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Country Economic Forecasts

  • October 2014
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 3 pages

Economic growth has
held up reasonably well despite near-stagnation in the Russian economy. GDP
grew by 6.7% in H1 compared with a full-year outturn of 7.4% in 2013, underpinned
by a 28% rise in investment and robust consumption, with remittances inflows
falling back only slightly and public consumption remaining strong. But we
expect the impact of the Russian downturn to intensify in H2 and into 2015,
which will hit remittances (equal to 48% of GDP) that come almost entirely from
Russia. With commodity prices subdued and monetary policy tightening, we now
expect GDP growth to slow to 5.5% in 2015 from an expected 6.2% this year. Over
the medium term, we forecast growth of about 6% a year. The trade deficit
climbed sharply in the first eight months of 2014 as exports shrank 14% while imports
rose by almost 20% on the back of strong domestic demand. As a result, and with
remittances falling sharply, we expect the current account deficit to widen
from about 1% of GDP in 2013 to almost 12% of GDP this year, with a further climb
to over 18% seen in 2015.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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