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Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 61 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The interest of foreign investors in the Kazakhstan livestock industry supports our view that thisis the sub-sector with most growth potential. Poultry production in particular is expected to perform wellover the next five years. The development of the livestock industry ties into another key trend we expect totake hold over our forecast period: the diversification of arable production away from the bedrockcommodity, wheat. Feed grains will assume greater importance, particularly corn, in the grains complex.The dairy industry is growing from a weaker base than that enjoyed by meat producers, so we expect statefundedschemes to play a more significant role in its medium-term development and modernisation.

Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2019/20: 3.75% to 13.8mn tonnes. Yields will support modest annualincreases in output beyond 2016/17. This is despite declining acreage due to subsidies incentivisingsowings of other field crops.

- Milk consumption growth to 2020: 17.0% to 5.3mn tonnes. Demand will be held back in the shortterm by the challenging macroeconomic situation, but we expect strong growth to return in the later yearsof our forecast period.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 1.5%, down from 1.3% in 2015.

- 2016 average consumer price inflation: 12.8% y-o-y, up from 7.0% y-o-y in 2015.

Table Of Contents

Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Dairy Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Kazakhstan - Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Kazakhstan 2012-2020) 13
Livestock Outlook 14
Latest Updates 14
Table: Kazakhstan - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Kazakhstan 2010-2020) 19
Grains Outlook 20
Latest Updates 20
Table: Kazakhstan - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Risks To Outlook 21
Structural Trends 22
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Kazakhstan 2012-2020) 23
Commodities Price Analysis 25
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 25
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 25
Upstream Analysis 27
Europe GM Outlook 27
Europe Machinery Outlook 33
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates) 37
Europe Fertiliser Outlook 39
Downstream Analysis 46
Food 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 47
Table: Food Sales (Kazakhstan 2013-2020) 48
Regional Overview 50
Europe Regional Overview 50
Demographic Forecast 55
Demographic Outlook 55
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) 56
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) 56
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) 57
Table: Population By Age Group (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) 57
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) 58
Methodology 60
Industry Forecast Methodology 60
Sector-Specific Methodology 61

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