In marked contrast to the latest UK survey data, the first readings from the European indicators of business and consumer confidence suggest that activity has only been modestly affected by Brexit. Nevertheless, at 52.9 the July euro area composite PMI is the lowest in 18 months and points to growth of 0.3% q/q in Q3. It therefore looks as if Brexit has ended the chances of a strong revival of growth in H2, but it has not pushed the European economy towards a more marked slowdown. Allowing for some recovery in sentiment, as the Brexit-related shock begins to lift, this suggests that growth in 2017 will slow modestly in line with our forecast of 1.5%.
From a UK perspective, it looks increasingly likely that the government will aim for a free trade agreement with the EU along the lines currently being negotiated with Canada. This would see the UK gain access to, but not full membership of, the single market which is likely to be the only way Britain will be able to negotiate substantive controls on immigration.
Table Of Contents
Weekly Economic Briefings > Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefings
Lead Articleand#58; Two to five page briefing headed by a synopsis of events-driven analysis for the week, which highlights most recent data releases, and political and economic developments.
Historical, forecast, and analytical charts and graphs support the lead article. Country specific and/or Eurozone charts include the most relevant indicators and exemplify any changes in the outlook. The historical charts typically offer a 10 to 15 year time series and cover headline and other relevant indicators including GDP, employment, inflation, exchange rate changes, consumer and business confidence, developments in the capital markets, the composition of sovereign debt including amortization schedules and changes in yields, economic outlook by sector, etc. The forecast charts typically look out to four years ahead. In addition, analytical graphics clearly present empirical evidence supporting the text.
Latest Data in Detailand#58; One to two pages of summary analysis and associated graphics that offer a 10 to 15 year snapshot of the week's data releases. .
The Week Aheadand#58; A chart of scheduled data releases including the last release and consensus forecast.
Key Indicatorsand#58; Eurozone table showing monthly percentage changes for the past year for the followingand#58; Industrial production; unemployment; CPI; business and consumer confidence; and trade.
Financial Indicatorsand#58; Eurozone table showing monthly percentage changes for the past year for interest and exchange rates, money supply, share price indices and net foreign direct investment.