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Slovakia Power Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 55 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The medium term outlook for Slovakia's power sector is quite encouraging. With two newnuclear reactors set to come on stream in the next couple of years, our core scenario envisages that therewill be a near 30% increase in total generating capacity by the end of 2018, relative to our core forecast forthe end of 2016. After that, generation is likely to plateau, given the absence of any significant new projectsin the pipeline, a possible modernisation of the Vojany thermal station aside. Consumption will remainsubdued, at a maximum growth rate of 1.0% per annum. On a two-year view, there are downside risks toour generation forecasts. Slovakia's economy ministry revealed in May 2016 that a further hike in costs forthe Mochovce project - to above even the previously revised figure of EUR4.6bn - was in the pipeline. Theannouncement came after a meeting between the economy ministry and SE. Meanwhile, a spokesperson forEnel told the Reuters newswire that a team was undertaking a fresh cost analysis of the project. Theseadditional uncertainties - particularly, whether Slovakia's government would have the appetite (or even thecapacity) to absorb a further hike in costs - provide significant downside risks to our core forecast thatMochovce will be fully online in 2018.Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Investments in nuclear power mean we expect this sector to drive overall growth in the Slovak powerindustry, with nuclear power generation forecast to increase from 14.0TWh in 2015 to 21.1TWh in 2025,while total generation will increase from 25.0TWh to 32.6TWh.

- Slovenské Elektrárne's (SE) work on the Mochovce Nuclear Power Plant is on course to result in reactor3 coming onstream in Q416 or Q117 while reactor 4 should be complete a year later. Total powergeneration in Slovakia is therefore expected to increase substantially over the next couple of years, to32.1TWh in 2018 (a rise of 29% over two years).

- Consumption should accelerate from 2016 onwards, though annual growth will remain below 2%, which,combined with the improving generating capacity, will ameliorate the overall shortfall.

Table Of Contents

Slovakia Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Slovakia 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Slovakia Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Slovakia 2015-2020) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Slovakia 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Slovakia Power Forecast Scenario 11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2014-2019) 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2020-2025) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2014-2019) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2020-2025) 19
Electricity Consumption 19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2014-2019) 19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2020-2025) 20
Transmission and Distribution, Imports And Exports 21
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2014-2019) 21
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2020-2025) 21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2014-2019) 21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2020-2025) 21
Industry Risk/Reward Index 23
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 23
Table: CEE Risk/Reward Index 29
Slovakia Power Risk/Reward Index 30
Rewards 30
Market Overview 32
Key Policies And Market Structure 32
Regulation And Competition 32
Slovakia Power Projects Database 34
Table: Slovakia - Power Projects 34
Competitive Landscape 35
SE 36
SPP 36
ZSE 37
SSE 37
VSE 37
SEPS 37
CEZ 38
Company Profile 39
Slovak Electric 39
Regional Overview 42
CEE Power Regional Overview 42
Glossary 49
Table: Glossary Of Terms 49
Methodology 50
Methodology And Sources 50
Industry Forecast Methodology 50
Sources 53
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 53
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 54
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 55

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