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Lebanon Telecommunications Report 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 41 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We retain a negative outlook for the Lebanese telecommunications market, owing to a variety offactors. A lack of true competition in the mobile market has held back Lebanon's growth potential, so thegovernment has come up with plans to liberalise the market including launching a third mobile marketoperator, but BMI believes they will have little real effect. This is potentially why the mobile market hasfailed to grow over the last four years. BMI believes this situation is unlikely to change over our forecastand we therefore downgraded the outlook for mobile growth to 2020. On the upside, operators havebenefited from an increase in data service usage as the Ministry reported 62% of the market signed up touse mobile data by end-2015.Latest Updates & Industry Developments

- Minister Harb's Agenda 2020 involved deploying nationwide 4.5G serviced by end-2016 and developing5G services for the future.

Following an agreement signed in 2016, we remain sceptical about its actualdeliverability.

- Lebanon's national fixed provider Ogero remains embroiled in a national illegal internet scandalinvolving the company's director general and various private companies, accused of illegal sharingbandwidth profits.

- Mobile growth will average just 1.45% over 2016-2020, with penetration remaining under 90% by end ofour forecast period.

- The fixed-line market will buck regional trends and continue to show growth, although less than 1% ayear from 2016 onwards.

- Data for Lebanon remains elusive but the ministry communicated that 4.5mn mobile accounts wereexisting at end-2015, with 2.8mn subscribers using mobile data services.

- Broadband growth will be the fastest area of expansion in the market. The introduction of 3G and 4Gdedicated mobile broadband will be the segment's main driver.

Table Of Contents

Lebanon Telecommunications Report 2016
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT 7
Industry 7
Industry Forecast 9
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Lebanon 2013-2020) 13
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 14
Middle East and North Africa Risk/Reward Index 14
Table: Mena Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q316 16
Lebanon Risk Reward Ratings 17
Market Overview 19
Market Overview 19
Market Growth 21
ARPU 22
Networks 23
Mobile Content 24
Regulatory Development 27
Table: Regulatory Agencies 27
Latest Developments 28
Demographic Forecast 30
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Lebanon 1990-2025) 31
Table: Key Population Ratios (Lebanon 1990-2025) 31
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Lebanon 1990-2025) 32
Table: Population By Age Group (Lebanon 1990-2025) 32
Table: Population By Age Group % (Lebanon 1990-2025) 33
Glossary 35
Table: Glossary Of Terms 35
Methodology 37
Industry Forecast Methodology 37
Sources 39
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 39
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 40
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 41

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