 Rare Earths for Hybrid Vehicle Batteries (NiMH) 4-56
4.6.1.2 Neo Magnets for Hybrid Vehicle Electric Motors
and Brakes 4-59
4.6.1.3 Neo Magnets for Wind Turbines 4-61
4.6.1.4 Catalytic Converter for Automobiles 4-65
4.6.2 Rare Earth Material Used 4-67
4.6.3 Market Forecast of Impacted Green
Devices/Materials 4-70
4.6.4 Other Green Technologies 4-76

Chapter 5. U.S Strategic Metal Perspective 5-1

5.1 The Application of Rare Earth Metals in National Defense 5-1
5.2 Rare Earth Resources and Production Potential 5-3
5.3 Supply Chain Issues 5-6
5.4 Rare Earth Legislation in the 111th Congress 5-10
5.4.1 H.R. 6160, Rare Earths And Critical Materials
Revitalization Act Of 2010 5-10
5.4.2 H.R. 4866, the Rare Earths Transformation Act of 2010 5-11
5.4.3 S. 3521, Rare Earths Supply Technology
and Resources Transformation Act of 2010 5-13
5.4.4 H.R. 5136, the Fiscal Year 2011 National Defense
Authorization Act 5-13
5.4.5 P.L. 111-84, the Fiscal Year 2010 National Defense
Authorization Act 5-14
5.5 Possible Policy Options 5-15
5.5.1 Authorize And Appropriate Funding For A USGS
Assessment 5-15
5.5.2 Support And Encourage Greater Exploration For REE 5-15
5.5.3 Challenge China On Its Export Policy 5-16
5.5.4 Establish A Stockpile 5-16

Chapter 6 European Strategic Metal Perspective 6-1

6.1 Assessing Criticality 6-1
6.1.1 Geological And Technical Availability 6-1
6.1.2 Key Terms And Definitions 6-2
6.1.3 Geological Availability 6-3
6.1.4 Technological Development 6-5
6.1.5 Geopolitical-Economic Availability 6-6
6.2 Results And List Of Critical Raw Materials 6-7
6.2.1 Economic Importance And Supply Risks 6-7
6.2.2 Future Perspectives On Raw Material Demand -
Implications Of Technological Change. 6-11
6.2.3 Emerging technologies and raw materials 6-12

Chapter 7 Rebuilding a U.S. Supply Chain

7.1 Non-Chinese Sources of New Rare Earths 7-1
7.2 Impact of Price Hikes by Application 7-13


TABLES

1.1 Selected Rare Earth Element Bearing Products 1-11
1.2 Rare Earths Elements And Some Of Their End Uses 1-13
2.1 Rare Earth Prices 2-16
2.2 Global Capacity Of Rare Earth Oxides - 2010 2-24
2.3 Global Capacity Of Rare Earth Oxides - 2014 2-25
3.1 U.S. Rare Earth Statistics 3-5
3.2 Rare Earth Prices 3-9
3.3 Rare Earth Elements: World Production And Reserves 3-12
3.4 Rare Earth Oxide Capacity 3-16
3.5 Rare Earth Oxide Capacity 3-17
3.6 Rare Earth Oxide Demand-Supply 3-18
3.7 Rare Earth Composition By End Use 3-26
4.1 Properties Of Rare Earth Ln2O3 Oxides 4-4
4.2 Forecast of CMP Slurry 4-13
4.3 Demand of Rare Earths for Neo Magnets 4-21
4.4 Market Forecast for Hard Disk Drives by Size 4-23
4.5 Market Forecast For Ceria Slurry For Glass Disks 4-26
4.6 Demand of Rare Earths for Polishing Compounts for FPD/CRT 4-36
4.7 Demand of Rare Earths for Phosphors for FPD/CRT 4-37
4.8 Market Forecast of FPD/CRT by Type 4-38
4.9 Market Forecast of Mobile/MID by Type 4-41
4.10 Demand of Rare Earths for Phosphors for CFLs 4-54
4.11 Market forecast of Backlight LEDs by Application 4-55
4.12 Demand of Rare Earths for NiMH Batteries 4-71
4.13 Demand of Rare Earths for Neo Magnets 4-72
4.14 Demand for Rare Earths for Automobile Catalysts 4-73
5.1 Rare Earth Elements: World Production And Reserves 5-5
6.1 Rare Earth Applications 6-9
6.2 Global Metal Production 6-10


FIGURES

1.1 Periodic Table Of Rare Earth Elements 1-2
1.2 Abundance Of The Rare Earth Elements 1-5
1.3 Rare Earth Production Since 1950 1-8
1.4 China's Rare Earth Dominance 1-10
2.1 Rare Earth Proportion And Distribution In China 2-3
2.2 Production Of Rare Earth Concentrates Since 1998 2-6
2.3 Production Of Smelting Separation Products Since 1999 2-7
2.4 Production Of Rare Earth Metals Since 1988 2-8
2.5 Production Of Rare Earth Oxides Since 1998 2-9
2.6 Consumption Of Rare Earths Since 1990 2-10
2.7 Consumption Structure Of China From 1988 2-12
2.8 Gross Volume Of Exports From 1979 2-13
2.9 Gross Value Of Exports From 1979 2-14
3.1 U.S. Distribution Of Refined Rare Earth Products 3-6
3.2 Rare-Earth Price Index 3-8
3.3 Comparison Of Rare Earth Consumption .Between
China And The World 3-14
3.4 Global Supply-Demand Forecast 3-19
3.5 ROW Supply-Demand Forecast 3-20
3.6 REO Distribution By Weight - 2010 3-21
3.7 REO Distribution By Revenue - 2010 3-22
3.8 REO Distribution By Weight - 2014 3-24
3.9 REO Distribution By Revenue - 2014 3-25
3.10 REE Composition By End Use 3-27
3.11 Approximate Percentage Content Of Current And
Prospective Ores 3-28
4.1 Illustration of MOSFET and Gate Oxide 4-2
4.2 STI CMP Using Ceria 4-10
4.3 HDD Drive and Neo Magnets 4-17
4.4 Glass Media Drive Forecast 4-24
4.5 Market Forecast For Neo Magnets 4-25
4.6 Illustration of Phosphors in PDPs 4-31
4.7 Market Forecast For Neo Magnets 4-42
4.8 Traditional Design of a 5-mm white LED 4-45
4.9 Scattered Photon Extraction white LED 4-46
4.10 Supply Chain for Fluorescent Lighting 4-51
4.11 Rare Earths Used in Hybrid Vehicles 4-57
4.12 Hybrid Vehicle Battery (NiMH) 4-58
4.13 Hybrid Vehicle Electric Motor and Brakes 4-60
4.14 Wind Turbine Motor 4-62
4.15 Supply Chain for Permanent Magnets 4-64
4.16 Catalytic Converter for Automobiles 4-66
4.17 Forecast of Hybrid Vehicles 4-74
4.18 Forecast of Wind Generators 4-75
6.1 Supply Of Strategic Metals To The European Union 6-4

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