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Executive Analysis of the Global Rail Industry 2014

  • July 2014
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 103 pages

Operators Push Towards Profitability by Boosting Rolling Stock Sales and Vehicle Retirement Rates
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The Strategic Insight provides an outlook of growth opportunities in the global rail market. It discusses key trends, market drivers, opportunities, regional influences, and market dynamics. It also provides market sizes for infrastructure and rolling stock on a global scale. Market forecasts by region (Africa, Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, Latin America, Middle East, and North America) are provided for ridership; freight traffic; network length; rail electrification; and installed bases for locomotives, passenger coaches, multiple units, and wagons. The study period is from 2012 to 2020; the base year is 2013. Strategic conclusions have also been provided.

Executive Summary—Key Findings
1 Overall growth in the rail sector is bottlenecked by factors such as low funding, low volumes, and political instability.
2 About% of the installed base of locomotives is likely to be liquid natural gas (LNG) capable by 2018. By 2020, the United States is expected to start exporting LNG globally, which will reduce the price of LNG in markets such as Europe. As LNG prices drop, more railroad operators will start looking at LNG as an alternative fuel for their locomotives.
3 Mainline network growth is expected to be pronounced in Africa as foreign investment in rail continues well beyond 2020. A new line from Swaziland to South Africa is expected to be completed by 2017. Swaziland is expected to have the highest railway growth among African nations by 2020. Profits for Swaziland railways grew% from 2012 to 2013.
4 Train operators are starting to use Internet protocol (IP) architecture for onboard Internet access, operation, and safety services. This provides an opportunity for new-generation multimedia applications developed in IP environments to build a common base.
5 China, France, and Japan are the largest markets for high-speed rail services, contributing to almost% of all high-speed rail traffic in 2013. With orders of new high-speed rail rolling stock by DB for its Intercity-Express services, Germany is expected to be among the top market by 2020.

Market Definitions
Class I Railroad
US line-haul freight railroads with an operating revenue of $million or more in 2011
Electrification
Supply of electric energy to locomotives and railcars so they can operate without an engine
High-speed Rail (HSR)
A rail system that operates at speeds above km/h using specialized rolling stock, control systems, and tracks
Light Rail
An urban rail transportation system with a higher capacity than a tram system but lower performance characteristics (such as speed and capacity) than metro and heavy rail systems
Locomotive
A vehicle that provides the motive power for a train and has no payload capacity of its own
Metro
An urban rail transportation system separated from other forms of traffic that offers high capacities and frequencies
Powertrain
A set of components that generate power and deliver it to the rails through the wheels
Railcar/Multiple Unit
A self-propelled vehicle designed for the transportation of passengers; it can be used in multiples to form train sets
Railcar/Rolling Stock
A single unit/bogie/carriage, several of which make a train/train set
Train/Train Set
A complete electric/diesel multiple train made up of several rolling stock units

Table Of Contents

Executive Analysis of the Global Rail Industry 2014
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive Summary
Executive Summary—Key Findings
Executive Summary—Forecast Overview
Executive Summary—Overview of Global Rail Traffic
Executive Summary—Overview of Mainline Passenger Traffic
Executive Summary—Rail Network Used by Passenger Services
Executive Summary—Overview of Global Rail Electrification
Executive Summary—Rail Technology Roadmap
Executive Summary—Key Findings and Future Outlook

2. RESEARCH SCOPE, OBJECTIVES, BACKGROUND, AND METHODOLOGY

Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
Research Scope
Research Background

3. DEFINITIONS AND SEGMENTATION

Definitions and Segmentation
Rail Market Segmentation
Market Definitions

4. ROLLING STOCK MARKET POSITIONING

Rolling Stock Market Positioning
Market Positioning of High-speed Rail Rolling Stock
Market Positioning of Locomotives

5. GLOBAL HIGH-SPEED RAIL MARKET OVERVIEW

Global High-speed Rail Market Overview
Top High-speed Rail Operators
Largest High-speed Rail Markets
Population Distribution of High-speed Rail Track

6. GLOBAL RAIL MARKET OVERVIEW

Global Rail Market Overview
Rail Restructuring
Rail Restructuring Challenges
Emerging Rail Markets
Rail Networks by Region
Rolling Stock Installed Base

7. TECHNOLOGY TRENDS—ROLLING STOCK POWERTRAINS

Technology Trends—Rolling Stock Powertrains
Emission Norms
European Fuel Specifications
Emission Reduction Plan
LNG-compliant Engines
Energy Storage Technologies Comparison
Catenary Solutions
Power Storage Solutions
Market Impact of Powertrain Technologies

8. TECHNOLOGY TRENDS—CONNECTIVITY AND TELEMATICS IN RAIL

Technology Trends—Connectivity and Telematics in Rail
Communication Technologies For Rail Connectivity
Train Network Communication
Onboard Internet Value Chain
eTicketing System Architecture
NFC—Future of eTicketing and Communication
Market Impact of Top Connectivity Technologies

9. CONCLUSIONS

Conclusions
Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
The Last Word—Three Big Predictions
Legal Disclaimer

10. APPENDIX

Appendix
List of Abbreviations Used
Emission Directive 2004/26/EC
EPA Emission Standards for Locomotives in North America
Relevant Research
Market Engineering Methodology

11. GLOBAL MAINLINE RIDERSHIP FORECASTS

Global Mainline Ridership Forecasts
Ridership Forecasts—Africa
Ridership Forecasts—Asia-Pacific
Ridership Forecasts—Eastern Europe
Ridership Forecasts—Western Europe
Ridership Forecasts—Latin America, Middle East, North America

12. GLOBAL MAINLINE FREIGHT TRAFFIC FORECASTS

Global Mainline Freight Traffic Forecasts
Freight Traffic Forecasts—Africa
Freight Traffic Forecasts—Asia-Pacific
Freight Traffic Forecasts—Eastern Europe
Freight Traffic Forecasts—Western Europe
Freight Traffic Forecasts—Latin America, Middle East, North America

13. GLOBAL MAINLINE RAIL NETWORK FORECASTS

Global Mainline Rail Network Forecasts
Rail Network Forecasts—Africa
Rail Network Forecasts—Asia-Pacific
Rail Network Forecasts—Eastern Europe
Rail Network Forecasts—Western Europe
Rail Network Forecasts—Latin America, Middle East, North America

14. GLOBAL RAIL ELECTRIFICATION FORECASTS

Global Rail Electrification Forecasts
Electrification Forecasts—Africa and Asia-Pacific
Electrification Forecasts—Eastern Europe
Electrification Forecasts—Western Europe
Electrification Forecasts—Latin America, Middle East, North America

15. LOCOMOTIVE INSTALLED BASE FORECASTS

Locomotive Installed Base Forecasts
Locomotive Installed Base Forecasts—Africa
Locomotive Installed Base Forecasts—Asia-Pacific
Locomotive Installed Base Forecasts—Eastern Europe
Locomotive Installed Base Forecasts—Western Europe
Locomotive Installed Base Forecasts—Latin America, Middle East, North America

16. PASSENGER COACH INSTALLED BASE FORECASTS

Passenger Coach Installed Base Forecasts
Passenger Coach Installed Base Forecasts—Africa
Passenger Coach Installed Base Forecasts—Asia-Pacific
Passenger Coach Installed Base Forecasts—Eastern Europe
Passenger Coach Installed Base Forecasts—Western Europe
Passenger Coach Installed Base Forecasts—Latin America, Middle East, North America

17. MULTIPLE UNIT INSTALLED BASE FORECASTS

Multiple Unit Installed Base Forecasts
Multiple Unit Installed Base Forecasts—Africa and Asia-Pacific
Multiple Unit Installed Base Forecasts—Eastern Europe
Multiple Unit Installed Base Forecasts—Western Europe
Multiple Unit Installed Base Forecasts—Latin America, Middle East, North America

18. FREIGHT WAGON INSTALLED BASE FORECASTS

Freight Wagon Installed Base Forecasts
Freight Wagon Installed Base Forecasts—Africa
Freight Wagon Installed Base Forecasts—Asia-Pacific
Freight Wagon Installed Base Forecasts—Eastern Europe
Freight Wagon Installed Base Forecasts—Western Europe
Freight Wagon Installed Base Forecasts—Latin America, Middle East, North America

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