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The telecoms market in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is transitioning from one dominated by mobile voice into one in which data services and customer retention through offerings such as mobile money are becoming more critical. This report presents Analysys Mason's core forecasts for the region, analyses the key trends and assesses their impact during the next 5 years.

Table Of Contents

The Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013-2018
Table of contents
8.Executive summary
9.Growing demand for mobile voice and data, and growing smartphone penetration offer significant opportunities in Sub-Saharan Africa
10.Handset data and mobile voice revenue will contribute 90% of SSA's retail revenue growth in 2013-2018, each growing by USD7.4 billion
11.South Africa is the largest telecoms market in SSA, accounting for 27% of the region's telecoms retail revenue in 2018
12.Forecast revision: Our SSA revenue forecast revisions reflect lower mobile voice revenue and higher demand for handset data services
13.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile market
14.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the fixed market
15.Key implications and recommendations
16.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
17.Geographical coverage: We model the seven largest markets, which will account for 62% of total SSA telecoms service revenue in 2018
18.Market context: The two most-populated countries - Nigeria and South Africa - generated 51% of the region's telecoms retail revenue in 2013
19.Fixed and mobile penetration: Mobile handset growth and fixed broadband growth will be solid in SSA, while fixed voice penetration will decline
20.Mobile penetration: SIM penetration growth will continue in the seven major markets as affordability and coverage increase
21.Mobile connections: 2G will remain the predominant technology in SSA, while LTE will account for only 3% of mobile connections in 2018
22.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will account for 26% of handsets in SSA by 2018, as device prices decline and users upgrade
23.Mobile ARPU: Decline will slow in most SSA markets, thanks to almost 10% annual growth in handset data ARPU
24.Fixed services: Africa's small fixed broadband market will increasingly lag behind the non-handset mobile broadband market
25.Fixed broadband: Household fixed broadband penetration in SSA varies significantly by country, and South Africa is well ahead of the others
26.Revenue and ARPU: Mobile voice and handset data will drive revenue growth through 2018, while mobile data will help maintain mobile ARPU
27.Service revenue: South Africa's share will decline slightly, reflecting the relative maturity of its market
28.Revenue mix: Mobile revenue will continue to dominate the revenue mix, and only South Africa will have a significant level of fixed revenue
29.Individual country forecasts
30.Ghana: Service revenue will reach GHS3.6 billion (USD1.9 billion) in 2018, driven by handset data, while traditional services remain flat
31.Ghana: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
32.Ghana - mobile: Fines imposed by the regulator for poor service quality are likely to drive increased operator investment
33.Ghana - fixed: The fixed market is well behind the mobile market, but fixed broadband growth will be steady, driven by BFWA
34.Kenya: Service revenue will reach KES205.4 billion (USD2.5 billon) in 2018, driven by handset and non-handset mobile broadband
35.Kenya: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
36.Kenya - mobile: Kenya is the leading country in Africa in terms of mobile money services, which have driven mobile data growth
37.Kenya - fixed: We forecast slow but steady growth in fixed broadband, driven by innovative alternative providers like Zuku
38.Nigeria: Service revenue will reach NGN2.1 trillion (USD13.1 billion) in 2018 because of handset data growth
39.Nigeria: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
40.Nigeria - mobile: Nigeria is the largest mobile market in SSA in terms of subscriber numbers, but not revenue
41.Nigeria - fixed: The fixed broadband market is underdeveloped because no operator has reached scale
42.South Africa: Telecoms service revenue will reach ZAR137.7 billion (USD16.9 billion) in 2018, driven by solid growth in handset data
43.South Africa: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
44.South Africa - mobile: South Africa has the highest smartphone penetration in SSA
45.South Africa - fixed: The planned national broadband plan and merger between Neotel and Vodacom will stimulate the market
46.Sudan: Telecoms revenue will reach SDG7.1 billion (USD2.1 billion), as mobile data grows but mobile voice remains predominant
47.Sudan: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
48.Sudan - mobile: Negative macroeconomic conditions in Sudan may threaten future growth of the mobile market
49.Sudan - fixed: The fixed broadband market lacks competition and Canar Telecom is planning to exit the market
50.Tanzania: Service revenue will reach TZS3.4 trillion (USD2.1 billion) in 2018, predominantly driven by mobile voice services
51.Tanzania: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
52.Tanzania - mobile: MTR cuts will put mobile ARPU under pressure; growth in handset data ARPU will offset the decline in voice ARPU
53.Tanzania - fixed: Government investment in a national broadband network is expected to stimulate growth of fixed broadband
54.Uganda: Mobile handset data and fixed broadband will drive service revenue to UGX3.8 trillion (USD1.6 billion) by 2018
55.Uganda: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
56.Uganda - mobile: Competition is set to intensify as operators consolidate
57.Uganda - fixed: Mobile services are preferable to fixed because they offer wider coverage at a lower cost
58.About the authors and Analysys Mason
59.About the authors
60.About Analysys Mason
61.Research from Analysys Mason
62.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 4: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013 and 2018
Figure 6: Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the mobile market, Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 7: Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the fixed market, Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 8: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, 2018
Figure 9: Metrics for Sub-Saharan Africa and the seven SSA countries modelled individually, 2013
Figure 10: Penetration rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 11: Connections by service type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 12: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M),
Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 13: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 14: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013 and 2018
Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 16: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 17: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country,
Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 20: Telecoms service revenue by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013
Figure 21: Telecoms service revenue by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013 and 2018
Figure 23: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Ghana, 2009-2018
Figure 24: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Ghana, 2013-2018
Figure 25: Connections by type, and growth rates, Ghana, 2013-2018
Figure 26: Summary of key forecast drivers and assumptions, Ghana
Figure 27: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Ghana, 2009-2018
Figure 28: ARPU rates by type, Ghana, 2009-2018
Figure 29: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Ghana, 2009-2018
Figure 30: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Ghana, 2009-2018
Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Kenya, 2009-2018
Figure 32: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Kenya, 2013-2018
Figure 33: Connections by type, and growth rates, Kenya, 2013-2018
Figure 34: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Kenya
Figure 35: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Kenya, 2009-2018
Figure 36: ARPU rates by type, Kenya, 2009-2018
Figure 37: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Kenya, 2009-2018
Figure 38: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Kenya, 2009-2018
Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Nigeria, 2009-2018
Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Nigeria, 2013-2018
Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Nigeria, 2013-2018
Figure 42: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Nigeria
Figure 43: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Nigeria, 2009-2018
Figure 44: ARPU rates by type, Nigeria, 2009-2018
Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Nigeria, 2009-2018
Figure 46: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Nigeria, 2009-2018
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), South Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, South Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 49: Connections by type, and growth rates, South Africa, 2013-2018
Figure 50: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, South Africa
Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, South Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 52: ARPU rates by type, South Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 53: Fixed penetration rates by service type, South Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 54: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, South Africa, 2009-2018
Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sudan, 2009-2018
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sudan, 2013-2018
Figure 57: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sudan, 2013-2018
Figure 58: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Sudan
Figure 59: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Sudan, 2009-2018
Figure 60: ARPU rates by type, Sudan, 2009-2018
Figure 61: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Sudan, 2009-2018
Figure 62: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Sudan, 2009-2018
Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Tanzania, 2009-2018
Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Tanzania, 2013-2018
Figure 65: Connections by type, and growth rates, Tanzania, 2013-2018
Figure 66: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Tanzania
Figure 67: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Tanzania, 2009-2018
Figure 68: ARPU rates by type, Tanzania, 2009-2018
Figure 69: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Tanzania, 2009-2018
Figure 70: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Tanzania, 2009-2018
Figure 71: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Uganda, 2009-2018
Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Uganda, 2013-2018
Figure 73: Connections by type, and growth rates, Uganda, 2013-2018
Figure 74: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Uganda
Figure 75: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Uganda, 2009-2018
Figure 76: ARPU rates by type, Uganda, 2009-2018
Figure 77: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Uganda, 2009-2018
Figure 78: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Uganda, 2009-2018

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