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Botswana Mining Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 56 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Botswana's mining industry has considerable potential, with sizeable mineral depositscomplemented by a stable political climate and supportive regulatory environment.Latest Updates & Forecasts

- In April 2016, UK-owned diamond exploring company Botswana Diamonds begun drilling at the PL260and PL21 licences in the Orapa mining province. The company secured exploration rights for the area in2015 as part of a 50:50 joint venture (JV) with Russian miner, Alrosa. In the same month, the companyannounced its interim results for the six-month period ending December 31, 2015, reporting a net loss ofUSD388,000. Botswana Diamonds chairman John Teeling attributed the loss to the current depression inglobal diamond prices and a lack of investor interest in exploration companies.

- BMI's short-term outlook for Botswana's mining sector remains bearish, though we see productionrecovering from 2017 as global diamond prices stabilise.

- We have raised our coal price forecasts due to a more aggressive contraction in global mine productionthan we anticipated, predominately in China. We now forecast Newcastle coal to average USD53.0/tonnein 2016 (previously USD51.0/tonne) and USD57.0/tonne in 2017 tonne (previously USD52.0/tonne)(see: 'Thermal Coal: Upward Revision On Supply Curbs', June 23 2016).

- In March 2016, the CEO of state-owned Botswana Oil Company, Willie Mokgatlhe, said that thecompany was exploring opportunities for coal beneficiation. The move would see the government start toleverage the country's considerable coal reserves by converting them into liquid energy products.

- Although Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s coal production growth will remain positive, low coal prices willreduce the sector's overall investment attractiveness, limiting new projects coming online. In 2016, SSAwill produce 270mn tonnes (mnt) of coal, accounting for 3.7% of global coal production. We expectSSA's share to increase marginally to 3.8% by 2020 on the back of a number of new projects comingonline.

Table Of Contents

Botswana Mining Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Botswana Mining Industry Value Forecast (2015-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Diamond: Investment To Grow, Despite Low Prices 10
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Botswana 2012-2020) 10
Table: Botswana - Main Diamond Projects 13
Coal: Government Recognising Industry's Potential 14
Table: Coal Production (Botswana 2012-2020) 14
Table: Botswana - Coal Deposits 16
Industry Risk/Reward Index 17
Botswana Risk/Reward Index 17
Rewards 17
Risks 17
Africa - Risk/Reward Index 18
Key Takeaways 18
Latest Revisions 19
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Indices 20
Regulatory Development 21
Commodities Forecast 22
Commodities Outlook 22
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 22
Competitive Landscape 24
International and Domestic Key Players 24
Table: Africa - Largest Mining companies 26
Company Profile 28
Anglo American 28
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 29
Table: Anglo American - Key Projects 33
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data 35
Norilsk Nickel 36
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 38
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Projects 42
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data 44
Regional Overview 45
Sub-Saharan Africa Overview 45
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector 51
Methodology 53
Industry Forecast Methodology 53
Sources 54
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 55
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 56

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