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Forecast of the Indian Commercial Vehicle (CV) Market

  • August 2014
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 116 pages

CVs are Expected to Witness a Moderate CAGR of 6.8% from FY2014 to FY2020

Massive urbanization will drive the growth of the LCV segment in India. The new government will focus on urbanization as an opportunity and create 100 more urban cities over the next 5 years. Urban consumption will be key to the 6.8% CAGR from FY2014 to FY2020. Additionally, upgrading India's infrastructure will be a priority for the government to speed up the demand for goods carriers in the M&HCV segments, which is expected to witness a CAGR of 6.9%.

Executive Summary—Key Findings
Total CV Market: Key Takeaways, India, FY2014
1 Exports will outperform domestic sales, % versus %, respectively, from FY2014 to FY2020
2 The domestic commercial vehicles (CV) market in India is expected to witness a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of % from FY2014 to FY2020.
3 Exports will outpace domestic sales during the same period, at a CAGR of %.
4 CV sales will be primarily driven by the increased road freight growth in proportion to the GDP growth rate. GDP growth rate will peak in FY2018, at%.
5 The light commercial vehicles (LCV) segment is anticipated to witness a CAGR of% due to the higher base effect.
6 New-generation medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCV) is expected to witness a CAGR of %.
7 The penetration rate of medium-duty-heavy-duty (MD-HD) trucks is expected to reach% of the total sales in FY2020.
8 Alternate fuel technology-enabled CV sales will amount to units in FY2020.

Executive Summary—Domestic Sales Snapshot Discussion
The LCV goods carrier segment will continue to dominate volumes, with sales of million units in the domestic market
-In FY2014, total domestic sales stood at million units.
-This number is expected to rise to million units in FY2020, at a CAGR of%.
-The LCV goods carrier segment will continue to dominate the market in terms of annual unit sales, reaching million units in FY2020.
-The M&HCV segment will reach sales of million units in FY2020 in the domestic market. The CAGR is expected to be % from FY2014 to FY2020, against a CAGR of % for the LCV good carrier segment during the same period.

Table Of Contents

Forecast of the Indian Commercial Vehicle (CV) Market
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive Summary
Executive Summary—Key Findings
Executive Summary—Market Engineering Measurements
Executive Summary—Domestic Sales Snapshot
Executive Summary—Domestic Sales Snapshot Discussion
Executive Summary—Positioning of Key Segments
Executive Summary—Key Conclusions and Future Outlook

2. RESEARCH SCOPE, OBJECTIVES, BACKGROUND, AND METHODOLOGY

Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
Research Scope
Research Aims and Objectives
Key Questions this Study Will Answer
Research Background
Research Methodology
Key OEM/Participant Groups Covered in this Study

3. DEFINITIONS AND SEGMENTATION

Definitions and Segmentation
Product Segmentation
New-generation MD-HD Trucks—Definition
Vehicle Segmentation
Vehicle Segmentation and Key Participants

4. HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE OF CVS

Historical Performance of CVs
Historical Trends—Production, Sales, Exports
Historical Trends—Domestic Sales
Historical Trends—Goods and Passenger Carrier Split

5. ECONOMIC SECTORS AND ROAD FREIGHT AVAILABILITY— HISTORICAL TRENDS

Economic Sectors and Road Freight Availability— Historical Trends
Economic Sectors and Relevance to CV Segments
Historical Trends in Road Freight Transportation
Dominance of Road Transport in Key Industry Applications
Ownership Pattern of Trucking

6. LCV MARKET—HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE

LCV Market—Historical Performance
LCV Domestic Sales Trend
LCV Passenger Carriers—Domestic Sales Trend
LCV Goods Carriers—Domestic Sales Trend
LCV Passenger Carriers—Domestic OEM Sales Trend
LCV Goods Carriers—Domestic OEM Sales Trend
Growth Rate Trend—LCV Annual Production versus Economic Sector GDP
Growth Rate Trend—LCV Annual Production versus IIP and IAP
Indian LCV Market—Key Takeaways

7. MandHCV MARKET—HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE

MandHCV Market—Historical Performance
MandHCV Domestic Sales Trend
MandHCV Passenger Carriers—Domestic Sales Trend
MandHCV Goods Carriers—Domestic Sales Trend
MandHCV Passenger Carriers—Domestic OEM Sales Trend
MandHCV Goods Carriers—Domestic OEM Sales Trend
Growth Rate Trend—MandHCV Production versus Sectoral GDP
Growth Rate Trend—MandHCV Annual Production versus IIP and IAP
Indian MandHCV Market—Key Takeaways

8. MEGA TRENDS AND INDUSTRY CONVERGENCE IMPLICATIONS

Mega Trends and Industry Convergence Implications
Impact of Top Mega Trends on the CV Market
Urbanization as a Mega Trend
Growth in Urban Regions by 2025
Energy Dependence and Key Technologies
Construction Industry Investment—12th Five Year Plan (2012-2017)
Road Infrastructure in India
Major Investments in Rail Infrastructure

9. EXTERNAL CHALLENGES: DRIVERS AND RESTRAINTS—TOTAL CV MARKET

External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints—Total CV Market
Market Drivers
Market Drivers Explained
Market Restraints
Market Restraints Explained

10. FORECAST AND TRENDS—TOTAL CV MARKET

Forecast and Trends—Total CV Market
Market Engineering Measurements
GDP Forecast—Scenarios
Indian CV Market—Political Stability
Indian CV Market—GDP Agriculture
Indian CV Market—GDP Industrial and GST
Indian CV Market—Per Capita Consumption
Indian CV Market—GDP Mining
Indian CV Market—FDI
Indian CV Market—Infrastructure Investment Cycle
Indian CV Market—Policies with a Direct Impact on CV Sales
Indian CV Market—Emission Norms Roadmap
Estimated Load Carried per Annum by Road
Transportation/Logistics Sector
Market Forecast—Production, Sales, and Exports
CV Market India—Domestic Sales Snapshot
CV Market India Forecast—Domestic Sales
CV Market India Forecast—Sales Carrier Type Split
Value Truck Penetration Forecast
Alternate Fuel Forecast

11. LCV MARKET FORECAST

LCV Market Forecast
Market Drivers
LCV Market—Drivers Affecting the Forecast
Market Restraints
LCV Market—Restraints Affecting the Forecast
LCV Market India Forecast—Sales Carrier Type Split
LCV Market Passenger Carrier India Forecast—Segment-wise Sales
LCV Market Goods Carrier India Forecast—Segment-wise Sales
Technological Trends

12. MandHCV MARKET FORECAST

MandHCV Market Forecast
Market Drivers
MandHCV Market—Drivers Affecting the Forecast
Market Restraints
MandHCV Market—Restraints Affecting the Forecast
MandHCV Market India Forecast—Sales Forecast by Carrier Type
MandHCV Market India Forecast—Sales Forecast Passenger Carrier
MandHCV Market India Forecast—Sales Forecast Goods Carrier
Technological Trends

13. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE OUTLOOK—TOTAL CV MARKET

Conclusions and Future Outlook—Total CV Market
Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
The Last Word—Three Big Predictions
Legal Disclaimer

14. APPENDIX

Appendix
Abbreviations and Acronyms Used
Learn More—Next Steps
Market Engineering Methodology

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