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Country Economic Forecasts > Macedonia Fyr

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

GDP growth in 2015 was above expectation at 3.7% and the outlook is for medium-term growth to stay above 3%, but risks remain unusually high until the current prolonged political stand-off is resolved. The ruling party remains in power only because a renewed opposition boycott forced the postponement of early elections due in Q2. When held, the elections could see an indecisive result, or divisive constitutional reform to try to keep minority parties in the coalition. Further election delay could hurt EU relations and cause more severe disorder.

Inflation, mildly negative in 2014-15, will return this year, but is set to stay low as monetary policy remains tight to keep the MKD stable. Although the uncertainty forced an interest rate rise in May, investment will continue to drive growth (along with consumption) in 2016-18, helped by Eurozone export demand and a relatively low-tax, low-regulation environment.

The ongoing political crisis has the positive effect of forcing institutional reform to re-involve the opposition parties and deepening the engagement of EU and NATO, which are likely to step up economic and diplomatic support to prevent a breakdown even if accession plans stay stalled. There remains scope for early elections to restore a stable government, but any prolongation of the political stand-off through Q3 could cut growth and raise inflation by curbing investment and putting downward pressure on the MKD, forcing more rate rises.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Macedonia Fyr

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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