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Future of the Pakistani Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

  • April 2017
  • -
  • Strategic Defence Intelligence (SDI)
  • -
  • 130 pages

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"Future of the Pakistani Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Summary

Pakistan’s domestic defense industry is able to fulfill the majority of the national requirements for low and mid-market technology defense systems, but is largely unable to supply technologically advanced defense systems. As a result, Pakistan was the seventh-largest importer of arms during 2011-2015, behind India, Saudi Arabia, China, UAE, Australia and Turkey. The country has strong relations with both the US and China, and these nations cater to the majority of Pakistan’s defense requirements. China was the primary arms supplier to Pakistan during 2012-2016. Pakistan also signed deals for the procurement of F-16 fighters, cobra helicopters, submarines, and the modernization of tanks.

Pakistan’s total defense budget increased significantly over 2013-2017, with a CAGR of 9.94%, the country invested US$6.3 Billion in the defense sector in 2013, and increased it to US$9.1 Billion in 2017. This trend is expected to continue during the forecast period, due to the government’s well-defined military procurements plans, in a bid to fight terrorist attacks. Moreover, the nation’s long-standing territorial dispute with India indicates that the Pakistani defense strategy will largely correspond with India’s expenditure and development programs.

However, the Pakistani export market is set to gradually grow over the forecast period, as the country begins to develop high quality indigenous defense systems. The country has also established a defense export promotion board to promote the export of systems such as battle tanks, advanced aircraft trainers, UAVs, and surface-to-air, and anti-tank missile systems.

The Pakistani defense budget is projected to increase from US$10.2 Billion in 2018 to US$15.8 Billion in 2022, at a CAGR of 11.63%. Pakistan is expected to allocate an average of 3% of its GDP to defense expenditure over the forecast period, despite its relatively small economy. Per capita defense expenditure is forecast to increase from US$47.2 in 2017 to US$73.9 in 2022.

Due to the lack of a structured defense budgeting policy until 2008, the Pakistani defense industry has experienced widespread corruption in the use of funds. Although defense procurements are supposed to be made through competitive bidding, this rule is not strictly enforced, which leads to a lack of transparency in the awarding of defense deals. Furthermore, while efforts have been made to streamline the defense budget, Pakistan does not disclose the portion of US military aid assigned for expenses.

The report “Future of the Pakistan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022” offers detailed analysis of the Pakistani defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. Moreover, this report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
- The Pakistani defense industry market size and drivers: Detailed analysis of the Pakistani defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns.
- Budget allocation and key challenges: Insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country.
- Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Pakistani defense industry: Analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry.
- Import and Export Dynamics: Analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years.
- Market opportunities: Details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years.
- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: Analysis of the competitive landscape of the Pakistani defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Companies mentioned in this report:
Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KSEW), Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC), Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF), Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO), Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT), Heavy Mechanical Complex (HMC), Surveillance and Target Unmanned Aircraft (SATUMA), The Boeing Company, Raytheon Missile Systems, Lockheed Martin, and Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group.

Scope
- One of the most attractive defense markets in South Asia, Pakistan is expected to invest US$64.4 billion cumulatively over the forecast period, compared to US$38.3 billion spent between 2013 and 2016. The country’s defense expenditure is expected to focus more on the procurement of equipment to augment its air defense capabilities, enhancing operational capabilities of the current fleet of naval vessels, and communications and surveillance systems. Cumulative expenditure on the procurement of advanced military hardware is projected to be US$24.1 billion over the next five years.
- The capital expenditure allocation, which stood at an average of 13% during the historic period, is expected to decrease to an average of 6.6% during the forecast period. This is primarily due to the procurement of advanced defense equipment and focus on increasing the indigenous defense manufacturing capabilities.The country’s total defense budget increased significantly over 2013-2017, with a CAGR of 9.94%, the country invested US$6.3 billion in the defense sector in 2013, and increased it to US$9.1 billion in 2017. This trend is expected to continue during the forecast period, due to the government’s well-defined military procurements plans, in a bid to fight terrorist attacks. Moreover, the nation’s long-standing territorial dispute with India indicates that the Pakistani defense strategy will largely correspond with India’s expenditure and development programs. Key opportunities for equipment suppliers are expected in sectors such asfighters and multi-role aircraft, aviation MRO, frigates and submarines. Consequently, Pakistan’s capital expenditure share is expected to increase during the forecast period due to internal and external instability. Consequently, the share of capital expenditure as a percentage of overall defense expenditure is expected to increase from an average of 32.0% between 2011 and 2015 to 33.5% over the forecast period.
- The MoD is expected to invest in fighters and Multi-role aircraft, SSK-Diesel Electric Submarine, Aviation MRO and Main Battle Tanks.

Reasons to buy
- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Pakistani defense industry market trends for the coming five years
- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
- A deep qualitative analysis of the Pakistani defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts"

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