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  4. > Venezuela Insurance Report Q4 2015

Venezuela Insurance Report Q4 2015

  • September 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The short term outlook for the country's insurance market is extremely unsettled Inflation inVenezuela is rampant and the local currency continues to lose value against the US dollar At present, weexpect some growth in the industry by the end of our forecast period in 2019 - based primarily onincreasing demand for private health insurance - though we caution that significant headwinds toexpansion remainThe government is highly dependent on the oil sector, and with the price nearly halved over the past 12months, the country's external balances have deteriorated significantly

Meanwhile, political tensions haveresulting in the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) seeing its approval ratings plummet,creating an environment in which President Nicolás Maduro is ill-situated to pull back on spending In theabsence of sufficient tax revenues, the government has had to fund its gaping fiscal deficit through printingmoney, which has stocked an inflation that is among the world's highest Indeed, although authorities havenot released price growth data since the end of last year (when headline inflation stood at just under 700%y-o-y), we believe that it is likely that it has already broken into the triple digits In addition, Venezuela'spoor business environment will further weigh on growth, impacting private investment and householdpurchasing power respectively, and as household budgets shrink, and belts are tightened, insurance is one ofthe first non-essentials to be jettisoned

The strong premium growth we forecast in both the life and non lifemarkets is not, therefore, indicative of a healthy expanding market and strong consumer appetite Instead itreflects rampant inflation, and in USD terms we anticipate a plummeting insurance market value, withpremiums seeing high double digit declines across most segments of between 50% and 60% over the courseof 2015

Table Of Contents

Venezuela Insurance Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
Political 11
Economic 12
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 15
Life Premiums Forecast 15
Life Premiums 15
Table: Gross Life Premiums Written (Venezuela 2012-2019) 17
Life Claims 17
Table: Life Insurance Claims (Venezuela 2007-2013) 17
Life Insurance Drivers 17
Table: Life Expectancy by Gender (Venezuela 2012-2019) 18
Table: Demographic Breakdown (Venezuela 2012-2019) 19
Non-Life Premiums Forecast 20
Non-Life Premiums 20
Table: Gross Non-Life Premiums Written (Venezuela 2012-2019) 21
Non-Life Claims 21
Table: Non-Life Insurance Claims (Venezuela 2007-2013) 22
Table: Non-Life Insurance Claims by Line (Venezuela 2007-2013) 23
Non-Life Sub-Sector Forecast 24
Table: Non-Life % Breakdown (Venezuela 2012-2019) 26
Motor Vehicle And Transport Insurance 26
Table: Motor Vehicle Insurance (Venezuela 2012-2019) 27
Table: Insurance Key Drivers, Autos (Venezuela 2012-2019) 27
Table: Transport Insurance (Venezuela 2012-2019) 28
Property Insurance 29
Table: Property Insurance (Venezuela 2012-2019) 30
Health And Personal Accident Insurance 30
Table: Health Insurance (Venezuela 2012-2019) 31
Table: Insurance Key Drivers, Private Health Expenditure (Venezuela 2012-2019) 32
Table: Personal Accident Insurance (Venezuela 2012-2019) 33
General Liability And Credit Insurance 33
Table: General Liability Insurance (Venezuela 2012-2019) 34
Table: Credit/Financial Guarantee Insurance (Venezuela 2012-2019) 34
Industry Risk Reward Index 35
Latin America Insurance Risk/Reward Index 35
Table: Latin America and the Caribbean Insurance Risk/Reward Index 36
Market Overview 37
Life Market Overview 37
Product Offering 37
Competitive Landscape 37
Table: Life Insurance Market (USDmn) 2008-2013 39
Non Life Market Overview 40
Product Offering 40
Competitive Landscape 41
Table: Company Performance, Non-Life Insurance Market (USDmn) 2008-2013 43
Company Profile 44
Caracas de Liberty Mutual 44
Horizonte 47
Seguros Mercantil 49
MAPFRE La Seguridad 51
Demographic Forecast 53
Demographic Outlook 2015 53
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Venezuela 1990-2025) 54
Table: Key Population Ratios (Venezuela 1990-2025) 54
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Venezuela 1990-2025) 55
Table: Population By Age Group (Venezuela 1990-2025) 55
Table: Population By Age Group % (Venezuela 1990-2025) 56
Methodology 58
Industry Forecast Methodology 58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Table: Indicators 63
Table: Weighting of Indicators 64

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