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Country Economic Forecasts > Hong Kong China

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 11 pages

The economy ended 2016 on a reasonably positive note, with export performance improving notably in November, and surveys showing the private sector pulling out of recession. In addition, trends in retail sales, tourist arrivals and property prices appear more stable now.

A healthy jobs market and increasing incomes continue to underpin local consumption. But there are risks facing the domestic economy. With the stamp duty hike in November starting to take its toll on property sales, there is the risk of a correction in property prices, which could be exacerbated by rising interest rates in the US and stricter controls on overseas investment from the Mainland. Moreover, although the external trade background improved in H2 2016, prospects are still subject to a high level of uncertainty, in particular about the direction of US trade policy.

Overall, we maintain our real GDP growth forecast of 1.9% this year after an estimated 1.5% in 2016.


Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Hong Kong China
Hong Kongand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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