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Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View:

We retain our generally negative outlook for Ukraine's agricultural sector in 2016 owing to a range of concerns. All agricultural markets will be negatively affected by the poor macroeconomic fundamentals in Ukraine. There will be limited investment into the country over the coming quarters given the unstable political and economic situation, which will affect agricultural production over our forecast period. Russia's ban on imports from Ukraine will weigh on production for the dairy and livestock industries, as Russia represents one of Ukraine's largest agricultural export markets. Furthermore, significant currency depreciation will limit imports, hitting input use and domestic investment. However, we believe that Ukrainian farmers will fail to benefit from the opportunities linked to this weaker currency due to export restrictions and lack of resources to scale up production in the medium term. Key Forecasts

- Corn production will decline by 18.0% in 2015/16 to reach a total value of 23.3mn tonnes.

- We are estimating the wheat crop in 2016/17 to decline by 8.3% to reach 25.0mn tonnes.

- The livestock and dairy sectors will perform poorly in 2015/16 owing to unsound macroeconomic conditions.

Table Of Contents

Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Ukraine - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 15
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 15
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 15
Dairy Outlook 16
Latest Updates 16
Table: Ukraine - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Risks To Outlook 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 20
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 20
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 20
Livestock Outlook 21
Latest Updates 21
Table: Ukraine - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Risks To Outlook 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 25
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 25
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 25
Commodity Price Analysis 26
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 26
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 26
Upstream Analysis 28
Europe Machinery Outlook 28
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates) 31
Europe GM Outlook 34
Europe Fertiliser Outlook 41
Downstream Analysis 47
Food 47
Latest Updates 47
Structural Trends 48
Table: Food Sales (Ukraine 2013-2020) 49
Regional Overview 51
Europe Regional Overview 51
Competitive Landscape 57
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 57
Demographic Forecast 58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025) 59
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025) 59
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025) 60
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025) 60
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025) 61
Methodology 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Sector-Specific Methodology 64

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