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Revenue in the Western European telecoms market will continue to contract as competitive pressures outweigh the trends towards better-quality products and data-rich bundles. This report examines the impact of these trends in 8 countries in Western Europe and the region as a whole.

Table Of Contents

The Western Europe telecoms market: concise trends and forecasts (8 countries) 2014-2019
Table of contents

7.Executive summary
8.Telecoms service revenue in Western Europe will continue to decline during 2014-2019
9.The drivers of decline will outweigh the drivers of growth
10.Losses in traditional services are the main contributors to the overall decline in telecoms retail revenue
11.Losses in mobile telecoms retail revenue will be heavier than losses in fixed telecoms retail revenue in most Western European countries
12.We have revised our forecast to reflect a stronger-than-expected decline in mobile voice revenue, and faster growth in handset data revenue
13.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile market
14.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the fixed market
15.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
16.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
17.Users in Western Europe will continue to migrate to fixed and mobile next-generation networks
18.The Western European telecoms market is showing signs of maturity
19.Core services are saturating in Western Europe, but we expect strong growth in mobile M2M and IPTV connections
20.Population penetration of handsets and mobile broadband SIMs is peaking in many Western European markets
21.The transition to LTE is underway, and most mobile connections will be 4G by 2018
22.The take-up of smartphones and LTE is a key driver in preventing further decline in mobile handset ARPU
23.The interplay of market forces and consumer ‘enrichment' will produce differing rates of decline in mobile ARPU
24.Fixed voice will decline and move from narrowband to VoBB, while fixed broadband connections rise strongly
25.Fixed broadband penetration will continue to grow but the most highly penetrated countries will begin to saturate
26.Revenue and ARPU in Western Europe will continue to decline, although recent heavy losses in mobile will not be sustained beyond 2015
27.Telecoms service revenue will decline, but the share of this revenue held by each major country will not change significantly
28.Mobile revenue will be squeezed a little harder than fixed in the forecast period
29.Individual country forecasts
30.France: The mobile market will begin to stabilise after a period of intense competition
31.France: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
32.France: Handset connections have scope for growth
33.France: The fixed broadband market will begin to saturate
34.Germany: Losses in fixed and mobile voice revenue contribute to an overall decline in telecoms revenue
35.Germany: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
36.Germany: Total handsets will peak in 2014 but smartphone take-up has considerable room for growth
37.Germany: Fixed broadband will grow more strongly with the advent of PSTN switch-off
38.Italy: Telecoms service revenue will decline because the economic outlook is uncertain and competition is intense
39.Italy: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
40.Italy: Mobile penetration (excluding M2M) will be nearly stable during the next few years, but the handset mix will improve
41.Italy: Fixed broadband ARPU will slightly increase as leading operators are investing to upgrade their networks to FTTC/VDSL
42.Spain: Revenue pressure will ease in the last part of the forecast period because economic recovery may reduce budget constraints
43.Spain: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
44.Spain: We forecast a slight recovery in the number of handsets and mobile broadband connections from 2015 afterwards
45.Spain: Fixed broadband population penetration will reach 29% by 2019, and FTTH/B will take the lead in 2018
46.UK: Telecoms revenue stopped growing in 2013 and will begin to decline
47.UK: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
48.UK: Handset penetration and ARPU are both set to decline
49.UK: Fixed broadband growth will eventually slow down, and regulatory measures will curb ASPU
50.About the authors and Analysys Mason
51.About the authors
52.About Analysys Mason
53.Research from Analysys Mason
54.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2009-2019
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Western Europe, 2013-2019
Figure 4: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2019) and market size by total retail revenue (2019), by country, Western Europe
Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Western Europe, 2013 and 2018
Figure 6: Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the mobile market, Western Europe
Figure 7: Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the fixed market, Western Europe
Figure 8: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA share of fixed broadband connections, by country, 2019
Figure 9: Metrics for the eight countries modelled individually in Western Europe, 2013
Figure 10: Fixed and mobile penetration rates by service type, Western Europe, 2009-2019
Figure 11: Connections by service type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2013-2019
Figure 12: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2009-2019
Figure 13: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Western Europe, 2009-2019
Figure 14: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2013 and 2019
Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2009-2019
Figure 16: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Western Europe, 2009-2019
Figure 17: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Western Europe, 2009-2019
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2009-2019
Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2013-2019
Figure 20: Service revenue by country, Western Europe, 2013
Figure 21: Service revenue by country, Western Europe, 2019
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), by country, Western Europe, 2013 and 2019
Figure 23: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), France, 2009-2019
Figure 24: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, France, 2013-2019
Figure 25: Connections by type, and growth rates, France, 2013-2019
Figure 26: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, France
Figure 27: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, France, 2009-2019
Figure 28: Handset ARPU by service, and mobile broadband and M2M ARPU, France, 2009-2019
Figure 29: Fixed penetration rates by service type/technology, France, 2009-2019
Figure 30: Fixed ASPU by service type, France, 2009-2019
Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Germany, 2009-2019
Figure 32: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Germany, 2013-2019
Figure 33: Connections by type, and growth rates, Germany, 2013-2019
Figure 34: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Germany
Figure 35: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Germany, 2009-2019
Figure 36: Handset ARPU by service, and mobile broadband and M2M ARPU, Germany, 2009-2019
Figure 37: Fixed penetration rates by service type/technology, Germany, 2009-2019
Figure 38: Fixed ASPU by service type, Germany, 2009-2019
Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Italy, 2009-2019
Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Italy, 2013-2019
Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Italy, 2013-2019
Figure 42: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Italy
Figure 43: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Italy, 2009-2019
Figure 44: Handset ARPU by service, and mobile broadband and M2M ARPU, Italy, 2009-2019
Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type/technology, Italy, 2009-2019
Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Italy, 2009-2019
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Spain, 2009-2019
Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Spain, 2013-2019
Figure 49: Connections by type, and growth rates, Spain, 2013-2019
Figure 50: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Spain
Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Spain, 2009-2019
Figure 52: Handset ARPU by service, and mobile broadband and M2M ARPU, Spain, 2009-2019
Figure 53: Fixed penetration rates by service type/technology, Spain, 2009-2019
Figure 54: Fixed ASPU by service type, Spain, 2009-2019
Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), UK, 2009-2019
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UK, 2013-2019
Figure 57: Connections by type, and growth rates, UK, 2013-2019
Figure 58: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, UK
Figure 59: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, UK, 2009-2019
Figure 60: Handset ARPU by service, and mobile broadband and M2M ARPU, UK, 2009-2019
Figure 61: Fixed penetration rates by service type/technology, UK, 2009-2019
Figure 62: Fixed ASPU by service type, UK, 2009-2019

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