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Country Economic Forecasts > Macedonia Fyr

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 7 pages

December's election has left political divisions unresolved, with the VMRO more heavily reliant on Albanian parties' support for a new coalition, and the opposition strengthened without being able to take power. However, the economy remains on track for 2.4% growth in 2016 and then picking up to over 3% a year in 2017-19 as exports and public infrastructure spending offset weak private investment (which could still rebound if EU-driven business reforms continue). Inflation averaged close to zero in 2016, and will stay close to Eurozone rates as GDP accelerates.

Political risks remain high because Nikola Gruevski, although best-placed to return as premier, will have difficulty forming a new coalition without concessions on Albanian rights that divide his own party. The opposition will seek to divide the coalition or may resume its parliamentary boycott due to disputed results. Its accusations of capture of state institutions by the VMRO are partly upheld by the latest EU progress report, which notes a slowdown in business reform and backsliding over judicial independence.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Macedonia Fyr
Macedoniaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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