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Summary
The Future of the Afghan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020 published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with a detailed analysis of both historic and forecast Afghan defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Key Findings
- Afghan defense expenditure recorded a CAGR of 18.51% between 2011 and 2015, and valued US$1.8 billion in 2015

- The country's total defense expenditure during the forecast period is expected to be US$13.2billion

- The average share of capital expenditure is expected to be 14.9% over the forecast period compared to an average share of 9.8% during 2011-2015

- Over the forecast period, the country's budget for homeland security is expected to be US$9.1 billion cumulatively

- The key areas of investment are expected to be multi-role aircraft, helicopter, armored vehicles, artillery, and surveillance systems

Synopsis
This report offers detailed analysis of the Afghan defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.
In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

- Afghan defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Afghan defense industry during 2016-2020, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's spending patterns and modernization patterns

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by the defense market participants within the country

- Porter's Five Force analysis of the Afghan defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of the buyer, threat of substitutions, intensity of rivalry, and barrier to entry

- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the coming 10 years

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Afghan defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Reasons To Buy
- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Afghan defense industry market trends for the coming five years

- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the country's expected investment pattern during the forecast period

- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

- A deep qualitative analysis of the Afghan defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Force Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Table Of Contents

Future of the Afghan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Afghanistan's defense expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.73% over 2016-2020
3.1.2. US Aid to Afghanistan is expected to decrease over the forecast period
3.1.3. Social Security Reform and rebuilding the military sector to drive defense expenditure over the forecast period
3.1.4. Afghan defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to increase
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Afghanistan to increase its allocation for capital expenditure over the forecast period
3.2.2. Capital expenditure to increase at a CAGR of 18.34% over the forecast period
3.2.3. Revenue expenditure to be US$11.2 billion cumulatively over 2016-2020
3.2.4. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Afghan homeland security budget to increase at a CAGR of 12.35% over the forecast period
3.3.2. Measures to curb terrorism and the drug trade to drive homeland security expenditure
3.3.3. Afghanistan falls under “worst affected” of terrorism category
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Afghanistan to register a high defense expenditure growth rate over 2016-2020
3.4.2. Afghanistan's defense expenditure is low compared to neighboring defense spenders
3.4.3. Afghanistan to allocate an average of 9.8% of GDP towards the defense sector over 2016-2020
3.4.4. Afghanistan faces a high threat from terrorist organizations
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1. Aircraft
3.5.2. Police modernization
3.5.3. Border Security
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Afghanistan's defense industry relies on imports from foreign countries
4.1.2. Afghanistan sourced the majority of its arms from the US
4.1.3. Armored vehicles and aircraft dominate military hardware imports
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Arms exports to be nil over the forecast period
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: medium
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: low
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: medium
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: high
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Afghanistan does not disclose any FDI policy imposed by the country
6.1.2. Offset obligation not disclosed by the government
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Equipment manufacturers can enter the market through government-to-government deals
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Corruption and malpractices
6.3.2. Lack of Skilled labor
6.3.3. Limited defense budget
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Companies
7.2.1. General Dynamics: overview
7.2.2. General Dynamics: products and services
7.2.3. General Dynamics: recent contract wins
7.2.4. Sierra Nevada Corporation: overview
7.2.5. Sierra Nevada Corporation: products and services
7.2.6. Sierra Nevada Corporation: alliances
7.2.7. Sierra Nevada Corporation: recent contract wins
7.2.8. Lockheed Martin Corp.: overview
7.2.9. Lockheed Martin Corp.: products and services
7.2.10. Lockheed Martin Corp.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.11. Lockheed Martin Corp.: recent contract wins
7.2.12. MD Helicopters: overview
7.2.13. MD Helicopters: products and services
7.2.14. MD Helicopters: recent contract wins
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1. Population - Rural
8.1.2. Population - Urban
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. Gross Domestic per Capita
8.2.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$
8.2.3. Exports of Goods and Services
8.2.4. Imports of Goods and Services
8.2.5. Manufacturing Output
8.2.6. Consumer Price Index
8.2.7. Local Currency Unit per US$
8.2.8. LCU per AFN, period average
8.2.9. Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit
8.2.10. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation
8.3.3. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.4. Total Electricity Imports
8.3.5. Proved reserves of Natural Gas
8.3.6. Total Petroleum Consumption
8.4. Infrastructure Quality and Availability
8.4.1. Rail lines, total network
8.4.2. Overall Construction
8.5. Minerals
8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.6. Technology Patents Granted
9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: Afghan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 2: Afghan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 3: Afghan Defense Expenditure (in AFN Billion), 2011-2015
Table 4: Afghan Defense Expenditure (in AFN Billion), 2016-2020
Table 5: US Aid to Afghanistan (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 6: US Aid to Afghanistan (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 7:Afghan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth (US$), 2011-2015
Table 8: Afghan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth (US$), 2016-2020
Table 9: Afghan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
Table 10: Afghan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020
Table 11: Afghan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ million), 2011-2015
Table 12: Afghan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ million), 2016-2020
Table 13: Afghan Capital Expenditure (in AFN Billion), 2011-2015
Table 14: Afghan Capital Expenditure (in AFN Billion), 2016-2020
Table 15: Afghan Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ million), 2011-2015
Table 16: Afghan Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ million), 2016-2020
Table 17: Afghan Revenue Expenditure (in AFN Billion), 2011-2015
Table 18: Afghan Revenue Expenditure (in AFN Billion), 2016-2020
Table 19: Afghan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
Table 20: Afghan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020
Table 21: Afghan Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 22: Afghan Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 23: Afghan Homeland Security Budget (AFN Billion), 2011-2015
Table 24: Afghan Homeland Security Budget (AFN Billion), 2016-2020
Table 25: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
Table 26: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 27: Aircraft Procurement Contracts
Table 28: Afghan Police Modernization Program
Table 29: Afghan Border Security Program
Table 30: General Dynamics- Product focus
Table 31:General Dynamics- Recent Contract Wins
Table 32:Sierra Nevada Corporation- Product focus
Table 33:Sierra Nevada Corporation- Alliances
Table 34: Sierra Nevada Corporation - Recent Contract Wins
Table 35: Lockheed Martin Corp.- Product focus
Table 36: Lockheed Martin Corp.- Recent Contract Wins
Table 35: MD Helicopters- Product focus
Table 36: Lockheed Martin Corp.- Recent Contract Wins

List of Figures
Figure 1: Afghan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 2: Afghan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 3: Afghan Defense Expenditure (in AFN Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 4: Afghan Defense Expenditure (in AFN Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 5: US Aid to Afghanistan (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 6: US aid to Afghanistan (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 7: Afghan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP Growth (US$), 2011-2015
Figure 8: Afghan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth (US$), 2016-2020
Figure 9:Afghan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
Figure 10: Afghan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020
Figure 11: Afghan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ million), 2011-2015
Figure 12: Afghan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ million), 2016-2020
Figure 13: Afghan Capital Expenditure (in AFN Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 14: Afghan Capital Expenditure (in AFN Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 15: Afghan Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ million), 2011-2015
Figure 16: Afghan Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ million), 2016-2020
Figure 17: Afghan Revenue Expenditure (in AFN Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 18: Afghan Revenue Expenditure (in AFN Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 19: Afghan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
Figure 20:Afghan Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020
Figure 21: Afghan Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 22: Afghan Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 23: Afghan Homeland Security Budget (AFN Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 24: Afghan Homeland Security Budget (AFN Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 25: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2015
Figure 26: SDI Terrorism Index, 2015
Figure 27: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
Figure 28: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2015 and 2020
Figure 29: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2015
Figure 30: Afghan Defense Import Trend, 2009-2013 (TIV values)
Figure 31: Afghan Defense Imports by Country (%), 2009-2013
Figure 32: Afghan Defense Imports by Category (%), 2010-2014
Figure 33: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis
Figure 34: Afghanistan Population - Rural (In Millions), 2016-2025
Figure 35: Afghanistan Population - Urban (In Millions), 2016-2025
Figure 36: Afghanistan GDP per capita, 2005-2014
Figure 37: Afghanistan Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Billion), 2011-2020
Figure 38: Afghanistan Exports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 39: Afghanistan Imports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 40: Afghanistan Manufacturing Output (US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 41: Afghanistan Consumer Price Index, 2005-2014
Figure 42: Afghanistan LCU per US$, 2005-2014
Figure 43: Afghanistan LCU per AFN, period average, 2005-2014
Figure 44: Afghanistan Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU Billion), 2006-2011
Figure 45: Afghanistan Government cash Surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP, 2006-2011
Figure 46: Afghanistan Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion KWH), 2002-2010
Figure 47: Afghanistan Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion KWH), 2001-2010
Figure 48: Afghanistan Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2001-2010
Figure 49: Afghanistan Total Electricity Imports (Billion KWH), 2001-2010
Figure 50: Afghanistan Proved reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic feet), 2004-2013
Figure 51: Afghanistan Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels per Day), 2003-2012
Figure 52: Afghanistan Rail lines (total route-Km), 2002-2011
Figure 53: Afghanistan Overall Construction (US$ Billion), 2006-2014
Figure 54: Afghanistan Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output(US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 55: Afghanistan Patents Granted, 2003-2012

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