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Italy Tourism Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 28 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Our current forecast envisages a positive outlook for the Italian tourism sector in 2016 andbeyond, out towards the end of our current forecast period in 2020. We believe that the Italian tourismsector as a whole is well developed and benefits from the status of Italy as a popular tourist destination.Italy has long been viewed as a destination that draws a wide variety of travellers to its rich and vibranthistory, architectural and historical landmarks, pristine beaches and hospitable culture. Out towards ourpresent forecast period, we are expecting total arrivals to grow significantly, jumping from an estimated84.8mn in 2016 to over 96.55mn by end of 2020. Key drivers of growth boosting inbound arrivals will be arelatively weaker euro, improving economic conditions in crucial source markets and the increasingattractiveness of Italy as a secure summer holiday destination as many budget destinations such as Turkeyand Egypt face geopolitical and security challenges. Furthermore, economic prosperity in Asia and theMiddle-East will also contribute to strong tourism links with Italy over the medium- and long-terms withQatar in particular looking to Italy as a key destination.

Key Updates And Forecasts

- We forecast 2.8% growth in international inbound visitors in 2016 with an estimated 84.8mn touristsexpected by December 31, 2016. By end of 2020, we expect this number to rise to over 96.5mn. A weakeuro and improving economic outlooks in source markets are driving high tourist number growth.

- International tourism receipts in Italy are set to reach an estimated USD56.42bn, a number we seegrowing at 10.8% y-o-y on average (2016-2020) with receipts totalling USD87.27 by 2020.

- We continue to believe that developing tourism links with new source markets such as Middle-East andAsia-Pacific will be crucial in driving up tourism numbers as rising GDP figures, growing private finalconsumption levels and increasing disposable spending powers in Asia will contribute to growth in theItalian tourism industry.

- We have made some revisions to our UK visitors to Italy forecast this quarter to account for the Brexitrelateduncertainty. We believe that the rapid decline in the value of the currency as a result of therecently held referendum may slow down UK tourist growth to Italy over the short-to-medium term.Nevertheless, we do not believe that this will have a significant impact on tourism over the long term.

- Plans have been announced to refurbish and develop a number of disused government buildings intoroadside stops for so-called slow-tourists. The old lodges, originally built as accommodation for roadworkers, will be renovated into hotels and shops, and leaders for the projects are currently being sourced.Initially 30 locations have been identified but over 1000 could be developed.

Table Of Contents

Italy Tourism Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Key Forecasts (Italy 2013-2020) 5
SWOT 7
Tourism 7
Industry Forecast 9
Table: Inbound Tourism (Italy 2013-2020) 13
Table: Tourism Receipts (Italy 2013-2020) 14
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Italy 2013-2020) 16
Table: Tourist Departures and Consumption (Italy 2013-2020) 17
Industry Risk/Reward Index 18
Table: Western Europe Tourism Risk/Reward Index 18
Rewards 19
Risks 19
Market Overview 21
Competitive Landscape 23
Domestic Hotel Groups 23
Table: Domestic Hotel Groups 23
International Hotel Groups 24
Table: International Hotel Groups 24
Methodology 25
Industry Forecast Methodology 25
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 26
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 28

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