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Guinea Telecommunications Report 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 49 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Guinean mobile market has consistently displayed massive growth over the past decade,posting annual growth rates in double digits when looking at new subscriber numbers. Nevertheless, wehold a cautiously optimistic outlook for the future. We do believe that the market will continue to add moresubscribers each year but the growth rates will begin to taper off. We believe that political instability and avery high degree of national poverty will subdue market prospects going forward. MTN and Orange areexpanding their 3G networks, but BMI believes that that the uptake of 3G services too will be held back bythe weak macroeconomic environment as annual GDP per capita is only forecast at USD569 for 2016.

Key Data

- Mobile subscriptions will slow over 2016-2020 as operators seek growth in rural areas, which are costlyto reach and offer slower returns on growth. Subscriptions for 3G will account for just around 29.9% ofthe market by the end of 2020. We estimate only 2.2mn 3G subscribers by end of 2016, a number we seetopping under 4.35mn by end of 2020, around 33.4% of the market.

- Latest data reveal that the market added a significant 1.009mn new subscribers in 2015 but this wassignificantly lower than the 2.23mn added in 2014. We are forecasting a total of 11.35mn subscribers byend of 2016, a number we see jumping to over 13mn by end of 2020.Broadband connections will be driven by developments in the 3G segment, with few consumers looking forfixed connections. Penetration will remain below 2%.

Table Of Contents

Guinea Telecommunications Report 2016
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT 7
Mobile 7
Industry Forecast 9
Mobile 9
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Guinea 2013-2020) 13
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 14
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 14
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index, Q3 2016 17
Guinea 19
Market Overview 20
Mobile 20
Market Drivers and Trends 20
Regulatory Development 29
Company Profile 30
France Telecom 30
MTN 34
Demographic Forecast 38
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Guinea 1990-2025) 39
Table: Key Population Ratios (Guinea 1990-2025) 39
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Guinea 1990-2025) 40
Table: Population By Age Group (Guinea 1990-2025) 40
Table: Population By Age Group % (Guinea 1990-2025) 41
Glossary 43
Table: Glossary Of Terms 43
Methodology 45
Industry Forecast Methodology 45
Sources 47
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 47
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 48
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 49

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