The Nuclear Power Market Outlook for Developing Countries: Market overview, capacity growth, drivers, resistors and future outlook

• Publication date: June 2010

Nuclear power contributed about 15% to the total world electricity generation in 2009 with an installed capacity of 373GW. There are currently 436 nuclear reactors in operation in 30 countries worldwide. The US is the largest producer of nuclear power generating 31% of the total global nuclear generation followed by France, Japan and Russia. Nuclear power is an important source of power for countries such as Lithuania which generated 76.2% of its...

Nuclear power contributed about 15% to the total world electricity generation in 2009 with an installed capacity of 373GW. There are currently 436 nuclear reactors in operation in 30 countries worldwide. The US is the largest producer of nuclear power generating 31% of the total global nuclear generation followed by France, Japan and Russia. Nuclear power is an important source of power for countries such as Lithuania which generated 76.2% of its electricity through nuclear followed by France whose nuclear share in electricity generation stood at 75.2% in 2009. In addition, 16 countries generate more than 25% of their electricity through nuclear power and four countries more than 50% including Slovakia and Belgium.
The need for energy security and growing emphasis on reducing greenhouse gas emissions is driving nuclear power development globally. However, concerns relating to high capital costs and nuclear safeguards may hinder the development of nuclear power.
The report documents the growth of the nuclear power, showing its current status and outlook.
The report gathers the statistical data on nuclear power generation of the top 10 non-OECD countries and provides the drivers and resistors in these countries.

Key features of this report

• Overview of the global nuclear power industry accompanied by installed capacity and generation of nuclear power.
• Nuclear power technology globally and economics of nuclear power generation.
• Current situation in the top 10 non-OECD countries by nuclear power generation and its outlook.
• Key players, drivers and resistors for the top 10 non-OECD nuclear power generating nations.
• Outlook for global nuclear power industry and estimated nuclear power capacity additions by 2030.

Scope of this report

• Achieve a quick and comprehensive understanding of how the current nuclear power market is influencing nuclear power development.
• Assess the competitiveness of nuclear power in comparison to other forms of energy such as coal, gas and wind.
• Assess the current situation of nuclear power development in the developing nations and the drivers and resistors.
• Understand the major issues affecting nuclear power development globally and developing countries specifically.
• Provides an outlook for the nuclear power development on a global scale.

Key Market Issues

• Lack of infrastructure and talent: Limited choice of reactors due to few reactor designers coupled with talent shortage for architecture and project management may constrain the growth of the global nuclear power industry.
• High capital costs: While nuclear power running costs are low, the capital cost of setting up a nuclear power plant continues to be high. High capital cost of nuclear power is a major barrier to the development of nuclear power if uncertainties in the credit markets persist.
• Radiation fears: Radiation fears due to storing used fuel at plant site or dumping the nuclear waste close to populated regions is raising concerns over nuclear power development.
• Proliferation: Concerns over diversion of nuclear material for weapons manufacturing and the risk of nuclear materials falling in unsafe hands continue to limit the pace at which nuclear power is growing.

Key findings from this report

• Nuclear power contributed about 15% to the total world electricity generation in 2009 with an installed capacity of 373GW. There are currently 436 nuclear reactors in operation in 30 countries worldwide. The US is the largest producer of nuclear power generating 31% of the total global nuclear generation followed by France, Japan and Russia.
• The need for energy security and growing emphasis on reducing greenhouse gas emissions is driving nuclear power development globally.
• Concern relating to the effects of global warming is driving nations to look for cleaner sources of energy such as nuclear power. Only nuclear and hydropower can provide large-scale clean alternative source of power generation compared to fossil fuels with continuous and reliable supply of electricity.
• Currently there are 53 reactors under construction in 14 countries with a total capacity of 51GW as of 2009 with majority being built in Asian countries.

Key questions answered

• What are the drivers shaping and influencing nuclear power industry?
• What is the outlook for nuclear power development globally?
• What are the technological developments in nuclear power generation?
• Which regions are rapidly developing and planning to add new nuclear capacities?
• Who are the major players in nuclear power equipment manufacturing?

Nuclear Energy Industry in South Africa

Table of Contents
The Nuclear Power Market Outlook for Developing
Countries
Executive summary 10
Market overview 10
Russia 11
Ukraine 11
China 12
Taiwan 12
Bulgaria 13
India 13
Brazil 14
South Africa 14
Romania 15
Lithuania 15
Chapter 1 Market overview 18
Summary 18
Overview of the electricity sector 19
Overview of nuclear power 20
Global nuclear capacity 21
Global nuclear generation 24
Drivers of global nuclear power 27
Resistors of global nuclear power 28
Nuclear power generation technology 29
Nuclear fuel 31
Nuclear economics 35
Chapter 2 Russia 38
Summary 38
Energy supply mix 38
Key players 40
Drivers of nuclear power 41
Resistors of nuclear power 42
Chapter 3 Ukraine 44
Summary 44
Energy supply mix 44
Key players 47
Drivers of nuclear power 47
Resistors of nuclear power 48
Chapter 4 China 50
Summary 50
Energy supply mix 50
Key players 52
Drivers of nuclear power 52
Resistors of nuclear power 53
Chapter 5 Taiwan 56
Summary 56
Energy supply mix 56
Key players 58
Drivers of nuclear power 58
Resistors of nuclear power 59
Chapter 6 Bulgaria 62
Summary 62
Energy supply mix 62
Key players 64
Drivers of nuclear power 64
Resistors of nuclear power 65
Chapter 7 India 68
Summary 68
Energy supply mix 68
Key players 71
Drivers of nuclear power 72
Resistors of nuclear power 73
Chapter 8 Brazil 76
Summary 76
Energy supply mix 76
Key players 79
Drivers of nuclear power 79
Resistors of nuclear power 80
Chapter 9 South Africa 82
Summary 82
Energy supply mix 82
Key players 85
Drivers of nuclear power 85
Resistors of nuclear power 86
Chapter 10 Romania 88
Summary 88
Energy supply mix 88
Key players 90
Drivers of nuclear power 91
Resistors of nuclear power 91
Chapter 11 Lithuania 94
Summary 94
Energy supply mix 94
Chapter 12 Future outlook 98
Nuclear power renaissance driven by concerns over energy security and climate change 98
Glossary 101
Index 102
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Global electricity generation (TWh), 1971–2007 20
Figure 1.2: Global nuclear power installed capacity (GW), 1960–2009 23
Figure 1.3: Global nuclear power generation (TWh), 1970–2009 26
Figure 2.4: Russia electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 39
Figure 3.5: Ukraine electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 45
Figure 4.6: China electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 51
Figure 5.7: Taiwan electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 57
Figure 6.8: Bulgaria electricity consumption (TWh), 2003–07 63
Figure 7.9: India electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 69
Figure 8.10: Brazil electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 77
Figure 9.11: South Africa electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 83
Figure 10.12: Romania electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 89
Figure 11.13: Lithuania electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 95
Table 1.1: Global electricity generation (TWh), 1971–2007 19
Table 1.2: Global nuclear power installed capacity (GW), 1960–2009 22
Table 1.3: Top 10 non-OECD nuclear power installed capacity (GW), 2009 24
Table 1.4: Global nuclear power generation (TWh), 1970–2009 25
Table 1.5: Top 10 non–OECD nuclear power generation (TWh), 2000–09 27
Table 1.6: Nuclear technology worldwide, 2008 30
Table 1.7: World known recoverable uranium resources (tonnes), 2007 32
Table 1.8: World uranium production (tonnes), 2003–09 33
Table 1.9: Overnight construction cost comparison of various power generation technologies (US$/kW), 2009 36
Table 1.10: Levelized cost of electricity of various technologies, 2009 36
Table 2.11: Russia electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 39
Table 3.12: Ukraine electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 45
Table 4.13: China electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 51
Table 5.14: Taiwan electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 57
Table 6.15: Bulgaria electricity consumption (TWh), 2003–07 63
Table 7.16: India electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 69
Table 8.17: Brazil electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 77
Table 9.18: South Africa electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 83
Table 10.19: Romania electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 89
Table 11.20: Lithuania electricity generation (TWh), 2003–07 95
Table 12.21: Global nuclear power capacity under construction (GW), 2010 99
Table 12.22: Global planned nuclear capacity, 2010 100