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Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 123 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Regulatory uncertainty and low oil prices will impede exploration in Indonesia at least atpresent. Though refinery upgrades and newbuild projects are drawing interest from national oil companies,they are progressing slowly and Indonesia will remain a large importer of refined fuels.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts


- We believe that the proposed amendment to Indonesia's oil and gas law will create regulatoryuncertainty. Together with the low oil price environment, it will serve to dampen investor interest in theupcoming licensing round in 2016.

- We have revised up our forecast for Indonesia's 2016 crude oil and gas production, as higher-thanexpectedproduction ramp-up at several major projects will offset mature field decline. Production willfall from 2017 for crude oil and from 2018 for gas.

- We have downgraded Indonesia's refining capacity forecast. We believe that delays to the upgrading ofthe Cilacap refinery, the first among a pipeline of refinery upgrade and newbuild projects, will push backsuccessive projects.

Table Of Contents

Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Uptream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Distribution Of CBM In Indonesia 15
Table: CBM Block Holders 16
Table: Shale Targets In Indonesia 18
Table: Gas Pricing In Indonesia (2011) 19
Upstream Projects 20
Table: Indonesia - Major Upstream Projects 20
Upstream Production - Oil 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Oil Production (Indonesia 2014-2019) 43
Table: Oil Production (Indonesia 2020-2025) 43
Upstream Production - Gas 44
Latest Updates 44
Structural Trends 44
Table: Gas Production (Indonesia 2014-2019) 46
Table: Gas Production (Indonesia 2020-2025) 46
Refining 47
Latest Updates 47
Structural Trends 47
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Indonesia 2014-2019) 51
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Indonesia 2020-2025) 51
Refined Fuels Consumption 52
Latest Updates 52
Structural Trends 52
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Indonesia 2014-2019) 54
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Indonesia 2020-2025) 54
Gas Consumption 55
Latest Updates 55
Structural Trends 55
Table: National Infrastructure Development Plan 2016 57
Table: Gas Consumption (Indonesia 2014-2019) 58
Table: Gas Consumption (Indonesia 2020-2025) 58
Trade - Oil 59
Crude Oil 59
Latest Updates 59
Structural Trends 59
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Indonesia 2014-2020) 62
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Indonesia 2020-2025) 62
Fuels Trade 62
Latest Updates 62
Structural Trends 63
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Indonesia 2014-2019) 65
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Indonesia 2020-2025) 65
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 66
Latest Updates 66
Structural Trends 66
Table: Challenges Facing Major Pre-FID LNG Export Projects In Indonesia 68
Table: BMI Japan Korea Marker Forecast 69
Table: Gas Net Exports (Indonesia 2014-2019) 70
Table: Gas Net Exports (Indonesia 2020-2025) 71
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 72
Asia - Risk/Reward Index 72
Table: Asia's Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 72
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 75
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 77
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Index 79
Upstream Index - Overview 79
Upstream Index - Rewards 79
Upstream Index - Risks 79
Downstream Index - Overview 80
Market Overview 81
Indonesia Energy Market Overview 81
Regulatory Structure 81
Fiscal Regime 82
Table: Indonesia - Upstream Tax Regime 82
Licensing Regime 83
Table: Indonesia - Licensing Regime 83
Table: New Local Content Requirement 84
Licensing Rounds 86
Table: 2015 Licensing Round 87
Table: 2014 First Petroleum Licensing Round 88
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 90
Oil Refineries 90
Table: Refineries In Indonesia 90
Service Stations 92
Oil Terminals/Ports/Storage Units 92
Table: Crude Oil and Oil Products Terminals In Indonesia 93
Oil Pipelines 94
LNG Liquefaction Terminals 95
Table: LNG Liquefaction Terminals In Indonesia 95
LNG Regasification Terminals 97
Table: LNG Regasification Terminals In Indonesia 97
Gas Pipelines 100
Competitive Landscape 103
Company Profile 106
Pertamina 106
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Indonesia 107
Table: Major Downstream Assets In Indonesia 107
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 108
Regional Overview 109
Asia - Positive Gas Output Growth In Conflict With Bearish Oil Outlook 109
Glossary 116
Table: Glossary Of Terms 116
Methodology 118
Industry Forecast Methodology 118
Source 120
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 120
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 122
Table: Weighting 123

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