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"The threat from OTT services is having a negative impact on revenue growth. Data revenue will increase, but this will be more than offset by the decline in traditional revenue."

Telecoms service revenue peaked in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2012 – 5 years after it did so in Western Europe (WE) – before beginning to decline. This 5-year lag will be even shorter for the revenue streams – messaging and non-handset mobile broadband – that are declining because of smartphone adoption. Smartphone take-up has been rapid in CEE, accelerating the rate at which over-the-top (OTT) services have replaced SMS usage, and driving the replacement of USB modems with tethering – trends that increasingly closely mirror those in WE.

THIS REPORT AND THE ACCOMPANYING DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed key performance indicators (KPIs) for the region as a whole and for 6 countries
well-documented forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators
an analysis of the trends, drivers and an explanation of the significant changes to our previous forecasts for the region.

Table Of Contents

The Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (6 countries) 2015-2020

Table of contents


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7.Executive summary


8.Total telecoms revenue will decline slightly in the forecast period


9.Handset data revenue will show the greatest gains, and mobile voice the largest losses


10.Revenue will decline in all countries except Turkey, with the mobile markets faring worse in most markets


11.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets


12.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators


13.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison


14.Geographical coverage: 14 countries modelled individually, Russia and Turkey combined account for 58% of the entire region's revenue


15.Market context: Telecoms services revenue accounted for 1.9% of GDP in 2014 and average monthly retail spend per capita was low at EUR11.8


16.Revenue and ARPU: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline, but fixed broadband and IPTV services will grow as their user bases increase


17.Mobile penetration: Multiple-SIM consolidation will cause mobile penetration to stabilise or decline in most countries


18.Mobile connections: 4G roll-out will gather pace during the forecast period


19.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone demand will continue to grow strongly, even in countries where 4G is less advanced


20.Mobile ARPU: ARPU will decline steadily in most countries during the forecast period


21.Fixed services: Migration of voice users to VoBB will accelerate, while fixed broadband growth will slow down


22.Fixed broadband: Household penetration will continue to increase, but at a slower pace and with significant country-by-country variations


23.Key drivers at a glance for each Central and Eastern Europe market


24.Individual country forecasts


25.Czech Republic: The telecoms market will continue to contract
as mobile and fixed voice revenue decline sharply


26.Czech Republic - mobile: ARPU decline will significantly slow down, however competition will continue to drive down revenue


27.Czech Republic - fixed: Price competition in broadband and lack of interest in voice will drive down revenue in the fixed market


28.Poland: Total telecoms service revenue will continue to decline
because price competition will continue to be intense


29.Poland - mobile: Price competition will put downward pressure on ARPU, despite the enrichment of the customer base


30.Poland - fixed: Broadband ASPU will be stable as customers move to faster services and quadruple-play's impact will be limited


31.Russia: Retail revenue will decline as mobile price competition intensifies and growth in fixed broadband slows down


32.Russia - mobile: Market consolidation will drive a decline in the number of connections and stimulate competition


33.Russia - fixed: FTTH/B roll-out will drive fixed broadband growth, regional fragmentation of ISPs will limit broadband ASPU decline


34.Turkey: Strong expansion in the mobile and fixed broadband connections will drive continued revenue growth


35.Turkey - mobile: Regulation kept mobile ARPU stable and 4G's arrival will bolster it further, fuelling revenue growth


36.Turkey - fixed: Fibre development combined with an improved economic environment will drive further fixed broadband growth


37.About the authors and Analysys Mason


38.About the authors


39.About Analysys Mason


40.Research from Analysys Mason


41.Consulting from Analysys Mason


List of figures


Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020


Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, Central and Eastern Europe


Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe


Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA's share of fixed broadband connections, by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2020


Figure 6: Metrics for 6 of the countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2014


Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020


Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020


Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2020


Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2020


Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Czech Republic, 2010-2020


Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2014-2020


Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2014-2020


Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Czech Republic, 2010-2020


Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Czech Republic, 2010-2020


Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic


Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Czech Republic, 2010-2020


Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, Czech Republic, 2010-2020


Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic


Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Poland, 2010-2020


Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Poland, 2014-2020


Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, Poland, 2014-2020


Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Poland, 2010-2020


Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Poland, 2010-2020


Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Poland


Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Poland, 2010-2020


Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, Poland, 2010-2020


Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Poland


Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Russia, 2010-2020


Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Russia, 2014-2020


Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Russia, 2014-2020


Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Russia, 2010-2020


Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Russia, 2010-2020


Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Russia


Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Russia, 2010-2020


Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, Russia, 2010-2020


Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Russia


Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Russia


Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Turkey, 2014-2020


Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, Turkey, 2014-2020


Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Turkey, 2010-2020


Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Turkey, 2010-2020


Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Turkey


Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Turkey, 2010-2020


Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Turkey, 2010-2020


Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Turkey

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