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Myanmar Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 73 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Myanmar upstream segment remains a potential high-risk, high-reward play, with a host ofIOCs engaged in various exploration and production plays in the country's oil and gas blocks. Thecountry's attractive economic growth outlook and fuels demand growth forecasts have already attractedsignificant interest from international firms - such as Indian Oil and Pertamina, which haveannounced intention to establish a foothold in the country's downstream sector. Rising demand and exportobligations will pressure domestic gas supplies, rendering the country to turn to LNG imports in the latterhalf of the decade.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- Despite low oil prices, Myanmar's exploration profile remains favourable, with nine production sharingcontracts (PSCs) signed with international oil companies (IOCs) in 2015 alone and a further 11 3Dseismic survey campaigns sanctioned in end-2015.

- Myanmar exports about 80.0% of its gas production as the previous junta government over-contracted itsgas to overseas buyers. This will require the country to resort to LNG imports to meet export obligationsand offset rising domestic demand.

- The successful and timely construction of an LNG import terminal at the Dawei SEZ project remainscritical to avert a potential gas shortfall in Myanmar. We anticipate the terminal to be operational by2020.

- The government remains highly open to attracting greater foreign capital into its oil and gas sector.Tenders to form a refined fuels import and distribution joint-venture with Myanma Petroleum ProductsEnterprise (MPPE) has attracted interest from the likes of Indian Oil Corporation.

Table Of Contents

Myanmar Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Myanmar 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: PSCs Signed In 2015 12
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Myanmar 2014-2019) 13
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Myanmar 2020-2025) 13
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Myanmar - Key Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Oil Production (Myanmar 2014-2019) 20
Table: Oil Production (Myanmar 2020-2025) 20
Upstream Production - Gas 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Gas Production (Myanmar 2014-2019) 23
Table: Gas Production (Myanmar 2020-2025) 23
Refining 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Myanmar 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Myanmar 2020-2025) 26
Refined Fuels Consumption 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Myanmar 2014-2019) 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Myanmar 2020-2025) 29
Gas Consumption 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Myanmar 2014-2019) 33
Table: Gas Consumption (Myanmar 2020-2025) 33
Trade - Oil 34
Crude Oil: Latest Updates 34
Crude Oil: Structural Trends 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Myanmar 2014-2019) 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Myanmar 2020-2025) 35
Fuels Trade: Latest Updates 35
Fuels Trade: Structural Trends 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Myanmar 2014-2019) 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Myanmar 2020-2025) 37
Trade - (Pipeline And LNG) 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Myanmar 2014-2019) 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Myanmar 2020-2025) 40
Industry Risk/Reward Index 42
Table: Asia's Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 42
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 45
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 47
Myanmar - Risk/Reward Index 48
Upstream Index - Rewards 48
Upstream Index - Risks 49
Downstream Index 49
Market Overview 50
Myanmar Energy Market Overview 50
Regulatory Structure 50
Fiscal Regime 51
Table: Myanmar - Upstream Tax Regime 51
Licensing Regime 51
Table: Myanmar - Contracts and Licensing Regime (Onshore) 52
Table: Onshore PSC Production Split 52
Table: Onshore PSC Production Bonus 53
Table: Myanmar - Contracts And Licensing Regime (Offshore) 54
Table: Offshore PSC Production Split 54
Table: Offshore PSC Production Bonus 55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 56
Table: Oil Refineries 56
Oil Storage 56
Pipelines 57
LNG Terminals 57
Regional Overview 59
Asia - Positive Gas Output Growth In Conflict With Bearish Oil Outlook 59
Glossary 66
Table: Glossary Of Terms 66
Methodology 68
Industry Forecast Methodology 68
Source 70
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 70
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 72
Table: Weighting 73

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