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Trade Credit Insurance in Major Global Markets

  • April 2014
  • -
  • Finaccord
  • -
  • 196 pages

Trade Credit Insurance in Major Global Markets is a report about markets for trade credit cover in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Japan, the Middle East (defined as the GCC countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE), Russia, South Africa and the USA. Valued at over USD 3.5 billion in gross written premiums in 2013, these markets are growing to one degree or another in all ten territories, with especially rapid growth being recorded in China and the Middle East.

In addition to documenting the development of the market value from 2009 to 2013, the report also divides it for the most recent year between four key segments: between small companies with an annual turnover of less than USD 5 million and larger companies with a turnover above this threshold; between single-risk and annual policies; between export and domestic trade credit insurance; and between protection acquired for political risks and cover bought for business risks.

These unique market splits are based in part on a survey of over 150 leading brokers of trade credit insurance across the ten markets. In each territory, this same survey also identifies the underwriters used by brokers on a regular basis, gives an input into Finaccord's estimates for the market shares of underwriters of trade credit insurance, provides a basis for commentary surrounding distribution channels used for this type of policy, helps to identify the brokers with the highest distribution share and informs Finaccord's forecasts for the market value through to 2017.

Key features of this report include:

- quantification of the market size for trade credit insurance in each of the ten territories: how much is each market worth, where is the fastest growth occurring and how do they break down into key segments?

- presentation of the actual or estimated market shares of underwriters of trade credit insurance in 2013 based on both the survey of over 150 brokers and other available data sources;

- audit of the frequency of usage of underwriters by major brokers of trade credit insurance in each market: to what extent are competitors effectively challenging incumbents such as Sinosure in China and CGIC in South Africa?

- availability of an accompanying PartnerBASE™ dataset that logs partnerships for trade credit insurance identified by Finaccord across major banks and trade associations in each market;

- forecasts for the market for trade credit insurance in each territory and how it will split between domestic and export trade credit cover: what is this sector likely to look like in 2017?

Table Of Contents

Trade Credit Insurance in Major Global Markets
TABLE OF CONTENTS
0.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...1
Trade credit insurance in China and the Middle East recorded particularly rapid growth from 2009 to 2013 ...2
China and the US host the largest markets for trade credit insurance across the ten territories analysed3
...although relative to GDP the South African market is the most developed..4
Three international specialists dominate the market for trade credit insurance in four markets.5
... but in overall terms more business across the ten geographies is underwritten by other players .5
The total market is predicted to expand at a compound annual rate of 10% in real terms up to 2017..6
The markets for export and domestic trade credit cover are forecast to advance at a broadly similar pace.6
1.0 INTRODUCTION 8
What is this report about?..8
Rationale.8
Several factors underpin the rationale for the production of this study8
There are several distribution channel options in addition to brokers..8
Globally, trade credit insurers cover over USD 2 trillion of commercial credit exposures...8
The report provides a standardised analysis of important metrics for trade credit insurance.9
Methodology...9
Research program..9
Market data analysis.10
Definitions .10
Trade credit insurance..10
Single-risk and annual policies.10
Export and domestic policies ...10
Political and business risks...11
Premiums ..11
Abbreviations 11
PartnerBASE12
Finaccord..12
2.0 MAJOR MARKET OVERVIEW...13
Introduction...13
Market size and growth14
Value of premiums14
The value of gross written premiums reached more than USD 3.6 billion across the ten markets in 2013.14
Five of the ten markets have seen premiums grow by more than 10% per year in nominal terms since 2009 ..15
Premiums as a percentage of GDP.18
Russia hosts the least developed market for trade credit insurance relative to its GDP ..18
Across the ten territories, factoring markets display greatly differing characteristics and growth rates19
In several markets, both factoring and trade credit insurance are fairly recent innovations .20
Market segmentation ...22
Segmentation by size of customer...22
As an average across all ten territories, smaller customers account for just over one fifth of the market22
Segmentation between single-risk and annual policies..24
Single-risk trade credit insurance policies are most significant in China ...24
Segmentation between export and domestic trade credit insurance.26
The relative importance of export trade credit insurance is greatest in India and the Middle East... ...26
...and the latter is the most export-dependent economy of the ten considered 27
Segmentation between cover for political risks and business risks ...29TRADE CREDIT INSURANCE IN MAJOR GLOBAL MARKETS
© FINACCORD (04/2014) iii
Acquiring cover for political risks is of most importance to clients in Brazil29
Underwriter market shares ..30
Atradius, Coface and Euler Hermes together hold over 50% of the market in four of the ten territories..30
More than 60 different underwriters work on a regular basis with brokers in at least one country...32
Both AIG and Coface hold relationships with brokers in nine of the ten markets covered...34
Several underwriters ranked in the top 20 are limited to operations in one country only..34
Distribution channels36
Brokers constitute the main distribution channel in five markets although there are several alternatives... 36
... including direct and agency sales... 36
... and sales via banks and factoring companies36
Banks are involved in the intermediation of trade credit insurance in six out of ten markets38
Trade associations in China are most likely to offer trade credit insurance to members..39
Future outlook...40
Across the ten territories combined, the market value is expected to make rapid progress up to 2017…..40
...with the strongest real growth occurring in China, India, the Middle East and Russia...40
The market for domestic trade credit insurance is likely to decline in one of the ten territories43
... but real growth is predicted for all ten countries in the case of export trade credit insurance...44
3.0 AUSTRALIA..47
Introduction...47
Market size, growth and segmentation...48
The Australian trade credit insurance market has lacked momentum in recent years.48
The number of insolvencies hit an all-time high in the 2011-12 fiscal year...48
Over 50% of business-to-business transactions in Australia are made with deferred payment terms 48
A few brokers concentrate on selling trade credit insurance to smaller companies .50
Most brokers surveyed sell single-risk policies although this remains a small part of the total market51
More than a quarter of the total market is due to export trade credit insurance52
EFIC is not active in short-term trade credit insurance...52
In recent years, exports have accounted consistently for just over 20% of Australian GDP53
Political risk policies can sometimes be acquired on a stand-alone basis 54
Factoring as a complementary / substitute product ...55
Australia plays host to a relatively well-developed market for factoring.55
Underwriter market shares ..56
QBE is comfortably the market leader by value of business underwritten…56
…although competition comes from both three international specialists... ...56
…and foreign insurers underwriting trade credit risks offshore..56
As many as 16 underwriters of trade credit insurance attract some degree of broker utilisation .58
Distribution channels59
NCI has established a dominant position in the distribution of trade credit insurance in Australia...59
... although several other brokers maintain sizeable teams in this field.59
The Export Council of Australia maintains relationships with several underwriters of trade credit insurance..59
Future outlook...59
The Australian market is expected to return to gentle growth up to 2017.59
4.0 BRAZIL..61
Introduction...61
Market size, growth and segmentation...62
The market for trade credit insurance grew at a compound annual rate of 11.5% between 2009 and 2013..62
... and while the industry-wide claims ratio nearly doubled in 2012, it remains comparatively low ..62
About one half of all business-to-business transactions in Brazil are made on deferred payment terms62
Small companies account for a relatively low proportion of total trade credit insurance premiums paid... ..64
... and single-risk policies are not common.65
Trade credit insurance for domestic risks makes up the vast majority of the market66
... albeit SBCE has been active in export trade credit insurance since 199766
Compared to other major global markets, the value of exports as a percentage of GDP is fairly low .67
Cover for political risks accounts for a very substantial proportion of the total market value68TRADE CREDIT INSURANCE IN MAJOR GLOBAL MARKETS
© FINACCORD (04/2014) iv
... as a result of the presence of Argentina and China among Brazil's largest trading partners ...68
Factoring as a complementary / substitute product ...69
The value of Brazil's factoring market more than doubled between 2008 and 2010 before then falling back.69
Underwriter market shares ..70
Coface is the largest underwriter in a market in which there are seven significant competitors...70
AIG and Zurich are both understood to have experienced rapid growth in recent years .70
On average, brokers work regularly with close to four of these seven insurance providers.72
At least two significant new competitors are preparing to enter the Brazilian market...72
Distribution channels73
Brokers are the dominant distribution channel for trade credit insurance in Brazil ...73
Leading brokers of trade credit cover include CredRisk Seguros and IRC Brasil.73
... although many others are already active or are planning to increase their involvement..73
Future outlook...74
The trade credit insurance market has quite significant potential to grow further up to 2017...74
5.0 CANADA...76
Introduction...76
Market size, growth and segmentation...76
Canada's trade credit insurance market has delivered little growth in recent years... ..76
... in spite of the country's reasonably strong economic performance since 201077
A high proportion of the market is accounted for by small companies with a turnover below USD 5 million...78
The vast majority of the market is likely to be accounted for by annual policies...79
... with export trade credit insurance outweighing domestic trade credit cover by a fairly slim margin 80
Exports account for about 30% of Canadian GDP, a figure that has changed little since 2010...81
Cover for political risks plays a minor role in the Canadian market for trade credit insurance .81
EDC's influence is greater than that of equivalent state-owned enterprises in other countries81
Factoring as a complementary / substitute product ...82
Canada's factoring sector has expanded very rapidly from a low base in recent years...82
Underwriter market shares ..83
The presence of EDC means that the Canadian market for trade credit cover is quite concentrated.83
Competition comes from familiar international specialists plus several other niche players 83
Among brokers surveyed, Euler Hermes is the most frequently used provider of trade credit policies... 84
... with another eight companies enjoying utilisation to one degree or another.84
Distribution channels85
Insurance agents and direct sales provide significant competition to brokers... ...85
...and several banks are also involved in the distribution of trade credit insurance...86
... as are a handful of trade associations, most of which have partnered with EDC.86
Future outlook...87
The trade credit insurance market is forecast to experience improved growth up to 2017 ..87
6.0 CHINA89
Introduction...89
Market size, growth and segmentation...90
The Chinese market for trade credit insurance has experienced extraordinary growth since 2009 90
Over 40% of business-to-business transactions in China are made with deferred payment terms.90
The bulk of the trade credit insurance market is attributable to premiums paid by larger companies..91
The proportion of single-risk policies within the market total is relatively high in China92
Export trade credit insurance accounts for more than half of the total market…..93
... and Sinosure lost its monopoly position in this sector in January 2013.93
The Chinese economy is becoming progressively less dependent on exports94
Cover for political risks makes up a significant proportion of the total market value.95
Factoring as a complementary / substitute product ...96
In recent years, China's factoring market has registered a six-fold increase in value...96
Underwriter market shares ..97
Sinosure remains the overall market leader by a very considerable margin.97
…while a number of providers compete in domestic trade credit insurance.97

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