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Country Economic Forecasts

  • October 2014
  • 3 pages
  • Oxford Economics
Report ID: 2348654


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Economic growth has
held up reasonably well despite near-stagnation in the Russian economy. GDP
grew by 6.7% in H1 compared with a full-year outturn of 7.4% in 2013, underpinned
by a 28% rise in investment and robust consumption, with remittances inflows
falling back only slightly and public consumption remaining strong. But we
expect the impact of the Russian downturn to intensify in H2 and into 2015,
which will hit remittances (equal to 48% of GDP) that come almost entirely from
Russia. With commodity prices subdued and monetary policy tightening, we now
expect GDP growth to slow to 5.5% in 2015 from an expected 6.2% this year. Over
the medium term, we forecast growth of about 6% a year. The trade deficit
climbed sharply in the first eight months of 2014 as exports shrank 14% while imports
rose by almost 20% on the back of strong domestic demand. As a result, and with
remittances falling sharply, we expect the current account deficit to widen
from about 1% of GDP in 2013 to almost 12% of GDP this year, with a further climb
to over 18% seen in 2015.

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