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New mobile and fixed technology roll-outs will be the main growth drivers, but automation and self-organised network (SON) features will enhance the value of NMS as a rich source of data and main control point, for the optimised operation of the network.

The worldwide network management systems (NMS) market is forecast to grow from USD4.6 billion in revenue in 2013 to USD5.6 billion in 2018, at a 3.9% CAGR, starting to recover from the 4% decline in 2012 and 2% growth in 2013. The NMS market is linked to equipment sales, and we expect LTE, small-cell and FTTx roll-outs to drive growth during the forecast period.

This report provides:
a detailed worldwide forecast for spending on NMS, split into:
four telecoms services:
mobile
business
residential broadband
PSTN
four geographical regions (see below).
a summary of the key trends and factors impacting the NMS market between 2013 and 2018
an examination of the key market drivers and inhibitors for the NMS market during the next 5 years
recommendations for communications service providers (CSPs) and network equipment providers (NEPs)
insight into the impact of emerging technologies and opportunities – such as LTE, SON, network function virtualisation (NFV), software-defined networking (SDN), customer experience management (CEM), M2M and new digital economy services – on the NMS market
an examination of the CSPs’ business environment that drives NMS market growth.

This report is a companion to the previously published NEPs’ network management systems: worldwide market shares 2013, which details the business conditions in this market, as well as the market shares, offerings and strategies of the major NEPs.


GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Forecasts are split into the following four regions:
Asia–Pacific (APAC)
Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA)
Latin America (LATAM)
North America (NA)

Table Of Contents

The NEPs' network management systems: worldwide forecast 2014-2018

Table of contents


5.Executive summary


6.Worldwide NMS forecast, 2014-2018: LTE in emerging markets will inject growth, but only moderate growth is predicted for this mature market


7.Fixed and mobile broadband technologies and services will drive market growth in mobile, business services and residential broadband NMS


8.Large LTE roll-outs in emerging markets will drive long-term growth for APAC, while expansions will drive lower growth in developed markets


9.Recommendations


10.NMS need to enable operational flexibility and data access, to maintain value in multi-vendor environments with new services requirements


11.Recommendations for CSPs


12.Recommendations for NEPs


13.Forecast


14.HetNets (LTE and small cell deployments) will be the main driver for continued growth in the mobile NMS market


15.Growth will return to EMEA as more CSPs in Western Europe modernise networks for LTE, while investment in developed APAC will decline


16.Business services NMS growth will be slow until 2015, as CSPs make use of their abundant existing capacity


17.APAC will register growth in business services spending for LTE backhaul upgrades and data centre connectivity


18.Video, new digital services, Wi-Fi and femtocells will be the key market drivers for residential broadband NMS, while NBN investments decline


19.Optical NGA investments continue to drive the overall growth in residential broadband NMS in emerging and mature markets


20.PSTN NMS maintenance spend is plateauing because CSPs are doing most of the maintenance in-house to reduce spending even further


21.LATAM will continue to have the slowest decline in PSTN NMS spending


22.Market drivers and inhibitors


23.Market drivers and inhibitors


24.NMS market drivers [1]


25.NMS market drivers [2]


26.NMS market drivers [3]


27.NMS market drivers [4]


28.NMS market inhibitors [1]


29.NMS market inhibitors [2]


30.NMS market inhibitors [3]


31.Business environment


32.The business environment in 2013


33.The business environment by region in 2013


34.Nearly one fifth of mobile connections worldwide will be on LTE networks by 2018, but impact on NMS will be smaller than on infrastructure


35.The USA will have the largest number of LTE connections during the forecast period, but China will almost catch up by 2018


36.Competition looks set to intensify and drive down mobile ARPU in all regions - declines in Europe will have the greatest impact


andnbsp;


37.Fixed data traffic worldwide will increase by a factor of 3.6 between 2014 and 2019; capacity is built by 100G and submarine cable upgrades


38.FTTH/B growth will be stronger than cable and will help to drive IPTV adoption - particularly in DVAP


39.Investment in residential broadband will slow down after 2015, when fibre deployments will be largely complete in developed markets


40.Fixed broadband service revenue shows strong growth in Europe, and coverage is already high in DVAP and the USA


41.Market definition


42.Telecoms software market segmentation


43.Infrastructure solution categories


44.NMS overview


45.NMS segment, sub-segment and revenue type definitions


46.Definition of geographical regions [1]


47.Definition of geographical regions [2]


48.Definition of geographical regions [3]


49.Key business drivers and market characteristics and how they map to different operational and software strategies


50.Our comprehensive forecast model is supported by a sound knowledge of markets


51.About the authors and Analysys Mason


52.About the authors


53.About Analysys Mason


54.Research from Analysys Mason


55.Consulting from Analysys Mason


andnbsp;


List of figures


Figure 1: NMS revenue, worldwide, 2013-2018


Figure 2: NMS revenue by telecoms service, worldwide, 2013-2018


Figure 3: NMS revenue by region, worldwide, 2013-2018


Figure 4: CSP business objectives, technologies and services


Figure 5: Mobile NMS revenue, worldwide, 2013-2018


Figure 6: Mobile NMS revenue, worldwide, 2013-2018


Figure 7: Business services NMS revenue, worldwide, 2013-2018


Figure 8: Business services NMS revenue by region, worldwide, 2013-2018


Figure 9: Residential broadband NMS revenue, worldwide, 2013-2018


Figure 10: Residential broadband NMS revenue by region, worldwide,
2013-2018


Figure 11: PSTN NMS revenue, worldwide, 2013-2018


Figure 12: PSTN NMS revenue by region, worldwide, 2013-2018


Figure 13a-d: Network management systems market drivers


Figure 14a-c: Network management systems market inhibitors


Figure 15: Mobile connections by technology generation, and LTE's share, worldwide, 2010-2018


Figure 16: LTE connections by country, 2012


Figure 17: LTE connections by country, 2018


Figure 18: Mobile ARPU by region, worldwide, 2009-2018


Figure 19: Total fixed IP data traffic in access network, worldwide, 2012-2019


Figure 20: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, worldwide, 2009-2018


Figure 21: FTTx capex by region, to 2019


Figure 22: FTTx capex by region, 2014-2019


Figure 23: Change in fixed broadband and mobile service revenue by region, worldwide, 2012-2013


Figure 24: CAGR of fixed broadband and mobile service revenue by region, worldwide, 2013-2019


Figure 25: Telecoms software market segments


Figure 26: Infrastructure solution categories


Figure 27: Interfaces supported by NMS


Figure 28: Definitions of NMS and its sub-segments


Figure 29: NMS revenue type definitions


Figure 30: Regional breakdown used in this report


Figure 31a-b: Regional breakdown used in this report


Figure 32: Mapping of key business drivers and market characteristics according to business environment, and operational and software strategies


Figure 33: Key factors influencing forecast assumptions

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